Composite
56.6 / 100 percentile
| Component | Percentile | Raw | Weight | Weight share | Contribution | Counts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| financial risk | 82.7 | 69.4 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 19.08 | in index |
| staffing risk | 70.5 | 70.5 | 0.25 | 0.1923 | 13.56 | in index |
| regulatory risk | 44.0 | 32.8 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 10.15 | in index |
| chow risk | 46.4 | 44.6 | 0.15 | 0.1154 | 5.35 | in index |
| billing conduct | 11.3 | 10.0 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 2.61 | in index |
| Kind | Finding | Signal | Subject | First seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| anomaly | Quarter-over-quarter staffing cliff | −49% QoQ | this facility | 2026-07-29 |
| connection | Owner fleet risk far above national | +28.7 vs natl | LINCOLN JUDY | 55 facilities |
| connection | Owner fleet risk far above national | +28.5 vs natl | LTC MANAGEMENT SERVICES LLC | 37 facilities |
| connection | Owner fleet risk far above national | +27.5 vs natl | LINCOLN JAMES | 56 facilities |
| connection | Owner fleet risk far above national | +25.2 vs natl | DRAKE TIMOTHY | 21 facilities |
| Score type | Score | Grade | Model | Status | Registry model notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| billing conduct | 10.0 | A | v0.1-pacpuf-snf | default · in composite | R22. PAC PUF SNF 2023. PDPM coding intensity vs acuity, stay length, charge markup. |
| chow risk | 25.0 | B | v0.1-pos | default · in composite | Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure. |
| chow risk | 64.1 | C | v0.6 | default · in composite | |
| financial risk | 69.4 | D | v0.5 | default · in composite | R18. |
| p adverse action 12m | 0.3 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite. |
| p chow 12m | 11.5 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite. |
| regulatory risk | 32.8 | B | v0.3 | default · in composite | Deficiency-based, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.5-pos. |
| staffing risk | 70.5 | D | v0.3 | default · in composite | Cost-report staffing, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.4-pos, which covers ICF/IID from POS. |
| financial risk | 55.8 | C | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 35.8 | B | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 53.9 | C | v0.3 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 72.9 | D | v0.4 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 32.7 | B | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 32.7 | B | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 70.5 | D | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 70.5 | D | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy | 0.43 | +0.78 | |
| For-profit ownership | 1.00 | +0.69 | |
| Never sold on record | 1.00 | +0.62 | |
| Current owner tenure (years) | 25.00 | +0.57 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.42 | |
| Chain size (log) | 3.64 | +0.37 | |
| Ownership changes, last 5 years | 0.00 | +0.20 | |
| Deficiencies, last 12 months | 0.00 | -0.17 |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deficiencies, last 12 months | 0.00 | +1.43 | |
| Occupancy | 0.43 | +1.35 | |
| Chain size (log) | 3.64 | -0.91 | |
| For-profit ownership | 1.00 | -0.69 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.39 | |
| Fine amount, 12m (log) | 0.00 | +0.18 | |
| Never sold on record | 1.00 | +0.12 | |
| Current owner tenure (years) | 25.00 | +0.11 |
| 2025Q4 HPRD | This facility | AR median | National median | National p25–p75 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total nurse | 2.98 | 3.38 | 3.28 | 2.90–3.77 |
| RN | 0.21 | 0.15 | 0.39 | 0.25–0.58 |
| Weekend total | 2.61 | 3.09 | 3.11 | — |
| Weekday total | 3.12 | 3.46 | 3.35 | — |
| Quarter | Days | Avg census | Total HPRD | RN | LPN | CNA | Weekend | Contract % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025Q4 | 92 | 51.3 | 2.98 | 0.21 | 0.50 | 2.27 | 2.61 | 0.0% |
| 2025Q3 | 92 | 54.6 | 2.65 | 0.11 | 0.44 | 2.10 | 2.19 | 0.0% |
| 2025Q2 | 91 | 50.2 | 5.18 | 0.35 | 1.10 | 3.73 | 4.38 | 0.0% |
| 2025Q1 | 90 | 52.6 | 2.92 | 0.10 | 0.45 | 2.38 | 2.41 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q4 | 92 | 49.1 | 3.06 | 0.04 | 0.61 | 2.42 | 2.48 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q3 | 92 | 48.7 | 2.89 | 0.12 | 0.56 | 2.21 | 2.43 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q2 | 91 | 50.1 | 2.97 | 0.25 | 0.56 | 2.16 | 2.46 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q1 | 91 | 48.8 | 2.74 | 0.16 | 0.54 | 2.03 | 2.42 | 0.0% |
| 2023Q4 | 92 | 51.0 | 2.98 | 0.02 | 0.74 | 2.23 | 2.58 | 0.0% |
| 2023Q3 | 92 | 48.0 | 3.24 | 0.16 | 0.76 | 2.32 | 2.51 | 0.0% |
| 2023Q2 | 91 | 52.4 | 3.11 | 0.21 | 0.75 | 2.15 | 2.08 | 0.0% |
| 2023Q1 | 90 | 48.5 | 3.34 | 0.22 | 0.77 | 2.35 | 2.39 | 0.0% |
| 2022Q4 | 92 | 49.8 | 3.19 | 0.14 | 0.86 | 2.18 | 2.19 | 0.0% |
| 2022Q3 | 92 | 55.7 | 3.00 | 0.11 | 0.89 | 2.01 | 2.32 | 0.0% |
| 2022Q2 | 91 | 60.8 | 2.92 | 0.09 | 0.82 | 2.01 | 2.35 | 0.0% |
| 2022Q1 | 90 | 54.2 | 2.83 | 0.09 | 0.77 | 1.97 | 2.69 | 0.0% |
| Survey | Type | Tag | Deficiency | Scope | Corrected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-18 | Health | F0550 | Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights. | D | 2025-01-17 |
