Ownership-change pipeline

Distress Radar

p(Medicare termination, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

15,359

active SNFs, scored

Model

v0.1

p_adverse_action_12m · deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

95.4%

of actual next-12m terminations on holdout

Base rate

0.6%

observed 12m termination rate, training panels

Ranked by termination probability

1,001–1,050

#	Facility	p(exit 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
1001	Valley Vista Care Center of Sandpoint	2.7%	93.5	B	ID	Sandpoint	73	VALLEY VISTA CARE CORPORATION
1002	Friendship Haven, Inc	2.7%	93.5	A	IA	Fort Dodge	155	—
1003	BROOKSIDE NURSING CENTER	2.7%	93.5	C	OK	MADILL	140	—
1004	RIDGECREST REGIONAL TRANSITIONAL CARE AND REHABILI	2.7%	93.5	B	CA	RIDGECREST	124	—
1005	W FRANK WELLS NURSING HOME	2.7%	93.5	B	FL	MACCLENNY	69	—
1006	MCKAY HEALTHCARE & REHAB CTR	2.7%	93.5	A	WA	SOAP LAKE	42	—
1007	APOSTOLIC CHRISTIAN HOME INC	2.7%	93.5	A	OH	RITTMAN	75	—
1008	THE HALLMARK	2.7%	93.4	A	TX	HOUSTON	0	BRAZOS PRESBYTERIAN HOMES, INC
1009	NORTHRIDGE HEALTH AND REHABILITATION	2.7%	93.4	C	GA	COMMERCE	167	COMMUNITY HEALTH SYSTEMS INC
1010	SAMARITAN SENIOR VILLAGE, INC	2.7%	93.4	A	NY	WATERTOWN	168	—
1011	SOUTHWELL HEALTH AND REHABILITATION	2.7%	93.4	A	GA	ADEL	95	—
1012	REBEKAH REHAB AND EXTENDED CARE CENTER	2.7%	93.4	A	NY	BRONX	213	—
1013	FAIRVIEW	2.7%	93.4	A	CT	GROTON	120	—
1014	LIMA CONVALESCENT HOME	2.7%	93.4	A	OH	LIMA	72	—
1015	Canterbury Woods	2.7%	93.4	A	NY	WILLIAMSVILLE	50	—
1016	Madison Healthcare Services	2.7%	93.4	B	MN	MADISON	51	—
1017	LAWRENCE HALL HEALTH & REHABILITATION	2.7%	93.4	A	AR	WALNUT RIDGE	110	—
1018	WYANDOT COUNTY SKILLED NURSING AND REHABILITATION	2.7%	93.4	C	OH	UPPER SANDUSKY	82	—
1019	Christian Care Communities and Services Mesquite	2.7%	93.4	F	TX	Mesquite	0	—
1020	CARING PLACE, THE	2.7%	93.4	B	PA	FRANKLIN	100	—
1021	WHITE MEMORIAL MEDICAL CTR DP	2.7%	93.4	B	CA	LOS ANGELES	27	ADVENTIST HEALTH SYSTEM WEST
1022	PRESBYTERIAN VILLAGE - ATHENS	2.7%	93.3	C	GA	ATHENS	40	—
1023	RIDGEWOOD MANOR HEALTH AND REHABILITATION	2.7%	93.3	B	GA	DALTON	102	HLTC INC
1024	Oakview Medical Care Facility	2.7%	93.3	A	MI	Ludington	96	—
1025	Mapleton Community Home	2.7%	93.3	A	MN	MAPLETON	59	—
1026	LAUGHLIN HEALTH CARE CENTER	2.7%	93.3	A	TN	GREENEVILLE	90	BALLAD HEALTH
1027	KENT COUNTY NURSING HOME	2.7%	93.3	C	TX	JAYTON	60	—
1028	ANNANDALE CARE CENTER INC	2.7%	93.3	A	MN	ANNANDALE	42	—
1029	Inland Christian Home	2.7%	93.3	A	CA	Ontario	59	—
1030	GUNDERSEN HARMONY CARE CENTER	2.7%	93.3	B	MN	HARMONY	42	BELLIN GUNDERSEN HEALTH SYSTEM INC
1031	THE NEIGHBORHOODS AT BROOKVIEW	2.7%	93.3	A	SD	BROOKINGS	79	—
1032	Willowbrooke Court Skilled Care Center at Mease Li	2.6%	93.3	C	FL	DUNEDIN	100	ACTS MANAGEMENT SERVICES INC
1033	THE GOLDEN RULE HOME	2.6%	93.3	D	OK	SHAWNEE	83	—
1034	The Lodge At Brookline	2.6%	93.3	F	OK	Oklahoma City	132	—
1035	MARYVILLE	2.6%	93.3	C	OR	BEAVERTON	165	—
1036	ST ELIZABETH FT THOMAS SNF	2.6%	93.3	B	KY	Fort Thomas	20	—
1037	Carolina Village Inc	2.6%	93.3	A	NC	Hendersonville	58	—
1038	Parkside Manor	2.6%	93.3	A	NE	Stuart	40	RURAL HEALTH DEVELOPMENT INC
1039	M.M. Ewing Continuing Care Center	2.6%	93.2	A	NY	Canandaigua	178	—
1040	LAKEVIEW HOUSE SKLD NRSG AND RESIDENTIAL CARE FAC	2.6%	93.2	A	MA	HAVERHILL	91	—
1041	The Village of East Harbor	2.6%	93.2	C	MI	Chesterfield Township	102	—
1042	THE ENCORE HEALTHCARE AND REHABILITATION CENTER	2.6%	93.2	A	LA	CROWLEY	73	—
1043	WOOD HAVEN HEALTH CARE SENIOR LIVING & REHAB	2.6%	93.2	A	OH	BOWLING GREEN	93	—
1044	Rocky Mountain Care - The Lodge	2.6%	93.2	D	UT	Heber City	92	BEAVER CITY CORPORATION
1045	GREEN PINE ACRES NURSING HOME	2.6%	93.2	A	MN	MENAHGA	65	—
1046	THE NEW JEWISH HOME, MANHATTAN	2.6%	93.2	F	NY	NEW YORK	514	JEWISH HOME LIFECARE
1047	Good Shepherd Lutheran Home	2.6%	93.2	A	MN	SAUK RAPIDS	146	—
1048	SYRACUSE HOME ASSOCIATION	2.6%	93.2	A	NY	BALDWINSVILLE	120	—
1049	VILLA DEL RIO GARDENS	2.6%	93.2	C	CA	BELL GARDENS	84	—
1050	SCHLEICHER COUNTY MEDICAL CENTER	2.6%	93.2	A	TX	ELDORADO	34	—

Showing 1,001–1,050 of 15,359 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.