Reads as: riskier than 98.0% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
14
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
anomaly
Top-decile risk vs 4–5 star rating
12.0
this facility
2026-07-29
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+31.3 vs natl
OAKDALE SENIORS ALLIANCE LLC
8 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+29.3 vs natl
KISSLING MONICA
16 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+28.8 vs natl
MATHENY CYNTHIA
5 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+28.5 vs natl
TROMPLER KELLY
16 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+28.5 vs natl
MCBEAN PATRICIA
16 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+28.5 vs natl
KEETON WENDY
16 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+28.5 vs natl
HOLT ERIN
16 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+22.4 vs natl
SANDERSON CLARK
58 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
50% fined
HOLT ERIN
16 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
50% fined
KEETON WENDY
16 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
50% fined
KISSLING MONICA
16 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
50% fined
MCBEAN PATRICIA
16 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
50% fined
TROMPLER KELLY
16 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
TX median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
2.32
2.67
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.40
0.24
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
2.16
2.56
3.11
—
Weekday total
2.38
2.72
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
99.8
2.32
0.40
0.60
1.32
2.16
0.0%
2025Q3
92
84.4
2.73
0.43
0.70
1.60
2.57
0.0%
2025Q2
91
77.1
2.91
0.46
0.74
1.71
2.84
0.0%
2025Q1
90
75.5
3.04
0.45
0.76
1.83
3.08
0.0%
2024Q4
92
74.2
3.04
0.42
0.81
1.81
3.00
0.0%
2024Q3
92
78.9
3.17
0.56
0.68
1.93
2.98
0.0%
2024Q2
91
71.5
3.22
0.55
0.73
1.95
3.26
0.0%
2024Q1
91
72.9
3.10
0.50
0.70
1.90
3.20
0.0%
2023Q4
92
75.4
3.11
0.48
0.72
1.92
3.21
0.0%
2023Q3
92
80.4
3.10
0.43
0.77
1.90
3.15
0.0%
2023Q2
91
71.6
3.00
0.40
0.73
1.87
3.20
5.8%
2023Q1
90
75.8
3.39
0.41
0.94
2.04
3.49
9.1%
2022Q4
92
76.1
3.51
0.42
0.95
2.14
3.48
1.7%
2022Q3
92
68.5
3.00
0.36
0.78
1.86
2.81
0.2%
2022Q2
91
72.2
3.77
0.28
1.02
2.47
3.30
0.7%
2022Q1
90
66.7
3.81
0.23
1.21
2.38
3.37
7.3%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Reasonably accommodate the needs and preferences of each resident.
D
2025-12-10
2025-08-16
Health · complaint
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
D
2025-08-26
2025-08-13
Health · complaint
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
J
2025-05-02
2025-08-13
Health · complaint
F0842
Safeguard resident-identifiable information and/or maintain medical records on each resident that are in accordance with accepted professional standards.
D
2025-09-11
2025-06-18
Health · complaint
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
J
2025-06-16
2025-03-13
Health
F0755
Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist.
E
2025-03-27
2025-03-13
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
D
2025-03-27
2025-02-19
Health · complaint
F0839
Employ staff that are licensed, certified, or registered in accordance with state laws.
E
2024-12-30
2024-12-18
Health · complaint
F0755
Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist.
J
2024-10-19
2024-12-18
Health · complaint
F0760
Ensure that residents are free from significant medication errors.
K
2024-10-19
2024-09-19
Health · complaint
F0609
Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities.
D
2024-10-19
2024-02-08
Health · complaint
F0582
Give residents notice of Medicaid/Medicare coverage and potential liability for services not covered.