| 2024-12-18 | Health | F0554 | Allow residents to self-administer drugs if determined clinically appropriate. | D | 2025-01-17 |
| 2024-12-18 | Health | F0645 | PASARR screening for Mental disorders or Intellectual Disabilities | D | 2025-01-17 |
| 2024-12-18 | Health | F0661 | Ensure necessary information is communicated to the resident, and receiving health care provider at the time of a planned discharge. | D | 2025-01-17 |
| 2024-12-18 | Health | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | E | 2025-01-17 |
| 2024-12-18 | Health | F0761 | Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs. | E | 2025-01-17 |
| 2024-12-18 | Health | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | E | 2025-01-17 |
| 2024-12-18 | Health | F0838 | Conduct and document a facility-wide assessment to determine what resources are necessary to care for residents competently during both day-to-day operations (including nights and weekends) and emergencies. | F | 2025-01-17 |
| 2024-12-18 | Health | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | E | 2025-01-17 |
| 2024-12-18 | Health | F0919 | Make sure that a working call system is available in each resident's bathroom and bathing area. | E | 2025-01-17 |
| 2024-05-23 | Health · complaint | F0677 | Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable. | E | 2024-06-21 |
| 2024-05-23 | Health · complaint | F0804 | Ensure food and drink is palatable, attractive, and at a safe and appetizing temperature. | E | 2024-06-21 |
| 2023-11-22 | Health | F0558 | Reasonably accommodate the needs and preferences of each resident. | D | 2023-12-20 |
| 2023-11-22 | Health | F0584 | Honor the resident's right to a safe, clean, comfortable and homelike environment, including but not limited to receiving treatment and supports for daily living safely. | E | 2023-12-20 |
| 2023-11-22 | Health | F0677 | Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable. | D | 2023-12-20 |
| 2023-11-22 | Health | F0684 | Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals. | D | 2023-12-20 |
| 2023-11-22 | Health | F0695 | Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed. | E | 2023-12-20 |
| 2023-11-22 | Health | F0726 | Ensure that nurses and nurse aides have the appropriate competencies to care for every resident in a way that maximizes each resident's well being. | E | 2023-12-20 |
| 2023-11-22 | Health | F0761 | Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs. | E | 2023-12-20 |
| 2023-11-22 | Health | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | E | 2023-12-20 |
| 2023-11-22 | Health | F0847 | Inform resident or representatives choice to enter into binding arbitration agreement and right to refuse. | E | 2023-12-20 |
| 2023-11-22 | Health | F0848 | Provide a neutral and fair arbitration process and agree to arbitrator and venue. | E | 2023-12-20 |
| 2023-11-22 | Health | F0865 | Have a plan that describes the process for conducting QAPI and QAA activities. | E | 2023-12-20 |
| 2023-11-22 | Health | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | E | 2023-12-20 |
| 2023-06-01 | Health · complaint | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | E | 2023-06-23 |
| 2022-12-01 | Health | F0553 | Allow resident to participate in the development and implementation of his or her person-centered plan of care. | E | 2022-12-31 |
| 2022-12-01 | Health | F0584 | Honor the resident's right to a safe, clean, comfortable and homelike environment, including but not limited to receiving treatment and supports for daily living safely. | E | 2022-12-31 |
| 2022-12-01 | Health | F0609 | Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities. | D | 2022-12-31 |
| 2022-12-01 | Health | F0677 | Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable. | D | 2022-12-31 |
| 2022-12-01 | Health | F0758 | Implement gradual dose reductions(GDR) and non-pharmacological interventions, unless contraindicated, prior to initiating or instead of continuing psychotropic medication; and PRN orders for psychotropic medications are only used when the medication is necessary and PRN use is limited. | D | 2022-12-31 |
| 2022-12-01 | Health | F0803 | Ensure menus must meet the nutritional needs of residents, be prepared in advance, be followed, be updated, be reviewed by dietician, and meet the needs of the resident. | F | 2022-12-31 |
| 2022-12-01 | Health | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | F | 2022-12-31 |
| 2022-12-01 | Health | F0835 | Administer the facility in a manner that enables it to use its resources effectively and efficiently. | F | 2022-12-31 |
| 2022-12-01 | Health | F0837 | Establish a governing body that is legally responsible for establishing and implementing policies for managing and operating the facility and appoints a properly licensed administrator responsible for managing the facility. | F | 2022-12-31 |
| 2022-12-01 | Health | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | E | 2022-12-31 |
| Owner | Role | Pct | From | Status | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LINCOLN, JAMES | 5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 50% | 2018-06-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| LINCOLN, JUDY | 5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 50% | 2018-06-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| DRAKE, TIMOTHY | CORPORATE OFFICER | — | 2022-03-28 | current | pecos_ownership |
| DRAKE, TIMOTHY | CONTRACTED MANAGING EMPLOYEE | — | 2022-03-22 | current | pecos_ownership |
| LTC MANAGEMENT SERVICES LLC | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2018-06-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| TIMOTHY DRAKE | CORPORATE OFFICER | 100% | 2022-03-28 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| TIMOTHY DRAKE | CONTRACTED MANAGING EMPLOYEE | 100% | 2022-03-22 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| JAMES LINCOLN | 5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 50% | 2018-06-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| JUDY LINCOLN | 5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 50% | 2018-06-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| Close | Facility | Price | $/bed | Cap rate | Beds | Buyer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-08-02 | LAKE FOREST SENIOR LIVING AT HOT SPRINGS VILLAGE | — | — | — | 50 | HOT SPRINGS SNF OPCO LLC |
| 2024-08-02 | LAKE FOREST SENIOR LIVING AT MOUNTAIN HOME | — | — | — | 70 | MOUNTAIN HOME SNF OPCO LLC |
| 2024-08-01 | THE BLOSSOMS AT STAR CITY REHAB & NURSING CENTER | — | — | — | 95 | N DREW STREET OPERATING LLC |
| 2024-08-01 | THE BLOSSOMS AT OAKDALE REHAB & NURSING CENTER | — | — | — | 154 | CYNTHIA STREET OPERATING LLC |
| 2024-08-01 | THE SPRINGS OF WALDRON | — | — | — | 105 | WALDRON HEALTHCARE LLC |
| 2024-05-01 | THE SPRINGS OF FAIRFIELD BAY | — | — | — | 55 | INDIAN ROCK HEALTHCARE LLC |
| 2024-01-01 | THE SPRINGS OF RED OAK | — | — | — | 80 | RED OAK HEALTHCARE LLC |
| 2023-06-01 | Pine Bluff Transitional Care | — | — | — | 177 | PINE BLUFF NURSING, LLC |
| 2023-04-01 | The Blossoms at Berryville Rehab & Nursing Center | — | — | — | 114 | HAMMONS AVENUE OPERATING LLC |
| 2023-04-01 | THE BLOSSOMS AT EUREKA SPRINGS REHAB & NURSING CEN | — | — | — | 100 | HUNTSVILLE ROAD OPERATING LLC |
| 2023-04-01 | THE BLOSSOMS AT VAN BUREN REHAB AND NURSING CENTER | — | — | — | 129 | MAIN STREET OPERATING LLC |
| 2023-04-01 | PIGGOTT HEALTHCARE & SENIOR LIVING, LLC | — | — | — | 105 | PIGGOTT HEALTHCARE & SENIOR LIVING, LLC |
| Geo | Kind | BR | Amount | As of | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| county 05119 | acs median gross | 0 | $885 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 05119 | fmr | 0 | $984 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 05119 | acs median gross | 1 | $904 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 05119 | fmr | 1 | $989 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 05119 | acs median gross | 2 | $1,062 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 05119 | fmr | 2 | $1,147 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 05119 | acs median gross | 3 | $1,262 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 05119 | fmr | 3 | $1,540 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 05119 | acs median gross | 4 | $1,539 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 05119 | fmr | 4 | $1,822 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 05119 | acs median gross | 5 | $1,219 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 05119 | acs median gross | $1,080 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| county 05119 | acs recent mover gross | $1,166 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 72076 | acs median gross | 0 | $500 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 72076 | acs median gross | 1 | $682 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 72076 | acs median gross | 2 | $807 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 72076 | acs median gross | 3 | $1,241 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 72076 | acs median gross | 4 | $1,444 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 72076 | acs median gross | 5 | $1,385 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 72076 | acs median gross | $958 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 72076 | acs recent mover gross | $1,208 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zip 72076 | payment standard 110 | 0 | $1,012 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 72076 | payment standard 90 | 0 | $828 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 72076 | safmr | 0 | $920 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 72076 | payment standard 110 | 1 | $1,012 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 72076 | payment standard 90 | 1 | $828 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 72076 | safmr | 1 | $920 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 72076 | payment standard 110 | 2 | $1,177 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 72076 | payment standard 90 | 2 | $963 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 72076 | safmr | 2 | $1,070 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 72076 | payment standard 110 | 3 | $1,584 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 72076 | payment standard 90 | 3 | $1,296 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 72076 | safmr | 3 | $1,440 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 72076 | payment standard 110 | 4 | $1,870 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 72076 | payment standard 90 | 4 | $1,530 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 72076 | safmr | 4 | $1,700 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |