Reads as: riskier than 67.8% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
IN median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
3.01
2.85
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.36
0.40
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
2.83
2.71
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.08
2.90
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
84.3
3.01
0.36
0.67
1.98
2.83
0.0%
2025Q3
92
88.8
2.58
0.39
0.58
1.61
2.37
0.0%
2025Q2
91
84.7
2.77
0.28
0.76
1.73
2.41
0.0%
2025Q1
90
81.6
2.48
0.33
0.58
1.56
2.34
0.0%
2024Q4
92
81.5
2.39
0.41
0.39
1.58
2.16
0.0%
2024Q3
92
76.3
2.68
0.51
0.46
1.71
2.56
0.0%
2024Q2
91
73.3
2.46
0.53
0.38
1.55
2.37
0.0%
2024Q1
91
66.7
2.66
0.44
0.50
1.72
2.46
0.0%
2023Q4
92
67.2
2.34
0.33
0.37
1.64
2.23
0.0%
2023Q3
92
62.4
2.40
0.39
0.40
1.61
2.17
0.0%
2023Q2
91
59.0
2.30
0.37
0.36
1.57
2.25
12.5%
2023Q1
90
60.3
2.28
0.39
0.30
1.59
2.20
22.6%
2022Q4
92
56.2
3.10
0.58
0.55
1.97
2.92
13.9%
2022Q3
92
61.5
3.00
0.71
0.44
1.84
2.82
53.1%
2022Q2
91
61.1
2.87
0.86
0.29
1.72
2.71
47.3%
2022Q1
90
59.9
3.39
0.79
0.62
1.97
3.33
59.9%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0
No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
18
D × 11E × 7
deficiencies by survey year
Survey
Type
Tag
Deficiency
Scope
Corrected
2026-01-28
Health
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
D
2026-02-13
2025-08-21
Health · complaint
F0677
Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable.
E
2025-09-05
2025-08-21
Health · complaint
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
D
2025-09-05
2025-08-21
Health · complaint
F0921
Make sure that the nursing home area is safe, easy to use, clean and comfortable for residents, staff and the public.
D
2025-09-05
2024-12-09
Health
F0565
Honor the resident's right to organize and participate in resident/family groups in the facility.
E
2025-01-09
2024-12-09
Health
F0623
Provide timely notification to the resident, and if applicable to the resident representative and ombudsman, before transfer or discharge, including appeal rights.
E
2024-10-24
2024-12-09
Health
F0677
Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable.
D
2025-01-09
2024-12-09
Health
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
D
2025-01-09
2024-12-09
Health
F0804
Ensure food and drink is palatable, attractive, and at a safe and appetizing temperature.
E
2025-01-09
2024-12-09
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
E
2025-01-09
2024-12-09
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
E
2025-01-09
2024-05-17
Health · complaint
F0744
Provide the appropriate treatment and services to a resident who displays or is diagnosed with dementia.
D
2024-06-15
2023-10-26
Health
F0677
Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable.
D
2023-12-13
2023-10-26
Health
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
D
2023-12-13
2023-10-26
Health
F0698
Provide safe, appropriate dialysis care/services for a resident who requires such services.
D
2023-12-13
2023-10-26
Health
F0760
Ensure that residents are free from significant medication errors.
D
2023-12-13
2023-10-26
Health
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
D
2023-12-13
2023-10-26
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
E
2023-12-13
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
17
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
AMERICAN SENIOR COMMUNITIES LLC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2012-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
BABCOCK, PAUL
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2020-09-30
current
pecos_ownership
GREENE, CATHY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2018-07-31
current
pecos_ownership
KELSEY, DONNA
CONTRACTED MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2016-06-01
current
pecos_ownership
STORDY, DAVID
CONTRACTED MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2016-09-15
current
pecos_ownership
TAYLOR, CHRIS
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2016-03-07
current
pecos_ownership
THOMAS, ROBERT
CONTRACTED MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2015-11-16
current
pecos_ownership
THE HEALTH AND HOSPITAL CORPORATION OF MARION COUNTY
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2012-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CATHY GREENE
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2018-07-31
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CHRIS TAYLOR
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2016-03-07
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DAVID STORDY
CONTRACTED MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2016-09-15
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DONNA KELSEY
CONTRACTED MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2016-06-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PAUL BABCOCK
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2020-09-30
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ROBERT THOMAS
CONTRACTED MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2015-11-16
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
TURTLE CREEK MANAGEMENT INC.
Other (financial or non-financial)
—
2022-01-01
ended 2022-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
TURTLE CREEK MANAGEMENT INC.
Other (financial or non-financial)
—
2021-01-01
ended 2021-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
TURTLE CREEK MANAGEMENT INC.
Other (financial or non-financial)
—
2020-01-01
ended 2020-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
5
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-12-31
$635,799
—
—
—
—
13
—
2023-12-31
$526,954
—
—
—
—
13
—
2022-12-31
$605,596
—
—
—
—
14
propco
2021-12-31
$624,582
—
—
—
—
15
propco
2020-12-31
$709,465
—
—
—
—
15
propco
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
33
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 18011
acs median gross
0
$454
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 18011
fmr
0
$1,118
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 18011
acs median gross
1
$1,153
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 18011
fmr
1
$1,267
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 18011
acs median gross
2
$1,462
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 18011
fmr
2
$1,473
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 18011
acs median gross
3
$1,339
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 18011
fmr
3
$1,907
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 18011
acs median gross
4
$2,363
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 18011
fmr
4
$2,338
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 18011
acs median gross
$1,359
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 18011
acs recent mover gross
$1,795
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 46077
acs median gross
1
$1,674
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 46077
acs median gross
2
$1,898
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 46077
acs median gross
3
$1,820
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 46077
acs median gross
4
$2,111
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 46077
acs median gross
$1,795
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 46077
acs recent mover gross
$1,849
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 46077
payment standard 110
0
$1,771
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 46077
payment standard 90
0
$1,449
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 46077
safmr
0
$1,610
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 46077
payment standard 110
1
$2,002
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 46077
payment standard 90
1
$1,638
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 46077
safmr
1
$1,820
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 46077
payment standard 110
2
$2,332
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 46077
payment standard 90
2
$1,908
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 46077
safmr
2
$2,120
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 46077
payment standard 110
3
$3,025
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 46077
payment standard 90
3
$2,475
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 46077
safmr
3
$2,750
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 46077
payment standard 110
4
$3,707
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 46077
payment standard 90
4
$3,033
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 46077
safmr
4
$3,370
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.