E
2024-03-06
2024-02-08
Health
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
E
2024-03-06
2024-02-08
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
E
2024-03-06
2024-02-08
Health · complaint
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2024-03-06
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
44
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
BAKER, AMELIA
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-12-17
current
pecos_ownership
BECK, KARI
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-12-01
current
pecos_ownership
BONCREST RESOURCE GROUP INC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-12-01
current
pecos_ownership
CCC MESQUITE MANAGEMENT LLC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-12-01
current
pecos_ownership
CORRIGAN, FRANK
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-12-17
current
pecos_ownership
FANNIN COUNTY HOSPITAL AUTHORITY
—
—
2024-12-01
current
tx_hhsc_directory
GERMAN, TODD
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-12-01
current
pecos_ownership
HOLT, ERIN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-12-17
current
pecos_ownership
JOHNSON, MATTHEW
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-12-17
current
pecos_ownership
KEETON, WENDY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-12-17
current
pecos_ownership
KISSLING, MONICA
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-12-17
current
pecos_ownership
LANGSTON, KARLA
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-12-01
current
pecos_ownership
LANGSTON, KARLA
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-04-03
current
pecos_ownership
MATHENY, CYNTHIA
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-12-01
current
pecos_ownership
MCBEAN, PATRICIA
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-12-17
current
pecos_ownership
MCMULLAN, JOHN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-12-17
current
pecos_ownership
MESQUITE SENIOR CARE LLC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-12-01
current
pecos_ownership
MESQUITE SENIOR CARE LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-12-12
current
pecos_ownership
MESQUITE SENIOR CARE, LLC
—
—
2024-12-01
current
tx_hhsc_directory
OAKDALE SENIORS ALLIANCE, LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-12-12
current
pecos_ownership
OAKDALE SENIORS ALLIANCE, LLC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-12-01
current
pecos_ownership
OWENS, ANGELA
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-12-17
current
pecos_ownership
ROSENBAUM, MAURICE
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-12-17
current
pecos_ownership
SANDERSON, CLARK
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-12-01
current
pecos_ownership
THOMPSON, JOYCE
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-12-01
current
pecos_ownership
TROMPLER, KELLY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-12-17
current
pecos_ownership
AMELIA BAKER
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-12-17
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ANGELA OWENS
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-12-17
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CLARK SANDERSON
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2024-12-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CYNTHIA MATHENY
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-12-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ERIN HOLT
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-12-17
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
FRANK CORRIGAN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-12-17
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOHN MCMULLAN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-12-17
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOYCE THOMPSON
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-12-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
KARI BECK
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-12-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
KARLA LANGSTON
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-12-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
KARLA LANGSTON
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-04-03
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
KELLY TROMPLER
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-12-17
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MATTHEW JOHNSON
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-12-17
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MAURICE ROSENBAUM
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-12-17
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MONICA KISSLING
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-12-17
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PATRICIA MCBEAN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-12-17
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
TODD GERMAN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-12-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
WENDY KEETON
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-12-17
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
3
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2022-11-30
$6,889,350
—
—
—
$614,639
0
propco
2021-12-31
$3,405,573
—
—
—
$338,339
0
propco
2020-12-31
$1,908,149
—
—
—
$299,484
0
propco
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
36
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 48113
acs median gross
0
$1,385
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48113
fmr
0
$1,582
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 48113
acs median gross
1
$1,400
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48113
fmr
1
$1,648
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 48113
acs median gross
2
$1,638
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48113
fmr
2
$1,931
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 48113
acs median gross
3
$1,823
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48113
fmr
3
$2,431
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 48113
acs median gross
4
$2,241
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48113
fmr
4
$3,091
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 48113
acs median gross
5
$2,432
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48113
acs median gross
$1,565
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48113
acs recent mover gross
$1,745
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 75150
acs median gross
0
$1,379
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 75150
acs median gross
1
$1,247
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 75150
acs median gross
2
$1,495
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 75150
acs median gross
3
$1,801
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 75150
acs median gross
4
$1,944
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 75150
acs median gross
5
$2,250
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 75150
acs median gross
$1,461
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 75150
acs recent mover gross
$1,629
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 75150
payment standard 110
0
$1,650
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 75150
payment standard 90
0
$1,350
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 75150
safmr
0
$1,500
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 75150
payment standard 110
1
$1,716
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 75150
payment standard 90
1
$1,404
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 75150
safmr
1
$1,560
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 75150
payment standard 110
2
$2,013
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 75150
payment standard 90
2
$1,647
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 75150
safmr
2
$1,830
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 75150
payment standard 110
3
$2,530
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 75150
payment standard 90
3
$2,070
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 75150
safmr
3
$2,300
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 75150
payment standard 110
4
$3,223
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 75150
payment standard 90
4
$2,637
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 75150
safmr
4
$2,930
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.