Reads as: riskier than 33.5% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
1
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
15 chains
AEGIS THERAPIES INC
32 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
FL median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
5.27
3.42
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.96
0.45
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
5.30
3.31
3.11
—
Weekday total
5.25
3.48
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
138.6
5.27
0.96
0.47
3.84
5.30
2.0%
2025Q3
92
132.9
6.12
1.23
0.60
4.29
6.01
7.3%
2025Q2
91
127.7
6.17
1.20
0.66
4.32
6.04
11.1%
2025Q1
90
140.4
5.51
0.92
0.77
3.82
5.42
15.3%
2024Q4
92
143.9
5.21
0.85
0.74
3.62
5.10
8.6%
2024Q3
92
139.6
5.17
0.80
0.72
3.65
5.09
7.1%
2024Q2
91
136.8
5.01
0.81
0.73
3.48
4.95
9.6%
2024Q1
91
143.6
4.84
0.85
0.68
3.31
4.71
8.6%
2023Q4
92
145.0
4.72
0.79
0.67
3.26
4.55
3.3%
2023Q3
92
135.8
5.03
0.81
0.81
3.42
4.91
3.3%
2023Q2
91
135.7
5.13
0.81
0.87
3.45
4.88
5.1%
2023Q1
90
157.3
4.97
0.69
0.95
3.34
4.70
18.9%
2022Q4
92
137.9
5.12
0.83
0.89
3.40
4.94
12.3%
2022Q3
92
134.6
4.89
0.72
0.86
3.31
4.73
9.2%
2022Q2
91
137.2
4.31
0.71
0.58
3.02
4.25
1.9%
2022Q1
90
137.2
4.53
0.73
0.51
3.28
4.36
0.7%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
D
2025-06-22
2025-05-22
Health
F0825
Provide or get specialized rehabilitative services as required for a resident.
D
2025-06-22
2025-05-22
Health
F0842
Safeguard resident-identifiable information and/or maintain medical records on each resident that are in accordance with accepted professional standards.
D
2025-06-22
2025-01-16
Health · complaint
F0600
Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody.
G
2025-02-14
2023-03-16
Health
F0610
Respond appropriately to all alleged violations.
D
2023-04-16
2023-03-16
Health
F0680
Ensure the activities program is directed by a qualified professional.
E
2023-04-16
2023-03-16
Health
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
D
2023-04-16
2023-03-16
Health
F0687
Provide appropriate foot care.
D
2023-04-16
2023-03-16
Health
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
G
2023-04-16
2023-03-16
Health
F0700
Try different approaches before using a bed rail. If a bed rail is needed, the facility must (1) assess a resident for safety risk; (2) review these risks and benefits with the resident/representative; (3) get informed consent; and (4) Correctly install and maintain the bed rail.
E
2023-04-16
2023-03-16
Health
F0909
Regularly inspect all bed frames, mattresses, and bed rails (if any) for safety; and all bed rails and mattresses must attach safely to the bed frame.
E
2023-04-16
2021-07-01
Health
F0679
Provide activities to meet all resident's needs.
D
2021-09-24
2021-07-01
Health
F0688
Provide appropriate care for a resident to maintain and/or improve range of motion (ROM), limited ROM and/or mobility, unless a decline is for a medical reason.
D
2021-09-24
2021-07-01
Health
F0692
Provide enough food/fluids to maintain a resident's health.
D
2021-09-24
2021-07-01
Health
F0725
Provide enough nursing staff every day to meet the needs of every resident; and have a licensed nurse in charge on each shift.
D
2021-09-27
2021-07-01
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2021-09-27
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
46
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
THE CHRISTIAN AND MISSIONARY ALLIANCE
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
—
current
pecos_ownership
AEGIS THERAPIES, INC.
