Ownership-change pipeline

CHOW Radar

p(change of ownership, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

16,900

active SNFs, scored

Model

p_chow_12m v0.1

deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

49.6%

of actual next-12m sales on holdout

Base rate

2.4%

observed 12m CHOW rate, training panels

Ranked by sale probability

251–300

#	Facility	p(CHOW 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
251	LEE HEALTHCARE	11.6%	98.5	D	MA	LEE	88	NEXT STEP HEALTHCARE LLC
252	OLNEY REHABILITATION AND CARE CENTER	11.6%	98.5	C	TX	OLNEY	0	OLNEY HAMILTON HOSPITAL DISTRICT
253	DADE HEALTH AND REHAB	11.5%	98.5	B	GA	TRENTON	71	EMPLOYEE STOCK OWNERSHIP PLAN OF SELECT HEALTH CARE INC TRUST
254	WOODLAND HILLS HEALTHCARE AND REHABILITATION	11.5%	98.5	B	AR	JACKSONVILLE	120	LTC MANAGEMENT SERVICES LLC
255	AVAMERE REHABILITATION OF KING CITY	11.5%	98.5	B	OR	TIGARD	148	AVAMERE GROUP LLC
256	Premier Rehab and Healthcare at Burlington	11.5%	98.5	C	VT	Burlington	164	—
257	Accura HealthCare of Pierce	11.5%	98.5	C	NE	Pierce	75	ARBORETA HEALTH AND REHABILITATION CENTERS LLC
258	CARNEGIE NURSING HOME, INC.	11.5%	98.5	A	OK	CARNEGIE	100	—
259	BELLA TERRA BLOOMINGDALE	11.4%	98.5	D	IL	BLOOMINGDALE	166	CHAIM RAJCHENBACH DESCENDANTS TR UA 04282008
260	CURRENT RIVER NURSING CENTER, INC	11.4%	98.5	F	MO	DONIPHAN	120	—
261	Avir at Kennedale	11.4%	98.5	B	TX	Kennedale	0	SUMMIT LTC MANAGEMENT LLC
262	THE HILLTOP ON MAIN	11.4%	98.5	F	TX	MERIDIAN	0	—
263	MINOT HEALTH AND REHAB, LLC	11.4%	98.5	D	ND	MINOT	108	—
264	DOCTORS NURSING & REHAB CENTER	11.4%	98.4	F	IL	SALEM	120	—
265	ZIONSVILLE MEADOWS	11.3%	98.4	C	IN	ZIONSVILLE	167	AMERICAN SENIOR COMMUNITIES LLC
266	MEDINA NURSING CENTER	11.3%	98.4	B	IL	DURAND	89	OXMATI MANAGEMENT LLC
267	WESTPARK A WATERS COMMUNITY	11.3%	98.4	D	IN	INDIANAPOLIS	89	MAJOR HOSPITAL
268	Complete Care at Laurelton, LLC	11.3%	98.4	F	NJ	BRICK	180	EEF CAPITAL LLC
269	Arc at Kankakee	11.3%	98.4	C	IL	KANKAKEE	51	ASCENSION HEALTH SENIOR CARE
270	Windsor Healthcare Residence	11.3%	98.4	D	TX	Groesbeck	0	CORYELL COUNTY MEMORIAL HOSPITAL AUTHORITY
271	COPPERAS HOLLOW NURSING & REHABILITATION CENTER	11.3%	98.4	C	TX	CALDWELL	0	CORYELL COUNTY MEMORIAL HOSPITAL AUTHORITY
272	Apex Secure Care Brownfield	11.2%	98.4	C	TX	Brownfield	0	CHILDRESS COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT
273	Life Care Center of North Glendale	11.2%	98.4	B	AZ	GLENDALE	223	LIFE CARE CENTERS OF AMERICA INC
274	HERITAGE REHAB & LIVING CTR	11.2%	98.4	C	ME	WINTHROP	28	—
