Ownership-change pipeline

Distress Radar

p(Medicare termination, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

15,359

active SNFs, scored

Model

v0.1

p_adverse_action_12m · deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

95.4%

of actual next-12m terminations on holdout

Base rate

0.6%

observed 12m termination rate, training panels

Ranked by termination probability

1,901–1,950

#	Facility	p(exit 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
1901	EVERETT TRANSITIONAL CARE SERVICES	1.3%	87.6	A	WA	EVERETT	62	BETHANY OF THE NORTHWEST
1902	EAGLE LAKE NURSING AND REHAB CARE CENTER	1.3%	87.6	D	FL	SAINT PETERSBURG	59	—
1903	RIVERSIDE LIFELONG HEALTH & REHABILITATION PATRI	1.3%	87.6	A	VA	WILLIAMSBURG	60	RIVERSIDE HEALTHCARE ASSOCIATION INC
1904	LECOM AT ELMWOOD GARDENS, LLC	1.3%	87.6	A	PA	ERIE	51	—
1905	FRANCIS MARION MANOR HEALTH & REHABILITATION	1.3%	87.6	A	VA	MARION	109	BALLAD HEALTH
1906	VALLEY VIEW REHABILITATION AND HEALTHCARE CTR	1.3%	87.5	C	NJ	NEWTON	31	AM 145 HOLDINGS LLC
1907	Greensboro Nursing Home	1.3%	87.5	A	VT	Greensboro	30	—
1908	GLEN AT WILLOW VALLEY	1.3%	87.5	A	PA	LANCASTER	262	WILLOW VALLEY COMMUNITIES
1909	PARK VILLA	1.3%	87.5	A	KS	CLYDE	34	—
1910	THE GLEBE	1.3%	87.5	A	VA	DALEVILLE	32	VIRGINIA BAPTIST HOMES INC
1911	PEACE CARE ST JOSEPH'S	1.3%	87.5	C	NJ	JERSEY CITY	139	PEACE CARE INC
1912	Salemtowne	1.3%	87.5	A	NC	Winston-Salem	100	—
1913	COFFMAN NURSING HOME	1.3%	87.5	B	MD	HAGERSTOWN	59	FAHRNEY KEEDY MEMORIAL HOME INC
1914	Corning Specialty Care	1.3%	87.5	B	IA	Corning	40	CARE INITIATIVES
1915	WESTMINSTER AT LAKE RIDGE	1.3%	87.5	B	VA	LAKE RIDGE	60	WESTMINSTER INGLESIDE KING FARM RETIREMENT COMMUNITIES INC
1916	REMINGTON TRANSITIONAL CARE OF RICHARDSON	1.3%	87.5	B	TX	RICHARDSON	0	—
1917	Sheffield Care Center	1.3%	87.5	A	IA	Sheffield	45	—
1918	CUMBERLAND POINTE HEALTH CAMPUS	1.3%	87.5	D	IN	WEST LAFAYETTE	71	WITHAM MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
1919	FRIENDSHIP VILLAGE SUNSET HILLS	1.3%	87.5	A	MO	SAINT LOUIS	144	FV SERVICES INC
1920	Park Ridge Nursing Home	1.3%	87.5	A	NY	Rochester	120	—
1921	GUNDERSEN ST ELIZABETH'S CARE CENTER	1.3%	87.5	A	MN	WABASHA	100	BELLIN GUNDERSEN HEALTH SYSTEM INC
1922	LOGAN HEALTH - CONRAD	1.3%	87.5	B	MT	CONRAD	59	MTWY HEALTH
1923	Elevate Care Des Plaines	1.3%	87.5	F	IL	DES PLAINES	275	—
1924	Franke Health Care Center	1.3%	87.5	A	SC	Mount Pleasant	44	LUTHERAN HOMES OF SC INC
1925	LARSEN HEALTH CENTER	1.3%	87.5	B	FL	FORT MYERS	180	THE CHRISTIAN AND MISSIONARY ALLIANCE
1926	SUNNY VIEW MANOR	1.3%	87.5	A	CA	CUPERTINO	48	FRONT PORCH COMMUNITIES AND SERVICES
1927	Lakeside Generations Health Care Center	1.3%	87.5	A	MN	DASSEL	54	CASSIA
1928	PELICAN VALLEY HEALTH CENTER	1.3%	87.5	A	MN	PELICAN RAPIDS	28	KNUTE NELSON
1929	TRINITY TERRACE	1.3%	87.5	A	TX	FORT WORTH	0	PACIFIC RETIREMENT SERVICES INC
1930	MCLEAN HEALTH CENTER	1.3%	87.4	B	CT	SIMSBURY	72	—
1931	COURTYARD GARDENS NURSING AND REHAB CTR	1.3%	87.4	A	PA	MIDDLETOWN	102	—
1932	GOLDEN AGE NURSING HOME	1.3%	87.4	A	MS	GREENWOOD	95	—
1933	MT HEALTHY CHRISTIAN HOME	1.3%	87.4	A	OH	CINCINNATI	75	THE CHRISTIAN BENEVOLENT ASSOCIATION OF GREATER CINCINNATI INC
1934	MASONIC HOME	1.3%	87.4	A	CA	UNION CITY	125	MORRISON MANAGEMENT SPECIALISTS INC
1935	Avina on 32nd	1.3%	87.4	D	WI	KENOSHA	110	—
1936	Lamoni Specialty Care	1.3%	87.4	B	IA	Lamoni	43	CARE INITIATIVES
1937	CURA OF WILLMAR	1.2%	87.4	A	MN	WILLMAR	78	—
1938	CHRISTIAN EXTENDED CARE & REHABILITATION	1.2%	87.4	B	MO	SAINT LOUIS	60	BETHESDA HEALTH GROUP INC
1939	STELLA MARIS, INC.	1.2%	87.4	B	MD	TIMONIUM	390	MERCY HEALTH SERVICES INC
1940	BRONXCARE SPECIAL CARE CENTER	1.2%	87.4	B	NY	BRONX	240	—
1941	CENTRE CARE REHABILITATION AND WELLNESS SERVICES	1.2%	87.4	C	PA	BELLEFONTE	240	—
1942	Jamieson Nursing Home	1.2%	87.4	C	MI	Harrisville	39	—
1943	SNU ARMSTRONG CO MEMORIAL HOSP	1.2%	87.3	B	PA	KITTANNING	17	PENNSYLVANIA MOUNTAINS CARE NETWORK
1944	GREENCROFT HEALTHCARE	1.2%	87.3	B	IN	GOSHEN	214	WOODLAWN HOSPITAL
1945	DUPAGE CARE CENTER	1.2%	87.3	B	IL	WHEATON	366	SYMBRIA REHAB INC
1946	Porter Hills Health Center	1.2%	87.3	A	MI	Grand Rapids	39	UMRCPH INC
1947	MEMPHIS JEWISH HOME	1.2%	87.3	A	TN	CORDOVA	160	—
1948	St. Ann's Community	1.2%	87.3	A	NY	Webster	72	—
1949	Lake Moultrie Nursing Home	1.2%	87.3	B	SC	Saint Stephen	88	CLARENDON MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
1950	NORTH ADAMS COMMONS NURSING & REHABILITATION CENTE	1.2%	87.3	A	MA	NORTH ADAMS	119	INTEGRITUS HEALTHCARE INC

Showing 1,901–1,950 of 15,359 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.