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2021-10-01
current
pecos_ownership
ANDERSON, WANDA
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2008-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
BALDES, KEN
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2001-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
BURDZY, JON
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2020-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
CANDELORE, MICHELE
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-10-01
current
pecos_ownership
CANDELORE, MICHELE
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-07-31
current
pecos_ownership
CASS, PAUL
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2002-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
CHRISTMAN, CHANLEY
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2011-05-01
current
pecos_ownership
DAVIDSON, JOHN
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
1995-11-01
current
pecos_ownership
DEWITT, CHARLES
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
1990-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
DUSS, DONNA
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
1994-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
DYS, JEREMY
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2020-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
FLANDERS, TOM
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2022-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
GLENN, JAMES
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
1991-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
HIBBARD, JAY
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2009-10-01
current
pecos_ownership
HUISMAN, HENRY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-03-31
current
pecos_ownership
OFARRELL, MARK
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
1994-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
POLARIS HEALTH LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-03-25
current
pecos_ownership
RAINEY, LEWIS
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2020-01-06
current
pecos_ownership
SCALES, MICHAEL
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2002-11-01
current
pecos_ownership
SCHAPPELL, MARTIN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2016-03-21
current
pecos_ownership
STAFFMD, LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-01-07
current
pecos_ownership
VASSAR, TASHA
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2017-06-04
current
pecos_ownership
WHITE, ARCHIE
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2008-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
ARCHIE WHITE
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2008-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CHANLEY CHRISTMAN
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2011-05-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CHARLES DEWITT
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
1990-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DONNA DUSS
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
1994-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
HENRY HUISMAN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-03-31
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JAMES GLENN
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
1991-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JAY HIBBARD
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2009-10-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JEREMY DYS
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2020-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOHN DAVIDSON
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
1995-11-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JON BURDZY
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2020-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
KEN BALDES
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2001-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
LEWIS RAINEY
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2020-01-06
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MARK OFARRELL
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
1994-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MARTIN SCHAPPELL
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2016-03-21
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MICHAEL SCALES
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2002-11-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MICHELE CANDELORE
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2024-10-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MICHELE CANDELORE
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-07-31
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PAUL CASS
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2002-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
TASHA VASSAR
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2017-06-04
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
TOM FLANDERS
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2022-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
WANDA ANDERSON
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2008-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
5
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2025-06-30
$244,574
—
—
—
—
1
—
2024-06-30
$229,037
—
—
—
—
1
—
2023-06-30
$304,688
—
—
—
—
1
—
2022-06-30
$185,891
—
—
—
—
1
—
2021-06-30
$134,856
—
—
—
—
1
—
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
35
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 12071
acs median gross
0
$1,630
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 12071
fmr
0
$1,629
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 12071
acs median gross
1
$1,475
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 12071
fmr
1
$1,638
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 12071
acs median gross
2
$1,617
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 12071
fmr
2
$1,961
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 12071
acs median gross
3
$1,874
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 12071
fmr
3
$2,560
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 12071
acs median gross
4
$2,133
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 12071
fmr
4
$2,836
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 12071
acs median gross
5
$2,648
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 12071
acs median gross
$1,712
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 12071
acs recent mover gross
$2,090
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 33908
acs median gross
0
$2,516
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 33908
acs median gross
1
$1,817
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 33908
acs median gross
2
$1,839
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 33908
acs median gross
3
$1,909
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 33908
acs median gross
4
$2,413
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 33908
acs median gross
$1,871
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 33908
acs recent mover gross
$2,020
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 33908
payment standard 110
0
$2,068
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 33908
payment standard 90
0
$1,692
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 33908
safmr
0
$1,880
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 33908
payment standard 110
1
$2,079
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 33908
payment standard 90
1
$1,701
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 33908
safmr
1
$1,890
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 33908
payment standard 110
2
$2,486
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 33908
payment standard 90
2
$2,034
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 33908
safmr
2
$2,260
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 33908
payment standard 110
3
$3,245
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 33908
payment standard 90
3
$2,655
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 33908
safmr
3
$2,950
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 33908
payment standard 110
4
$3,597
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 33908
payment standard 90
4
$2,943
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 33908
safmr
4
$3,270
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.