Composite
12.3 / 100 percentile
| Component | Percentile | Raw | Weight | Weight share | Contribution | Counts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| financial risk | 58.4 | 51.2 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 13.48 | in index |
| staffing risk | 41.7 | 41.8 | 0.25 | 0.1923 | 8.02 | in index |
| chow risk | 46.2 | 44.4 | 0.15 | 0.1154 | 5.33 | in index |
| billing conduct | 11.3 | 10.0 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 2.61 | in index |
| regulatory risk | 7.9 | 5.0 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 1.82 | in index |
| Kind | Finding | Signal | Subject | First seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| connection | Owner fleet enforcement cluster | 40% fined | GREEN CATHERINE | 5 facilities |
| connection | Owner fleet enforcement cluster | 40% fined | SHEIDLER SUSAN | 5 facilities |
| Score type | Score | Grade | Model | Status | Registry model notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| billing conduct | 10.0 | A | v0.1-pacpuf-snf | default · in composite | R22. PAC PUF SNF 2023. PDPM coding intensity vs acuity, stay length, charge markup. |
| chow risk | 25.0 | B | v0.1-pos | default · in composite | Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure. |
| chow risk | 63.8 | C | v0.6 | default · in composite | |
| financial risk | 51.2 | C | v0.5 | default · in composite | R18. |
| p adverse action 12m | 1.5 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite. |
| p chow 12m | 0.3 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite. |
| regulatory risk | 5.0 | A | v0.3 | default · in composite | Deficiency-based, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.5-pos. |
| staffing risk | 41.8 | B | v0.3 | default · in composite | Cost-report staffing, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.4-pos, which covers ICF/IID from POS. |
| financial risk | 80.8 | F | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 60.8 | C | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 53.3 | C | v0.3 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 53.9 | C | v0.4 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 4.9 | A | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 4.9 | A | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 41.8 | B | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 41.8 | B | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| For-profit ownership | 0.00 | -1.24 | |
| Occupancy | 0.96 | -0.76 | |
| Never sold on record | 1.00 | +0.62 | |
| Current owner tenure (years) | 25.00 | +0.57 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.42 | |
| Ownership changes, last 5 years | 0.00 | +0.20 | |
| Deficiencies, last 12 months | 0.00 | -0.17 | |
| Chain size (log) | 1.10 | -0.17 |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| For-profit ownership | 0.00 | +1.62 | |
| Deficiencies, last 12 months | 0.00 | +1.43 | |
| Occupancy | 0.96 | -0.89 | |
| Chain size (log) | 1.10 | +0.56 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.39 | |
| Fine amount, 12m (log) | 0.00 | +0.18 | |
| Never sold on record | 1.00 | +0.12 | |
| Current owner tenure (years) | 25.00 | +0.11 |
| 2025Q4 HPRD | This facility | OH median | National median | National p25–p75 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total nurse | 3.42 | 3.24 | 3.28 | 2.90–3.77 |
| RN | 0.29 | 0.38 | 0.39 | 0.25–0.58 |
| Weekend total | 3.25 | 3.11 | 3.11 | — |
| Weekday total | 3.49 | 3.29 | 3.35 | — |
| Quarter | Days | Avg census | Total HPRD | RN | LPN | CNA | Weekend | Contract % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025Q4 | 92 | 76.9 | 3.42 | 0.29 | 0.99 | 2.14 | 3.25 | 9.7% |
| 2025Q3 | 92 | 77.3 | 3.29 | 0.25 | 0.95 | 2.09 | 3.09 | 12.5% |
| 2025Q2 | 91 | 73.9 | 3.36 | 0.28 | 0.91 | 2.17 | 3.22 | 16.6% |
| 2025Q1 | 90 | 69.8 | 3.31 | 0.23 | 0.84 | 2.23 | 3.23 | 16.3% |
| 2024Q4 | 92 | 67.2 | 3.46 | 0.32 | 0.90 | 2.24 | 3.29 | 19.7% |
| 2024Q3 | 92 | 69.1 | 3.33 | 0.33 | 0.84 | 2.17 | 3.31 | 18.1% |
| 2024Q2 | 91 | 70.1 | 3.33 | 0.26 | 0.97 | 2.10 | 3.21 | 18.0% |
| 2024Q1 | 91 | 72.6 | 3.34 | 0.26 | 1.00 | 2.07 | 3.23 | 17.9% |
| 2023Q4 | 92 | 72.8 | 3.40 | 0.26 | 1.09 | 2.05 | 3.27 | 24.4% |
| 2023Q3 | 92 | 71.0 | 3.40 | 0.31 | 1.10 | 1.99 | 3.22 | 18.9% |
| 2023Q2 | 91 | 70.2 | 3.28 | 0.31 | 1.02 | 1.95 | 3.09 | 11.9% |
| 2023Q1 | 90 | 69.1 | 3.04 | 0.28 | 0.88 | 1.88 | 2.96 | 11.8% |
| 2022Q4 | 92 | 70.5 | 3.03 | 0.32 | 0.89 | 1.82 | 2.87 | 14.7% |
| 2022Q3 | 92 | 66.5 | 3.10 | 0.44 | 0.79 | 1.88 | 2.83 | 8.6% |
| 2022Q2 | 91 | 63.2 | 3.29 | 0.47 | 0.87 | 1.95 | 3.06 | 4.4% |
| 2022Q1 | 90 | 61.6 | 3.02 | 0.39 | 0.86 | 1.77 | 2.75 | 6.5% |
| Survey | Type | Tag | Deficiency | Scope | Corrected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-24 | Health · complaint | F0684 | Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals. | D | 2025-05-12 |
| 2025-04-24 | Health | F0698 | Provide safe, appropriate dialysis care/services for a resident who requires such services. | D | 2025-05-12 |
| 2025-04-24 | Health | F0758 | Implement gradual dose reductions(GDR) and non-pharmacological interventions, unless contraindicated, prior to initiating or instead of continuing psychotropic medication; and PRN orders for psychotropic medications are only used when the medication is necessary and PRN use is limited. | D | 2025-05-12 |
| 2025-04-24 | Health | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | D | 2025-05-12 |
| 2024-05-21 | Health · complaint | F0602 | Protect each resident from the wrongful use of the resident's belongings or money. | D | 2024-04-01 |
| 2023-06-06 | Health · complaint | F0550 | Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights. | E | 2023-06-26 |
| 2023-06-06 | Health · complaint | F0801 | Employ sufficient staff with the appropriate competencies and skills sets to carry out the functions of the food and nutrition service, including a qualified dietician. | D | 2023-06-26 |
| 2023-06-06 | Health · complaint | F0804 | Ensure food and drink is palatable, attractive, and at a safe and appetizing temperature. | F | 2023-06-26 |
| 2023-06-06 | Health · complaint | F0810 | Provide special eating equipment and utensils for residents who need them and appropriate assistance. | D | 2023-06-26 |
| 2023-06-06 | Health · complaint | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | F | 2023-06-26 |
| 2022-11-07 | Health | F0550 | Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights. | D | 2022-11-22 |
| 2022-11-07 | Health | F0558 | Reasonably accommodate the needs and preferences of each resident. | D | 2022-11-22 |
| 2022-11-07 | Health | F0583 | Keep residents' personal and medical records private and confidential. | D | 2022-11-22 |
| 2022-11-07 | Health | F0645 | PASARR screening for Mental disorders or Intellectual Disabilities | D | 2022-11-22 |
| 2022-11-07 | Health | F0677 | Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable. | D | 2022-11-22 |
| 2022-11-07 | Health | F0679 | Provide activities to meet all resident's needs. | E | 2022-11-22 |
| 2022-11-07 | Health | F0690 | Provide appropriate care for residents who are continent or incontinent of bowel/bladder, appropriate catheter care, and appropriate care to prevent urinary tract infections. | D | 2022-11-22 |
| 2022-11-07 | Health | F0692 | Provide enough food/fluids to maintain a resident's health. | D | 2022-11-22 |
| 2022-11-07 | Health | F0725 | Provide enough nursing staff every day to meet the needs of every resident; and have a licensed nurse in charge on each shift. | E | 2022-11-22 |
| 2022-11-07 | Health | F0791 | Provide or obtain dental services for each resident. | D | 2022-11-22 |
| 2022-11-07 | Health | F0803 | Ensure menus must meet the nutritional needs of residents, be prepared in advance, be followed, be updated, be reviewed by dietician, and meet the needs of the resident. | E | 2022-11-22 |
| 2022-11-07 | Health | F0806 | Ensure each resident receives and the facility provides food that accommodates resident allergies, intolerances, and preferences, as well as appealing options. | D | 2022-11-22 |
| 2022-11-07 | Health | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | F | 2022-11-22 |
| 2019-12-12 | Health | F0561 | Honor the resident's right to and the facility must promote and facilitate resident self-determination through support of resident choice. | D | 2020-01-13 |
| 2019-12-12 | Health | F0578 | Honor the resident's right to request, refuse, and/or discontinue treatment, to participate in or refuse to participate in experimental research, and to formulate an advance directive. | D | 2020-01-13 |
| 2019-12-12 | Health | F0580 | Immediately tell the resident, the resident's doctor, and a family member of situations (injury/decline/room, etc.) that affect the resident. | D | 2020-01-13 |
| 2019-12-12 | Health | F0582 | Give residents notice of Medicaid/Medicare coverage and potential liability for services not covered. | D | 2020-01-13 |
| 2019-12-12 | Health | F0607 | Develop and implement policies and procedures to prevent abuse, neglect, and theft. | D | 2020-01-13 |
| 2019-12-12 | Health | F0609 | Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities. | D | 2020-01-13 |
| 2019-12-12 | Health | F0641 | Ensure each resident receives an accurate assessment. | D | 2020-01-13 |
| 2019-12-12 | Health | F0684 | Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals. | D | 2020-01-13 |
| 2019-12-12 | Health | F0692 | Provide enough food/fluids to maintain a resident's health. | D | 2020-01-13 |
| 2019-12-12 | Health | F0758 | Implement gradual dose reductions(GDR) and non-pharmacological interventions, unless contraindicated, prior to initiating or instead of continuing psychotropic medication; and PRN orders for psychotropic medications are only used when the medication is necessary and PRN use is limited. | D | 2020-01-13 |
| 2019-12-12 | Health | F0761 | Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs. | F | 2020-01-13 |
| 2019-12-12 | Health | F0825 | Provide or get specialized rehabilitative services as required for a resident. | D | 2020-01-13 |
| Owner | Role | Pct | From | Status | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BROWNFIELD, THOMAS | CORPORATE DIRECTOR | — | 2014-12-31 | current | pecos_ownership |
| DANIEL, KENNETH | CORPORATE OFFICER | — | 2011-06-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| DURBIN, DEBRA | W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE | — | 2013-04-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| GREEN, CATHERINE | CORPORATE DIRECTOR | — | 2014-12-31 | current | pecos_ownership |
| HENRY, JAMES | CORPORATE DIRECTOR | — | 2014-12-31 | current | pecos_ownership |
| KUTSCHBACH, ROBERT | CORPORATE DIRECTOR | — | 2014-12-31 | current | pecos_ownership |
| RENNER, JOHN | CORPORATE OFFICER | — | 2014-01-27 | current | pecos_ownership |
| SHEIDLER, SUSAN | CORPORATE DIRECTOR | — | 2014-12-31 | current | pecos_ownership |
| UNITED CHURCH HOMES, INC. | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | — | current | pecos_ownership |
| CATHERINE GREEN | CORPORATE DIRECTOR | — | 2014-12-31 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| DEBRA DURBIN | W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE | — | 2013-04-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| JAMES HENRY | CORPORATE DIRECTOR | — | 2014-12-31 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| JOHN RENNER | CORPORATE OFFICER | — | 2014-01-27 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| KENNETH DANIEL | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2011-06-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| ROBERT KUTSCHBACH | CORPORATE DIRECTOR | — | 2014-12-31 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| SUSAN SHEIDLER | CORPORATE DIRECTOR | — | 2014-12-31 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| THOMAS BROWNFIELD | CORPORATE DIRECTOR | — | 2014-12-31 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| Close | Facility | Price | $/bed | Cap rate | Beds | Buyer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-31 | SAPPHIRE REHABILITATION AND CARE CENTER | — | — | — | 113 | SAPPHIRE OPCO LLC |
| 2024-12-31 | MAJESTIC CARE OF POINT PLACE | — | — | — | 82 | POINT PLACE OH HEALTH & REHAB OPCO LLC |
| 2024-12-31 | MAJESTIC CARE OF NEW LEXINGTON | — | — | — | 82 | NEW LEXINGTON OH HEALTH & REHAB OPCO LLC |
| 2024-12-31 | Atrium Nursing and Rehabilitation | — | — | — | 99 | ATRIUM OPCO LLC |
| 2024-12-31 | Inniswood Health and Rehabilitation | — | — | — | 99 | FHS INNISWOOD, INC. |
| 2024-12-31 | COMMUNITY SKILLED HEALTHCARE | — | — | — | 110 | CS OPCO LLC |
| 2024-12-31 | MAJESTIC CARE OF PERRYSBURG | — | — | — | 75 | PERRYSBURG OH HEALTH & REHAB OPCO LLC |
| 2024-12-31 | GRAFTON OAKS NURSING CENTER | — | — | — | 99 | GO OPCO LLC |
| 2024-12-31 | MAJESTIC CARE OF KENT | — | — | — | 74 | KENT OH HEALTH & REHAB OPCO LLC |
| 2024-12-30 | Chardon Woods | — | — | — | 161 | CHARDON WOODS OF JOURNEY LLC |
| 2024-12-16 | The Pavilion at Canal Fulton for Nursing and Rehab | — | — | — | 60 | PAVILION AT CANAL FULTON LLC |
| 2024-12-02 | BENNINGTON GLEN NURSING & REHABILITATION CENTER | — | — | — | 79 | FHS BENNINGTON INC |
| Geo | Kind | BR | Amount | As of | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| county 39151 | acs median gross | 0 | $630 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 39151 | fmr | 0 | $749 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 39151 | acs median gross | 1 | $703 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 39151 | fmr | 1 | $846 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 39151 | acs median gross | 2 | $918 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 39151 | fmr | 2 | $1,086 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 39151 | acs median gross | 3 | $1,059 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 39151 | fmr | 3 | $1,371 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 39151 | acs median gross | 4 | $1,121 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 39151 | fmr | 4 | $1,451 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 39151 | acs median gross | 5 | $1,085 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 39151 | acs median gross | $909 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| county 39151 | acs recent mover gross | $985 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 44614 | acs median gross | 1 | $843 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 44614 | acs median gross | 2 | $800 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 44614 | acs median gross | 3 | $1,471 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 44614 | acs median gross | $912 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zip 44614 | payment standard 110 | 0 | $891 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 44614 | payment standard 90 | 0 | $729 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 44614 | safmr | 0 | $810 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 44614 | payment standard 110 | 1 | $1,001 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 44614 | payment standard 90 | 1 | $819 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 44614 | safmr | 1 | $910 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 44614 | payment standard 110 | 2 | $1,287 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 44614 | payment standard 90 | 2 | $1,053 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 44614 | safmr | 2 | $1,170 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 44614 | payment standard 110 | 3 | $1,628 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 44614 | payment standard 90 | 3 | $1,332 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 44614 | safmr | 3 | $1,480 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 44614 | payment standard 110 | 4 | $1,716 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 44614 | payment standard 90 | 4 | $1,404 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 44614 | safmr | 4 | $1,560 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |