Reads as: riskier than 28.8% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
1
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
13 chains
FRIENDS SERVICES FOR THE AGING
18 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
PA median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
3.87
3.38
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.76
0.45
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
3.92
3.27
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.85
3.43
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
43.4
3.87
0.76
0.92
2.19
3.92
0.0%
2025Q3
92
42.4
3.96
0.73
0.99
2.24
3.85
0.0%
2025Q2
91
42.2
4.30
0.73
1.08
2.49
4.20
0.0%
2025Q1
90
42.9
3.85
0.75
0.98
2.12
3.74
0.0%
2024Q4
92
41.3
3.62
0.80
1.02
1.79
3.71
2.1%
2024Q3
92
39.7
4.21
0.81
1.10
2.31
4.20
8.2%
2024Q2
91
41.4
4.27
0.68
1.08
2.51
4.23
5.0%
2024Q1
91
43.8
3.99
0.62
1.06
2.31
3.95
2.8%
2023Q4
92
41.7
4.18
0.68
1.03
2.47
4.20
0.0%
2023Q3
92
40.8
3.87
0.69
0.99
2.20
3.45
0.0%
2023Q2
91
41.5
4.03
0.71
1.05
2.27
3.87
2.9%
2023Q1
90
43.0
3.93
0.62
1.02
2.29
4.04
1.1%
2022Q4
92
43.9
3.87
0.64
0.95
2.28
4.06
3.2%
2022Q3
92
43.6
3.38
0.65
0.92
1.81
3.46
4.1%
2022Q2
91
42.7
3.24
0.61
0.99
1.65
3.30
0.0%
2022Q1
90
41.9
3.25
0.60
1.03
1.63
3.39
2.5%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0
No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
5
D × 4E × 1
deficiencies by survey year
Survey
Type
Tag
Deficiency
Scope
Corrected
2025-05-29
Health
F0552
Ensure that residents are fully informed and understand their health status, care and treatments.
E
2025-07-11
2025-05-29
Health
F0628
Provide the required documentation or notification related to the resident's needs, appeal rights, or bed-hold policies.
D
2025-07-11
2025-05-29
Health
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
D
2025-07-11
2025-05-29
Health
F0693
Ensure that feeding tubes are not used unless there is a medical reason and the resident agrees; and provide appropriate care for a resident with a feeding tube.
D
2025-07-11
2023-06-02
Health
F0580
Immediately tell the resident, the resident's doctor, and a family member of situations (injury/decline/room, etc.) that affect the resident.
D
2023-07-21
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
29
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
GARDEN SPOT COMMUNITIES
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2016-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
ALDRICH, DONALD
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2023-03-01
current
pecos_ownership
BENDER, TIM
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2023-03-01
current
pecos_ownership
EDWARDS, CARL
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2023-03-01
current
pecos_ownership
FRIENDS SERVICES FOR THE AGING
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-09-12
current
pecos_ownership
FRIENDS SERVICES FOR THE AGING
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-02-01
current
pecos_ownership
GIVENS, ELIZABETH
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2025-06-25
current
pecos_ownership
GOSS, JEFF
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2024-07-26
current
pecos_ownership
HOOVER, JOYCE
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2023-03-01
current
pecos_ownership
LINDSEY, STEPHEN
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2009-08-01
current
pecos_ownership
LINDSEY, STEPHEN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-02-01
current
pecos_ownership
MUSSER, KAREN
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2023-03-01
current
pecos_ownership
STOLTZFUS, ALPHAUS
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2023-03-01
current
pecos_ownership
VEGA, DAVID
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2023-03-01
current
pecos_ownership
WEBER, NATHANIEL
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-02-01
current
pecos_ownership
WEBER, NATHANIEL
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2023-03-01
current
pecos_ownership
NATHANIEL WEBER
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
100%
2024-02-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
NATHANIEL WEBER
CORPORATE OFFICER
100%
2023-03-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
STEPHEN LINDSEY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
100%
2024-02-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
STEPHEN LINDSEY
CORPORATE OFFICER
100%
2009-08-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ALPHAUS STOLTZFUS
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
10%
2023-03-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CARL EDWARDS
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
10%
2023-03-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DAVID VEGA
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
10%
2023-03-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DONALD ALDRICH
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
10%
2023-03-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ELIZABETH GIVENS
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
10%
2025-06-25
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JEFF GOSS
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
10%
2024-07-26
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOYCE HOOVER
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
10%
2023-03-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
KAREN MUSSER
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
10%
2023-03-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
TIM BENDER
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
10%
2023-03-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
5
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2025-06-30
$94,849
—
—
—
—
1
—
2024-06-30
$89,505
—
—
—
—
1
—
2023-06-30
$85,320
—
—
—
—
1
—
2022-06-30
$75,563
—
—
—
—
1
—
2021-06-30
$53,592
—
—
—
—
1
—
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
33
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 42071
acs median gross
0
$995
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 42071
fmr
0
$1,102
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 42071
acs median gross
1
$1,124
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 42071
fmr
1
$1,220
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 42071
acs median gross
2
$1,381
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 42071
fmr
2
$1,526
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 42071
acs median gross
3
$1,544
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 42071
fmr
3
$1,980
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 42071
acs median gross
4
$1,540
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 42071
fmr
4
$2,020
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 42071
acs median gross
5
$1,503
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 42071
acs median gross
$1,357
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 42071
acs recent mover gross
$1,490
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 17501
acs median gross
1
$950
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 17501
acs median gross
2
$1,187
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 17501
acs median gross
3
$1,350
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 17501
acs median gross
$1,174
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 17501
acs recent mover gross
$1,281
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 17501
payment standard 110
0
$1,122
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 17501
payment standard 90
0
$918
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 17501
safmr
0
$1,020
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 17501
payment standard 110
1
$1,243
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 17501
payment standard 90
1
$1,017
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 17501
safmr
1
$1,130
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 17501
payment standard 110
2
$1,551
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 17501
payment standard 90
2
$1,269
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 17501
safmr
2
$1,410
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 17501
payment standard 110
3
$2,013
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 17501
payment standard 90
3
$1,647
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 17501
safmr
3
$1,830
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 17501
payment standard 110
4
$2,057
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 17501
payment standard 90
4
$1,683
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 17501
safmr
4
$1,870
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.