Composite
26.0 / 100 percentile
| Component | Percentile | Raw | Weight | Weight share | Contribution | Counts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| regulatory risk | 82.8 | 79.7 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 19.11 | in index |
| financial risk | 51.3 | 46.3 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 11.84 | in index |
| staffing risk | 24.8 | 24.9 | 0.25 | 0.1923 | 4.77 | in index |
| chow risk | 28.4 | 27.3 | 0.15 | 0.1154 | 3.28 | in index |
| billing conduct | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 0.00 | in index |
| Score type | Score | Grade | Model | Status | Registry model notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| billing conduct | 0.0 | A | v0.1-pacpuf-snf | default · in composite | R22. PAC PUF SNF 2023. PDPM coding intensity vs acuity, stay length, charge markup. |
| chow risk | 25.0 | B | v0.1-pos | default · in composite | Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure. |
| chow risk | 29.6 | B | v0.6 | default · in composite | |
| financial risk | 46.3 | C | v0.5 | default · in composite | R18. |
| p adverse action 12m | 2.7 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite. |
| p chow 12m | 0.3 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite. |
| regulatory risk | 79.7 | D | v0.3 | default · in composite | Deficiency-based, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.5-pos. |
| staffing risk | 24.9 | A | v0.3 | default · in composite | Cost-report staffing, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.4-pos, which covers ICF/IID from POS. |
| financial risk | 94.4 | F | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 74.4 | D | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 51.8 | C | v0.3 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 50.2 | C | v0.4 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 79.6 | D | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 79.6 | D | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 24.9 | A | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 24.9 | A | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| For-profit ownership | 0.00 | -1.24 | |
| Never sold on record | 1.00 | +0.62 | |
| Current owner tenure (years) | 25.00 | +0.57 | |
| Occupancy | 0.89 | -0.57 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.42 | |
| Chain size (log) | 0.00 | -0.40 | |
| Contract staffing share | 0.24 | +0.27 | |
| Ownership changes, last 5 years | 0.00 | +0.20 |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| For-profit ownership | 0.00 | +1.62 | |
| Deficiencies, last 12 months | 1.00 | +1.24 | |
| Chain size (log) | 0.00 | +1.20 | |
| Occupancy | 0.89 | -0.61 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.39 | |
| Staffing trend, last 4 quarters | -0.62 | -0.31 | |
| Total nurse staffing (HPRD) | 3.77 | -0.23 | |
| Fine amount, 12m (log) | 0.00 | +0.18 |
| 2025Q4 HPRD | This facility | WA median | National median | National p25–p75 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total nurse | 3.77 | 3.70 | 3.28 | 2.90–3.77 |
| RN | 0.47 | 0.62 | 0.39 | 0.25–0.58 |
| Weekend total | 3.62 | 3.51 | 3.11 | — |
| Weekday total | 3.83 | 3.79 | 3.35 | — |
| Quarter | Days | Avg census | Total HPRD | RN | LPN | CNA | Weekend | Contract % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025Q4 | 92 | 37.5 | 3.77 | 0.47 | 0.62 | 2.68 | 3.62 | 23.7% |
| 2025Q3 | 92 | 37.1 | 3.94 | 0.62 | 0.58 | 2.75 | 3.66 | 15.8% |
| 2025Q2 | 91 | 35.2 | 4.25 | 0.65 | 0.58 | 3.02 | 3.80 | 16.3% |
| 2025Q1 | 90 | 36.1 | 4.47 | 0.75 | 0.50 | 3.21 | 4.03 | 22.9% |
| 2024Q4 | 92 | 38.9 | 4.39 | 0.79 | 0.29 | 3.31 | 3.73 | 27.6% |
| 2024Q3 | 92 | 39.8 | 3.72 | 0.75 | 0.20 | 2.77 | 3.08 | 22.6% |
| 2024Q2 | 91 | 38.9 | 3.83 | 0.65 | 0.27 | 2.91 | 3.36 | 16.3% |
| 2024Q1 | 91 | 35.6 | 4.10 | 0.71 | 0.30 | 3.09 | 3.88 | 11.7% |
| 2023Q4 | 92 | 34.4 | 3.95 | 0.56 | 0.50 | 2.89 | 3.76 | 21.1% |
| 2023Q3 | 92 | 33.6 | 3.53 | 0.40 | 0.51 | 2.62 | 3.41 | 16.4% |
| 2023Q2 | 91 | 35.2 | 3.10 | 0.30 | 0.51 | 2.30 | 2.97 | 11.3% |
| 2023Q1 | 90 | 34.3 | 3.23 | 0.44 | 0.48 | 2.31 | 2.99 | 37.5% |
| 2022Q4 | 92 | 33.7 | 2.91 | 0.61 | 0.30 | 2.00 | 2.62 | 28.9% |
| 2022Q3 | 92 | 33.5 | 2.88 | 0.55 | 0.32 | 2.01 | 2.74 | 14.4% |
| 2022Q2 | 91 | 29.5 | 3.30 | 0.59 | 0.40 | 2.31 | 2.93 | 5.4% |
| 2022Q1 | 90 | 28.6 | 3.44 | 0.66 | 0.38 | 2.40 | 3.06 | 8.6% |
| Date | Type | Fine | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-02-09 | Fine | $113,505 | CMS provider data |
| Survey | Type | Tag | Deficiency | Scope | Corrected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-18 | Health · complaint | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | D | 2026-04-07 |
| 2025-03-21 | Health | F0550 | Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights. | E | 2025-04-22 |
| 2025-03-21 | Health | F0561 | Honor the resident's right to and the facility must promote and facilitate resident self-determination through support of resident choice. | D | 2025-04-22 |
| 2025-03-21 | Health | F0645 | PASARR screening for Mental disorders or Intellectual Disabilities | D | 2025-04-22 |
| 2025-03-21 | Health | F0699 | Provide care or services that was trauma informed and/or culturally competent. | D | 2025-04-22 |
| 2025-03-21 | Health | F0760 | Ensure that residents are free from significant medication errors. | D | 2025-04-22 |
| 2025-03-21 | Health | F0849 | Arrange for the provision of hospice services or assist the resident in transferring to a facility that will arrange for the provision of hospice services. | D | 2025-04-22 |
| 2025-01-07 | Health · complaint | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | D | 2025-01-27 |
| 2025-01-07 | Health · complaint | F0726 | Ensure that nurses and nurse aides have the appropriate competencies to care for every resident in a way that maximizes each resident's well being. | E | 2025-01-27 |
| 2024-08-22 | Health · complaint | F0550 | Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights. | D | 2024-09-24 |
| 2024-08-22 | Health · complaint | F0757 | Ensure each resident’s drug regimen must be free from unnecessary drugs. | D | 2024-09-24 |
| 2024-06-26 | Health · complaint | F0600 | Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody. | D | 2024-07-23 |
| 2024-04-25 | Health · complaint | F0609 | Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities. | D | 2024-05-01 |
| 2024-02-09 | Health | F0569 | Notify each resident of certain balances and convey resident funds upon discharge, eviction, or death. | D | 2024-03-25 |
| 2024-02-09 | Health | F0578 | Honor the resident's right to request, refuse, and/or discontinue treatment, to participate in or refuse to participate in experimental research, and to formulate an advance directive. | E | 2024-03-25 |
| 2024-02-09 | Health | F0604 | Ensure that each resident is free from the use of physical restraints, unless needed for medical treatment. | D | 2024-03-25 |
| 2024-02-09 | Health | F0609 | Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities. | E | 2024-03-25 |
| 2024-02-09 | Health | F0610 | Respond appropriately to all alleged violations. | D | 2024-03-25 |
| 2024-02-09 | Health | F0637 | Assess the resident when there is a significant change in condition | D | 2024-03-25 |
| 2024-02-09 | Health | F0655 | Create and put into place a plan for meeting the resident's most immediate needs within 48 hours of being admitted | D | 2024-03-25 |
| 2024-02-09 | Health | F0657 | Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals. | D | 2024-03-25 |
| 2024-02-09 | Health | F0684 | Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals. | D | 2024-03-25 |
| 2024-02-09 | Health | F0688 | Provide appropriate care for a resident to maintain and/or improve range of motion (ROM), limited ROM and/or mobility, unless a decline is for a medical reason. | D | 2024-03-25 |
| 2024-02-09 | Health | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | G | 2024-03-25 |
| 2024-02-09 | Health | F0690 | Provide appropriate care for residents who are continent or incontinent of bowel/bladder, appropriate catheter care, and appropriate care to prevent urinary tract infections. | D | 2024-03-25 |