275	ELMWOOD ASSISTED LIVING & SKILLED NURSING OF FREMO	11.2%	98.4	C	OH	FREMONT	0	—
276	COTTON POINT LIVING CENTER	11.2%	98.4	F	MO	MATTHEWS	98	SOVEREIGN HEALTHCARE GROUP LLC
277	SEQUOYAH POINTE SKILLED NURSING AND THERAPY	11.2%	98.4	B	OK	TAHLEQUAH	125	BRIDGES ESOP INC
278	LIFE CARE CENTER OF GRANDVIEW	11.2%	98.4	D	MO	GRANDVIEW	172	LIFE CARE CENTERS OF AMERICA INC
279	Crestview Healthcare Residence	11.2%	98.4	C	TX	Waco	0	CORYELL COUNTY MEMORIAL HOSPITAL AUTHORITY
280	MARIES MANOR	11.2%	98.4	C	MO	VIENNA	98	LTC MANAGEMENT SERVICES LLC
281	Willow Park Health Care Center	11.1%	98.3	F	OK	Lawton	151	QUALITY CARE GIVERS INC
282	LIFE CARE CENTER OF PORT ORCHARD	11.1%	98.3	C	WA	PORT ORCHARD	125	LIFE CARE CENTERS OF AMERICA INC
283	Heritage Gardens Rehabilitation and Healthcare	11.1%	98.3	C	TX	Carrollton	0	EASTLAND MEMORIAL HOSPITAL DISTRICT
284	BRICKYARD HEALTHCARE - WILLOW SPRINGS CARE CENTER	11.1%	98.3	C	IN	INDIANAPOLIS	134	HENDRICKS COUNTY HOSPITAL
285	MEDICALODGES NEOSHO	11.1%	98.3	C	MO	NEOSHO	114	MEDICALODGES INC
286	THE BROADVIEW CENTER	11.0%	98.3	C	WA	SEATTLE	211	SAESSY IRREVOCABLE TRUST
287	Lubbock Health Care Center	11.0%	98.3	B	TX	Lubbock	0	HONOR X ENTERPRISES LLC
288	MI CASA NURSING CENTER	11.0%	98.3	C	AZ	MESA	180	LIFE CARE CENTERS OF AMERICA INC
289	Mountain View Rehabilitation and Healthcare Center	11.0%	98.3	B	KY	Pineville	115	PRINCIPLE LONG TERM CARE INC
290	LIFE CARE CENTER OF GWINNETT	11.0%	98.3	B	GA	LAWRENCEVILLE	163	LIFE CARE CENTERS OF AMERICA INC
291	FOREST HAVEN NURSING AND REHABILITATION CTR	11.0%	98.3	C	MD	CATONSVILLE	167	HUNT VALLEY HOLDINGS LLC
292	EDISON MANOR NURSING & REHABILITATION CENTER	10.9%	98.3	D	PA	NEW CASTLE	118	BNV DYNASTY LLC
293	CALIFORNIA CARE CENTER	10.9%	98.3	C	MO	CALIFORNIA	60	—
294	UNGER PARK POST ACUTE	10.9%	98.3	D	OH	BUCYRUS	86	PACS HOLDINGS LLC
295	HILLSBORO REHAB & HCC	10.9%	98.3	D	IL	HILLSBORO	121	WALNUT CREEK MANAGEMENT COMPANY LLC
296	WATERS OF TIPTON SKILLED NURSING FACILITY, THE	10.9%	98.3	D	IN	TIPTON	150	JOHNSON MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
297	WATERS OF LEBANON, THE	10.9%	98.3	B	IN	LEBANON	64	HENDRICKS COUNTY HOSPITAL
298	Natchitoches Nursing and Rehabilitation Center, LL	10.9%	98.2	C	LA	Natchitoches	98	NORBERT A BENNETT IRRV TR FBO CHILDREN
299	Autumn Care of Marshville	10.8%	98.2	D	NC	Marshville	110	BNV DYNASTY LLC
300	SOLIDAGO HEALTH AND REHABILITATION	10.8%	98.2	B	TX	TEXAS CITY	0	LIBERTY COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT NO 1

Showing 251–300 of 16,900 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.