Ownership-change pipeline

Distress Radar

p(Medicare termination, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

15,359

active SNFs, scored

Model

v0.1

p_adverse_action_12m · deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

95.4%

of actual next-12m terminations on holdout

Base rate

0.6%

observed 12m termination rate, training panels

Ranked by termination probability

1,651–1,700

#	Facility	p(exit 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
1651	Vermont Veterans' Home	1.6%	89.2	A	VT	Bennington	177	—
1652	STILLHOUSE REHABILITATION AND HEALTHCARE CENTER	1.6%	89.2	C	TX	PARIS	0	FANNIN COUNTY HOSPITAL AUTHORITY
1653	BOLINGREEN HEALTH AND REHABILITATION	1.6%	89.2	C	GA	MACON	121	COMMUNITY HEALTH SYSTEMS INC
1654	NOTRE DAME HEALTH AND REHABILITATION CENTER	1.6%	89.2	A	CT	NORWALK	60	—
1655	STERLING VILLAGE	1.6%	89.2	B	KS	STERLING	45	GRACE TEAM LLC
1656	ELM CREST MANOR	1.6%	89.2	A	ND	NEW SALEM	62	—
1657	OWEN VALLEY REHABILITATION AND HEALTHCARE CENTER	1.6%	89.2	C	IN	SPENCER	113	PUTNAM COUNTY HOSPITAL
1658	SUITES AT SOMEREN GLEN CARE CENTER, THE	1.6%	89.2	A	CO	CENTENNIAL	109	CHRISTIAN LIVING NEIGHBORHOODS
1659	MAPLE FARM	1.6%	89.2	A	PA	AKRON	46	GARDEN SPOT COMMUNITIES
1660	WINDSORMEADE OF WILLIAMSBURG	1.6%	89.2	A	VA	WILLIAMSBURG	22	VIRGINIA UNITED METHODIST HOMES INC
1661	MORGANTOWN WOODS OF JOURNEY	1.6%	89.2	C	IN	MORGANTOWN	39	—
1662	PARKVIEW MANOR NURSING HOME	1.6%	89.2	A	MN	ELLSWORTH	37	—
1663	Allegan County Medical Care Facility	1.6%	89.2	A	MI	Allegan	39	—
1664	BOYCE MANOR NURSING HOME	1.6%	89.2	C	OK	HOLDENVILLE	155	TIFFANY SEAY EXEMPT TR
1665	HERITAGE SQUARE	1.6%	89.2	A	IL	DIXON	27	—
1666	WILLOWS OF RICHMOND	1.6%	89.2	B	IN	RICHMOND	87	HENRY COUNTY MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
1667	MESSIAH LIFEWAYS AT MESSIAH VILLAGE	1.5%	89.1	B	PA	MECHANICSBURG	118	—
1668	NAVIGATOR HOMES OF MARTHA'S VINEYARD	1.5%	89.1	A	MA	EDGARTOWN	106	ALLIANCE HEALTH MANAGEMENT SERVICES LLC
1669	AVIR AT JACKSBORO	1.5%	89.1	C	TX	JACKSBORO	0	—
1670	PEARL RIVER CO NURSING HOME	1.5%	89.1	A	MS	POPLARVILLE	110	FORREST COUNTY GENERAL HOSPITAL
1671	SHAWNEE COLONIAL ESTATES NURSING HOME	1.5%	89.1	D	OK	SHAWNEE	161	HEALTH SYSTEMS OF OKLAHOMA LLC
1672	BRADLEY HEALTH CARE & REHAB	1.5%	89.1	C	TN	CLEVELAND	213	—
1673	ST LUKE'S REHABILITATION AND NURSING CENTER	1.5%	89.1	A	PA	COALDALE	48	—
1674	Door County Memorial Hospital SNF	1.5%	89.1	A	WI	Sturgeon Bay	32	ST VINCENT HOSPITAL HOSPITAL SISTERS THIRD ORDER OF ST FRANCIS
1675	WINDFLOWER HEALTH CENTER	1.5%	89.1	C	TX	AMARILLO	0	LIFESPACE COMMUNITIES INC
1676	WATERFORD, THE	1.5%	89.1	B	FL	JUNO BEACH	60	LIFESPACE COMMUNITIES INC
1677	McMurray Hills Rehabilitation and Healthcare Cente	1.5%	89.0	B	PA	MCMURRAY	115	AHF MANAGEMENT CORP
1678	Carl T Curtis Health Education Center Nursing Home	1.5%	89.0	A	NE	Macy	25	—
1679	HILLCREST HOME	1.5%	89.0	A	AR	HARRISON	103	—
1680	LUTHERAN HOME FOR THE AGED	1.5%	89.0	D	IL	ARLINGTON HTS	354	SELECT REHABILITATION LLC
1681	PARK HIGHLANDS NURSING & REHABILITATION CENTER	1.5%	89.0	C	TX	ATHENS	0	FANNIN COUNTY HOSPITAL AUTHORITY
1682	MINNIE HAMILTON HEALTH CARE	1.5%	89.0	A	WV	GRANTSVILLE	24	—
1683	BLUEBONNET REHAB AT ENNIS	1.5%	89.0	B	TX	ENNIS	0	CORYELL COUNTY MEMORIAL HOSPITAL AUTHORITY
1684	Fairview Care Center	1.5%	89.0	B	MN	DODGE CENTER	46	—
1685	LAUREL VIEW VILLAGE	1.5%	89.0	A	PA	DAVIDSVILLE	60	BENCHMARK THERAPIES INC
1686	Aitkin Health Services	1.5%	89.0	B	MN	AITKIN	42	ST FRANCIS HEALTH SERVICES OF MORRIS INC
1687	MORAVIAN MANOR	1.5%	89.0	A	PA	LITITZ	119	UNITAS COMMUNITIES
1688	TRUMAN SENIOR LIVING	1.5%	89.0	A	MN	TRUMAN	30	—
1689	MOUNTRAIL BETHEL HOME	1.5%	89.0	A	ND	STANLEY	36	—
1690	BEECHWOOD HOME FOR INCURABLES	1.5%	89.0	A	OH	CINCINNATI	80	—
1691	WEBSTER HEALTH SERVICES NURSING FACILTY	1.5%	89.0	A	MS	EUPORA	36	—
1692	Cass County Medical Care Facility	1.5%	89.0	C	MI	Cassopolis	80	—
1693	Rosecrest Rehabilitation and Healthcare Center	1.5%	89.0	A	SC	Inman	75	LUTHERAN HOMES OF SC INC
1694	Cherokee Specialty Care	1.5%	88.9	B	IA	Cherokee	62	CARE INITIATIVES
1695	MITCHELL COUNTY HOSPITAL HEALTH SYSTEMS LTCU	1.5%	88.9	A	KS	BELOIT	36	MITCHELL COUNTY HOSPITAL HEALTH SYSTEMS
1696	AMISTAD NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER	1.5%	88.9	C	TX	UVALDE	0	WEST WHARTON COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT
1697	SENECA HILL MANOR INC	1.5%	88.9	A	NY	OSWEGO	120	OSWEGO HEALTH INC
1698	MERCY HOSPITAL SKILLED NURSING FACILITY	1.5%	88.9	A	NY	LACKAWANNA	84	—
1699	Maple Valley Nursing Home	1.5%	88.9	C	MI	Maple Valley	25	—
1700	CHAPEL HILL COMMUNITY	1.5%	88.9	A	OH	CANAL FULTON	80	UNITED CHURCH HOMES INC

Showing 1,651–1,700 of 15,359 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.