| 2024-02-09 | Health | F0756 | Ensure a licensed pharmacist perform a monthly drug regimen review, including the medical chart, following irregularity reporting guidelines in developed policies and procedures. | E | 2024-03-25 |
| 2024-02-09 | Health | F0758 | Implement gradual dose reductions(GDR) and non-pharmacological interventions, unless contraindicated, prior to initiating or instead of continuing psychotropic medication; and PRN orders for psychotropic medications are only used when the medication is necessary and PRN use is limited. | E | 2024-03-25 |
| 2024-02-09 | Health | F0759 | Ensure medication error rates are not 5 percent or greater. | D | 2024-03-25 |
| 2024-02-09 | Health | F0760 | Ensure that residents are free from significant medication errors. | D | 2024-03-25 |
| 2024-02-09 | Health | F0791 | Provide or obtain dental services for each resident. | E | 2024-03-25 |
| 2024-02-09 | Health | F0806 | Ensure each resident receives and the facility provides food that accommodates resident allergies, intolerances, and preferences, as well as appealing options. | F | 2024-03-25 |
| 2024-02-09 | Health | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | E | 2024-03-25 |
| 2023-08-23 | Health · complaint | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | D | 2023-09-15 |
| 2023-01-25 | Health | F0550 | Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights. | E | 2023-03-10 |
| 2023-01-25 | Health | F0584 | Honor the resident's right to a safe, clean, comfortable and homelike environment, including but not limited to receiving treatment and supports for daily living safely. | D | 2023-03-10 |
| 2023-01-25 | Health | F0677 | Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable. | D | 2023-03-10 |
| 2023-01-25 | Health | F0684 | Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals. | E | 2023-03-10 |
| 2023-01-25 | Health | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | E | 2023-03-10 |
| 2023-01-25 | Health | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | F | 2023-03-10 |
| 2023-01-25 | Health | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | F | 2023-03-10 |
| Owner | Role | Pct | From | Status | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CARLSON, BARBARA | CORPORATE DIRECTOR | — | 2020-01-21 | current | pecos_ownership |
| DILLENBURG, JEAN | CORPORATE DIRECTOR | — | 2014-01-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| GAERTNER, ERICA | W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE | — | 2020-08-20 | current | pecos_ownership |
| PALMER, THERESA | W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE | — | 2019-02-04 | current | pecos_ownership |
| PUBLIC HOSPITAL DISTRICT 4 OF GRANT COUNTY | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2022-05-12 | current | pecos_ownership |
| RANG, CINDI | CORPORATE DIRECTOR | — | 2021-12-15 | current | pecos_ownership |
| SPENCER, JUDY | CORPORATE DIRECTOR | — | 2020-01-21 | current | pecos_ownership |
| WELLEIN, STEPHEN | CORPORATE DIRECTOR | — | 2014-01-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| ERICA GAERTNER | W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE | 100% | 2020-08-20 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| BARBARA CARLSON | CORPORATE DIRECTOR | — | 2020-01-21 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| CINDI RANG | CORPORATE DIRECTOR | — | 2021-12-15 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| JEAN DILLENBURG | CORPORATE DIRECTOR | — | 2014-01-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| JUDY SPENCER | CORPORATE DIRECTOR | — | 2020-01-21 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| STEPHEN WELLEIN | CORPORATE DIRECTOR | — | 2014-01-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| THERESA PALMER | W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE | — | 2019-02-04 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| Close | Facility | Price | $/bed | Cap rate | Beds | Buyer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-06-01 | Bremerton Trails Post Acute | — | — | — | 125 | RINCON BEACH, LLC |
| 2025-06-01 | Othello Post Acute | — | — | — | 39 | DOHENY BEACH, LLC |
| 2025-06-01 | Edmonds Post Acute | — | — | — | 128 | SALT CREEK BEACH, LLC |
| 2025-05-21 | AURORA VALLEY CARE | — | — | — | 124 | AURORA VALLEY CARE LLC |
| 2025-05-21 | THREE RIVERS CARE | — | — | — | 83 | THREE RIVERS CARE LLC |
| 2025-05-21 | FIR LANE CARE | — | — | — | 135 | FIR LANE CARE LLC |
| 2025-05-21 | SPOKANE FALLS CARE | — | — | — | 100 | SPOKANE FALLS CARE LLC |
| 2025-05-01 | MARIANWOOD HEALTH AND REHABILITATION | — | — | — | 117 | LUNA VEGA HEALTHCARE LLC |
| 2025-04-01 | WOODARD CREEK HEALTH & REHABILITATION | — | — | — | 152 | WOODARD SNF OPERATIONS LLC |
| 2025-03-12 | Avalon Healthcare - Tacoma | — | — | — | 81 | AVALON HEALTHCARE-TACOMA LLC |
| 2025-03-01 | SOUTH HILL REHABILITATION AND CARE CENTER | — | — | — | 113 | LAST EMPIRE HEALTHCARE LLC |
| 2024-08-01 | PINE RIDGE POST ACUTE | — | — | — | 80 | PINE RIDGE SNF HEALTHCARE LLC |
| Geo | Kind | BR | Amount | As of | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| county 53025 | acs median gross | 0 | $983 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 53025 | fmr | 0 | $933 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 53025 | acs median gross | 1 | $783 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 53025 | fmr | 1 | $939 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 53025 | acs median gross | 2 | $1,090 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 53025 | fmr | 2 | $1,232 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 53025 | acs median gross | 3 | $1,297 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 53025 | fmr | 3 | $1,707 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 53025 | acs median gross | 4 | $1,412 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 53025 | fmr | 4 | $2,067 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 53025 | acs median gross | 5 | $1,200 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 53025 | acs median gross | $1,116 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| county 53025 | acs recent mover gross | $1,539 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 98851 | acs median gross | 0 | $642 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 98851 | acs median gross | 1 | $747 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 98851 | acs median gross | 2 | $688 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 98851 | acs median gross | 3 | $1,088 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 98851 | acs median gross | $1,001 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zip 98851 | payment standard 110 | 0 | $902 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 98851 | payment standard 90 | 0 | $738 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 98851 | safmr | 0 | $820 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 98851 | payment standard 110 | 1 | $913 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 98851 | payment standard 90 | 1 | $747 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 98851 | safmr | 1 | $830 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 98851 | payment standard 110 | 2 | $1,166 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 98851 | payment standard 90 | 2 | $954 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 98851 | safmr | 2 | $1,060 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 98851 | payment standard 110 | 3 | $1,639 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 98851 | payment standard 90 | 3 | $1,341 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 98851 | safmr | 3 | $1,490 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 98851 | payment standard 110 | 4 | $1,958 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 98851 | payment standard 90 | 4 | $1,602 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 98851 | safmr | 4 | $1,780 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |