Reads as: riskier than 33.7% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
1
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
4 chains
MEZA MICHAEL
8 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
ID median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
3.72
3.34
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.45
0.51
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
3.40
3.05
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.85
3.43
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
62.6
3.72
0.45
0.77
2.51
3.40
38.2%
2025Q3
92
58.1
3.75
0.48
0.86
2.41
3.40
47.3%
2025Q2
91
61.7
3.65
0.40
0.82
2.43
3.16
43.4%
2025Q1
90
61.0
3.73
0.37
0.83
2.53
3.41
43.4%
2024Q4
92
60.1
3.81
0.34
0.75
2.71
3.48
53.6%
2024Q3
92
60.5
3.95
0.38
0.70
2.86
3.65
53.0%
2024Q2
91
59.8
3.77
0.32
0.79
2.66
3.42
50.9%
2024Q1
91
59.0
3.68
0.44
0.77
2.48
3.46
46.9%
2023Q4
92
57.4
3.53
0.46
0.67
2.40
3.19
36.8%
2023Q3
92
59.1
3.85
0.44
0.65
2.77
3.60
47.4%
2023Q2
91
61.1
3.91
0.34
0.74
2.83
3.65
53.8%
2023Q1
90
60.2
4.00
0.29
0.79
2.91
3.78
56.5%
2022Q4
92
60.2
4.16
0.20
0.88
3.08
3.93
52.8%
2022Q3
92
56.2
4.16
0.18
1.07
2.92
3.97
42.5%
2022Q2
91
53.0
3.75
0.35
0.79
2.61
3.51
26.5%
2022Q1
90
49.9
3.81
0.51
0.72
2.59
3.48
12.1%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights.
D
2025-07-31
2025-06-27
Health · complaint
F0578
Honor the resident's right to request, refuse, and/or discontinue treatment, to participate in or refuse to participate in experimental research, and to formulate an advance directive.
D
2025-07-31
2025-06-27
Health · complaint
F0584
Honor the resident's right to a safe, clean, comfortable and homelike environment, including but not limited to receiving treatment and supports for daily living safely.
D
2025-07-31
2025-06-27
Health · complaint
F0627
Ensure the transfer/discharge meets the resident's needs/preferences and that the resident is prepared for a safe transfer/discharge.
D
2025-07-31
2025-06-27
Health · complaint
F0628
Provide the required documentation or notification related to the resident's needs, appeal rights, or bed-hold policies.
D
2025-07-31
2025-06-27
Health · complaint
F0641
Ensure each resident receives an accurate assessment.
E
2025-07-31
2025-06-27
Health · complaint
F0655
Create and put into place a plan for meeting the resident's most immediate needs within 48 hours of being admitted
D
2025-07-31
2025-06-27
Health · complaint
F0658
Ensure services provided by the nursing facility meet professional standards of quality.
D
2025-07-31
2025-06-27
Health · complaint
F0697
Provide safe, appropriate pain management for a resident who requires such services.
D
2025-07-31
2025-06-27
Health · complaint
F0757
Ensure each resident’s drug regimen must be free from unnecessary drugs.
D
2025-07-31
2025-06-27
Health · complaint
F0809
Ensure meals and snacks are served at times in accordance with resident’s needs, preferences, and requests. Suitable and nourishing alternative meals and snacks must be provided for residents who want to eat at non-traditional times or outside of scheduled meal times.
E
2025-07-31
2025-06-27
Health · complaint
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
E
2025-07-31
2025-06-27
Health · complaint
F0839
Employ staff that are licensed, certified, or registered in accordance with state laws.
D
2025-07-31
2025-06-27
Health · complaint
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
E
2025-07-31
2024-05-06
Health · complaint
F0550
Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights.
D
2024-06-21
2024-05-06
Health · complaint
F0554
Allow residents to self-administer drugs if determined clinically appropriate.
D
2024-06-21
2024-05-06
Health · complaint
F0580
Immediately tell the resident, the resident's doctor, and a family member of situations (injury/decline/room, etc.) that affect the resident.
D
2024-06-21
2024-05-06
Health · complaint
F0582
Give residents notice of Medicaid/Medicare coverage and potential liability for services not covered.
D
2024-06-21
2024-05-06
Health · complaint
F0600
Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody.
J
2024-06-21
2024-05-06
Health · complaint
F0609
Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities.
D
2024-06-21
2024-05-06
Health · complaint
F0610
Respond appropriately to all alleged violations.
