Reads as: riskier than 98.0% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
NC median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
3.71
3.08
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.44
0.30
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
3.86
2.93
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.64
3.14
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
107.4
3.71
0.44
0.95
2.31
3.86
36.8%
2025Q3
92
113.0
3.58
0.39
0.83
2.35
3.57
49.8%
2025Q2
91
108.9
3.32
0.40
0.71
2.21
3.26
47.8%
2025Q1
90
112.6
3.00
0.31
0.51
2.18
3.00
31.4%
2024Q4
92
116.2
3.38
0.31
0.74
2.33
3.26
36.8%
2024Q3
92
105.9
3.56
0.44
0.62
2.51
3.37
33.4%
2024Q2
91
85.1
3.58
0.50
0.56
2.52
3.42
21.6%
2024Q1
91
77.4
3.45
0.62
0.47
2.36
3.28
24.2%
2023Q4
92
73.3
3.62
0.87
0.39
2.35
3.30
12.8%
2023Q3
92
67.9
3.79
0.79
0.52
2.48
3.48
15.2%
2023Q2
91
71.3
3.76
0.68
0.62
2.46
3.41
14.1%
2023Q1
90
74.6
3.33
0.49
0.60
2.24
3.05
18.9%
2022Q4
92
72.7
3.51
0.60
0.67
2.24
3.14
11.8%
2022Q3
92
68.1
3.90
0.88
0.67
2.35
3.40
10.9%
2022Q2
91
63.4
4.13
1.02
0.58
2.54
3.61
8.2%
2022Q1
90
61.6
4.25
1.09
0.66
2.50
3.67
5.5%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Ensure services provided by the nursing facility meet professional standards of quality.
D
2026-01-15
2026-01-08
Health · complaint
F0759
Ensure medication error rates are not 5 percent or greater.
D
2026-01-15
2026-01-08
Health · complaint
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
D
2026-01-15
2026-01-08
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2026-01-15
2025-08-26
Health · complaint
F0627
Ensure the transfer/discharge meets the resident's needs/preferences and that the resident is prepared for a safe transfer/discharge.
D
2025-08-29
2025-01-13
Health · complaint
F0580
Immediately tell the resident, the resident's doctor, and a family member of situations (injury/decline/room, etc.) that affect the resident.
J
2025-01-14
2025-01-13
Health · complaint
F0600
Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody.
J
2025-01-14
2025-01-13
Health · complaint
F0609
Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities.
D
2025-01-14
2025-01-13
Health · complaint
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
J
2025-01-14
2025-01-13
Health · complaint
F0697
Provide safe, appropriate pain management for a resident who requires such services.
G
2025-01-14
2025-01-13
Health · complaint
F0714
Ensure the physician properly assigns and delegates tasks to a physician assistant, nurse practitioner or clinical nurse specialist.
J
2025-01-14
2024-10-08
Health · complaint
F0606
Not hire anyone with a finding of abuse, neglect, exploitation, or theft.
D
2024-10-09
2024-10-08
Health · complaint
F0607
Develop and implement policies and procedures to prevent abuse, neglect, and theft.
E
2024-10-09
2024-10-08
Health · complaint
F0623
Provide timely notification to the resident, and if applicable to the resident representative and ombudsman, before transfer or discharge, including appeal rights.
D
2024-10-09
2024-10-08
Health
F0655
Create and put into place a plan for meeting the resident's most immediate needs within 48 hours of being admitted
D
2024-10-09
2024-10-08
Health · complaint
F0658
Ensure services provided by the nursing facility meet professional standards of quality.
D
2024-10-09
2024-10-08
Health
F0661
Ensure necessary information is communicated to the resident, and receiving health care provider at the time of a planned discharge.
D
2024-10-09
2024-10-08
Health · complaint
F0678
Provide basic life support, including CPR, prior to the arrival of emergency medical personnel , subject to physician orders and the resident’s advance directives.
J
2024-10-09
2024-10-08
Health · complaint
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
J
2024-10-09
2024-10-08
Health · complaint
F0686
Provide appropriate pressure ulcer care and prevent new ulcers from developing.
D
2024-10-09
2024-10-08
Health · complaint
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
D
2024-08-15
2024-10-08
Health
F0692
Provide enough food/fluids to maintain a resident's health.
D
2024-10-09
2024-10-08
Health
F0726
Ensure that nurses and nurse aides have the appropriate competencies to care for every resident in a way that maximizes each resident's well being.
J
2024-10-09
2024-10-08
Health
F0755
Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist.
E
2024-10-09
2024-10-08
Health
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
E
2024-10-09
2024-10-08
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2024-10-09
2024-06-14
Health · complaint
F0693
Ensure that feeding tubes are not used unless there is a medical reason and the resident agrees; and provide appropriate care for a resident with a feeding tube.
D
2024-06-28
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
12
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
CAPITAL HOLDINGS TRUST
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
37%
2024-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
VALLEY HOLDINGS NC LLC
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
12%
2024-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
HORIZON HEALTHCARE GROUP LLC
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
10%
2024-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
JEREMIAS, SAMUEL
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
10%
2024-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
LOFTIN, SANDRA
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2024-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
STERN, JACOB
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2024-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
JACOB STERN
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
100%
2024-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SANDRA LOFTIN
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
100%
2024-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
1026 ENTERPRISES II, LLC
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
39%
2024-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
STARLIGHT HEALTHCARE LLC
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
39%
2024-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
10-26 NATIONWIDE TR
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
37%
2024-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SAMUEL JEREMIAS
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
10%
2024-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
6
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-12-31
$960,831
—
$920,007
—
—
1
—
2023-12-31
$63,931
—
—
—
—
1
—
2023-09-30
$196,411
—
—
—
—
1
—
2022-09-30
$178,842
—
—
—
—
1
—
2021-09-30
$120,206
—
—
—
—
1
—
2020-09-30
$114,321
—
—
—
—
1
—
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
31
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 37003
fmr
0
$858
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 37003
acs median gross
1
$546
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 37003
fmr
1
$908
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 37003
acs median gross
2
$770
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 37003
fmr
2
$1,095
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 37003
acs median gross
3
$746
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 37003
fmr
3
$1,372
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 37003
acs median gross
4
$1,136
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 37003
fmr
4
$1,660
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 37003
acs median gross
$764
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 37003
acs recent mover gross
$1,075
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 28681
acs median gross
1
$470
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 28681
acs median gross
2
$763
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 28681
acs median gross
3
$733
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 28681
acs median gross
$736
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 28681
acs recent mover gross
$1,181
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 28681
payment standard 110
0
$847
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28681
payment standard 90
0
$693
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28681
safmr
0
$770
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28681
payment standard 110
1
$891
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28681
payment standard 90
1
$729
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28681
safmr
1
$810
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28681
payment standard 110
2
$1,078
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28681
payment standard 90
2
$882
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28681
safmr
2
$980
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28681
payment standard 110
3
$1,353
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28681
payment standard 90
3
$1,107
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28681
safmr
3
$1,230
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28681
payment standard 110
4
$1,639
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28681
payment standard 90
4
$1,341
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28681
safmr
4
$1,490
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.