D
2024-06-21
2024-05-06
Health · complaint
F0676
Ensure residents do not lose the ability to perform activities of daily living unless there is a medical reason.
D
2024-06-21
2024-05-06
Health · complaint
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
D
2024-06-21
2024-05-06
Health · complaint
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
G
2024-06-21
2024-05-06
Health · complaint
F0695
Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed.
D
2024-06-21
2024-05-06
Health · complaint
F0758
Implement gradual dose reductions(GDR) and non-pharmacological interventions, unless contraindicated, prior to initiating or instead of continuing psychotropic medication; and PRN orders for psychotropic medications are only used when the medication is necessary and PRN use is limited.
D
2024-06-21
2024-05-06
Health · complaint
F0868
Have the Quality Assessment and Assurance group have the required members and meet at least quarterly
E
2024-06-21
2024-05-06
Health · complaint
F0947
Ensure nurse aides have the skills they need to care for residents, and give nurse aides education in dementia care and abuse prevention.
E
2024-06-21
2019-01-31
Health
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
E
2019-03-07
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
25
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
COWIN, WILLIAM
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2016-08-03
current
pecos_ownership
GOODALL, TOM
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2021-06-30
current
pecos_ownership
HAYES, DONNA
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2021-06-30
current
pecos_ownership
LAMBERT, MICHAEL
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2022-06-01
current
pecos_ownership
LLOYD, CHARLES
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2019-06-17
current
pecos_ownership
MCGREAL, HEIDI
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
1998-10-26
current
pecos_ownership
MEZA, MICHAEL
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2018-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
POWELL, SABRINA
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2024-06-30
current
pecos_ownership
RYAN, DOUG
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2020-06-30
current
pecos_ownership
SPOONER, CLAUDIA
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2013-06-30
current
pecos_ownership
VALLEY VISTA CARE CORPORATION
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
1999-12-30
current
pecos_ownership
WILKS, KASEY
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
1999-03-15
current
pecos_ownership
WOODIN, CHERI
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2019-06-30
current
pecos_ownership
CHARLES LLOYD
CORPORATE OFFICER
100%
2019-06-17
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CHERI WOODIN
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2019-06-30
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CLAUDIA SPOONER
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2013-06-30
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DONNA HAYES
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2021-06-30
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DOUG RYAN
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2020-06-30
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
HEIDI MCGREAL
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
1998-10-26
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
KASEY WILKS
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
1999-03-15
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MICHAEL LAMBERT
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2022-06-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MICHAEL MEZA
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2018-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SABRINA POWELL
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2024-06-30
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
TOM GOODALL
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2021-06-30
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
WILLIAM COWIN
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2016-08-03
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
5
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-09-30
$571,579
—
—
—
—
1
—
2023-09-30
$576,115
—
—
—
—
1
—
2022-09-30
$460,206
—
—
—
—
1
—
2021-09-30
$338,737
—
—
—
—
1
—
2020-09-30
$466,404
—
—
—
—
1
—
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
36
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 16017
acs median gross
0
$772
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 16017
fmr
0
$952
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 16017
acs median gross
1
$740
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 16017
fmr
1
$958
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 16017
acs median gross
2
$1,070
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 16017
fmr
2
$1,257
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 16017
acs median gross
3
$1,494
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 16017
fmr
3
$1,748
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 16017
acs median gross
4
$1,164
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 16017
fmr
4
$1,903
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 16017
acs median gross
5
$2,568
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 16017
acs median gross
$1,122
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 16017
acs recent mover gross
$1,523
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 83864
acs median gross
0
$794
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 83864
acs median gross
1
$744
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 83864
acs median gross
2
$1,041
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 83864
acs median gross
3
$1,622
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 83864
acs median gross
4
$1,174
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 83864
acs median gross
5
$2,752
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 83864
acs median gross
$1,184
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 83864
acs recent mover gross
$1,477
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 83864
payment standard 110
0
$1,188
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 83864
payment standard 90
0
$972
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 83864
safmr
0
$1,080
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 83864
payment standard 110
1
$1,199
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 83864
payment standard 90
1
$981
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 83864
safmr
1
$1,090
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 83864
payment standard 110
2
$1,573
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 83864
payment standard 90
2
$1,287
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 83864
safmr
2
$1,430
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 83864
payment standard 110
3
$2,189
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 83864
payment standard 90
3
$1,791
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 83864
safmr
3
$1,990
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 83864
payment standard 110
4
$2,376
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 83864
payment standard 90
4
$1,944
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 83864
safmr
4
$2,160
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.