Composite
95.3 / 100 percentile
| Component | Percentile | Raw | Weight | Weight share | Contribution | Counts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| regulatory risk | 88.6 | 86.0 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 20.45 | in index |
| financial risk | 80.0 | 66.9 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 18.46 | in index |
| billing conduct | 77.2 | 51.3 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 17.82 | in index |
| staffing risk | 50.5 | 50.5 | 0.25 | 0.1923 | 9.71 | in index |
| chow risk | 45.6 | 52.4 | 0.15 | 0.1154 | 5.26 | in index |
| Kind | Finding | Signal | Subject | First seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| connection | Owner spans multiple chains | 4 chains | OSTREICHER MARVIN | 29 facilities |
| Score type | Score | Grade | Model | Status | Registry model notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| billing conduct | 51.3 | C | v0.1-pacpuf-snf | default · in composite | R22. PAC PUF SNF 2023. PDPM coding intensity vs acuity, stay length, charge markup. |
| chow risk | 22.6 | A | v0.1-pos | default · in composite | Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure. |
| chow risk | 82.2 | F | v0.6 | default · in composite | |
| financial risk | 66.9 | D | v0.5 | default · in composite | R18. |
| p adverse action 12m | 0.1 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite. |
| p chow 12m | 2.0 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite. |
| regulatory risk | 86.0 | F | v0.3 | default · in composite | Deficiency-based, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.5-pos. |
| staffing risk | 50.5 | C | v0.3 | default · in composite | Cost-report staffing, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.4-pos, which covers ICF/IID from POS. |
| financial risk | 74.7 | D | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 54.7 | C | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 68.3 | D | v0.3 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 66.4 | D | v0.4 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 86.0 | F | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 86.0 | F | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 50.5 | C | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 50.5 | C | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| For-profit ownership | 1.00 | +0.69 | |
| Occupancy | 0.92 | -0.66 | |
| Never sold on record | 1.00 | +0.62 | |
| Current owner tenure (years) | 25.00 | +0.57 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.42 | |
| Chain size (log) | 0.00 | -0.40 | |
| Ownership changes, last 5 years | 0.00 | +0.20 | |
| Contract staffing share | 0.15 | +0.14 |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chain size (log) | 0.00 | +1.20 | |
| Occupancy | 0.92 | -0.74 | |
| For-profit ownership | 1.00 | -0.69 | |
| Deficiencies, last 12 months | 5.00 | +0.50 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.39 | |
| Fine amount, 12m (log) | 0.00 | +0.18 | |
| Never sold on record | 1.00 | +0.12 | |
| Current owner tenure (years) | 25.00 | +0.11 |
| 2025Q4 HPRD | This facility | CT median | National median | National p25–p75 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total nurse | 3.27 | 3.46 | 3.28 | 2.90–3.77 |
| RN | 0.30 | 0.40 | 0.39 | 0.25–0.58 |
| Weekend total | 3.00 | 3.25 | 3.11 | — |
| Weekday total | 3.38 | 3.51 | 3.35 | — |
| Quarter | Days | Avg census | Total HPRD | RN | LPN | CNA | Weekend | Contract % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025Q4 | 92 | 110.9 | 3.27 | 0.30 | 0.84 | 2.13 | 3.00 | 15.2% |
| 2025Q3 | 92 | 108.4 | 3.55 | 0.32 | 0.81 | 2.41 | 3.33 | 20.3% |
| 2025Q2 | 91 | 110.6 | 3.25 | 0.32 | 0.79 | 2.13 | 3.07 | 11.3% |
| 2025Q1 | 90 | 106.8 | 3.23 | 0.27 | 0.79 | 2.17 | 3.13 | 9.1% |
| 2024Q4 | 92 | 107.3 | 3.24 | 0.33 | 0.77 | 2.15 | 3.13 | 10.3% |
| 2024Q3 | 92 | 110.6 | 3.12 | 0.31 | 0.76 | 2.05 | 2.92 | 10.8% |
| 2024Q2 | 91 | 109.2 | 3.14 | 0.34 | 0.77 | 2.04 | 2.93 | 11.1% |
| 2024Q1 | 91 | 105.9 | 3.18 | 0.38 | 0.79 | 2.01 | 2.98 | 7.4% |
| 2023Q4 | 92 | 97.8 | 3.78 | 0.46 | 0.95 | 2.37 | 3.47 | 17.5% |
| 2023Q3 | 92 | 84.8 | 3.47 | 0.40 | 0.91 | 2.16 | 3.32 | 6.7% |
| 2023Q2 | 91 | 102.9 | 3.14 | 0.29 | 0.81 | 2.03 | 2.99 | 17.0% |
| 2023Q1 | 90 | 105.8 | 3.09 | 0.29 | 0.82 | 1.98 | 2.88 | 21.1% |
| 2022Q4 | 92 | 99.9 | 3.28 | 0.33 | 0.82 | 2.13 | 3.14 | 21.6% |
| 2022Q3 | 92 | 96.7 | 3.27 | 0.37 | 0.75 | 2.16 | 3.04 | 22.5% |
| 2022Q2 | 91 | 99.6 | 3.04 | 0.34 | 0.74 | 1.96 | 2.88 | 14.2% |
| 2022Q1 | 90 | 92.8 | 3.20 | 0.40 | 0.78 | 2.02 | 2.92 | 9.8% |
| Date | Type | Fine | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-06-20 | Fine | $10,868 | CMS provider data |
| 2025-01-07 | Fine | $195,360 | CMS provider data |
| Survey | Type | Tag | Deficiency | Scope | Corrected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-15 | Health · complaint | F0580 | Immediately tell the resident, the resident's doctor, and a family member of situations (injury/decline/room, etc.) that affect the resident. | D | 2026-05-20 |
| 2026-04-15 | Health · complaint | F0583 | Keep residents' personal and medical records private and confidential. | D | 2026-05-20 |
| 2026-04-15 | Health · complaint | F0600 | Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody. | G | — |
| 2026-04-15 | Health · complaint | F0684 | Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals. | D | 2026-05-20 |
| 2026-04-15 | Health · complaint | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | D | 2026-05-20 |
| 2025-07-21 | Health · complaint | F0580 | Immediately tell the resident, the resident's doctor, and a family member of situations (injury/decline/room, etc.) that affect the resident. | D | 2025-08-27 |
| 2025-07-21 | Health · complaint | F0600 | Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody. | D | 2025-08-27 |
| 2025-06-24 | Health · complaint | F0600 | Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody. | D | 2025-08-05 |
| 2025-06-20 | Health · complaint | F0658 | Ensure services provided by the nursing facility meet professional standards of quality. | D | 2025-07-28 |
| 2025-06-20 | Health · complaint | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | G | 2025-07-28 |
| 2025-01-07 | Health · complaint | F0600 | Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody. | J | 2025-01-07 |
| 2024-09-26 | Health · complaint | F0550 | Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights. | D | 2024-11-08 |
| 2024-09-26 | Health · complaint | F0842 | Safeguard resident-identifiable information and/or maintain medical records on each resident that are in accordance with accepted professional standards. | D | 2024-11-08 |
| 2023-12-28 | Health · complaint | F0600 | Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody. | E | 2024-02-08 |
| 2023-12-28 | Health · complaint | F0609 | Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities. | D | 2024-02-08 |
| 2023-12-28 | Health · complaint | F0656 | Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured. | D | 2024-02-08 |
| 2023-08-29 | Health · complaint | F0580 | Immediately tell the resident, the resident's doctor, and a family member of situations (injury/decline/room, etc.) that affect the resident. | D | 2023-08-15 |
| 2023-08-29 | Health · complaint | F0609 | Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities. | D | 2023-09-29 |
| 2023-08-29 | Health · complaint | F0842 | Safeguard resident-identifiable information and/or maintain medical records on each resident that are in accordance with accepted professional standards. | D | 2023-08-15 |
| 2023-08-14 | Health | F0578 | Honor the resident's right to request, refuse, and/or discontinue treatment, to participate in or refuse to participate in experimental research, and to formulate an advance directive. | D | 2023-09-22 |
| 2023-08-14 | Health · complaint | F0600 | Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody. | D | 2023-09-22 |
| 2023-08-14 | Health | F0657 | Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals. | D | 2023-09-22 |
| 2023-08-14 | Health | F0658 | Ensure services provided by the nursing facility meet professional standards of quality. | D | 2023-09-22 |
| 2023-08-14 | Health · complaint | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | D | 2023-09-22 |
| 2023-08-14 | Health | F0761 | Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs. | D | 2023-09-22 |
| 2023-08-14 | Health | F0809 | Ensure meals and snacks are served at times in accordance with resident’s needs, preferences, and requests. Suitable and nourishing alternative meals and snacks must be provided for residents who want to eat at non-traditional times or outside of scheduled meal times. | E | 2023-09-22 |
| 2023-08-14 | Health | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | E | 2023-09-22 |
| 2023-08-14 | Health | F0851 | Electronically submit to CMS complete and accurate direct care staffing information, based on payroll and other verifiable and auditable data. | C | 2023-09-22 |
| 2023-08-14 | Health | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | E | 2023-09-22 |
| 2023-07-17 | Health · complaint | F0600 | Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody. | D | 2023-08-28 |
| 2023-07-17 | Health · complaint | F0609 | Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities. | D | 2023-08-28 |
| 2023-07-17 | Health · complaint | F0842 | Safeguard resident-identifiable information and/or maintain medical records on each resident that are in accordance with accepted professional standards. | B | 2023-08-28 |
| 2020-02-28 | Health | F0600 | Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody. | D | 2020-04-10 |
| 2020-02-28 | Health | F0686 | Provide appropriate pressure ulcer care and prevent new ulcers from developing. | E | 2020-04-10 |
| 2020-02-28 | Health | F0697 | Provide safe, appropriate pain management for a resident who requires such services. | D | 2020-04-10 |
| 2019-01-29 | Health | F0578 | Honor the resident's right to request, refuse, and/or discontinue treatment, to participate in or refuse to participate in experimental research, and to formulate an advance directive. | D | 2019-02-07 |
| 2019-01-29 | Health | F0623 | Provide timely notification to the resident, and if applicable to the resident representative and ombudsman, before transfer or discharge, including appeal rights. | C | 2019-02-07 |
| 2019-01-29 | Health | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | D | 2019-02-07 |
| 2019-01-29 | Health | F0744 | Provide the appropriate treatment and services to a resident who displays or is diagnosed with dementia. | D | 2019-02-07 |
| 2019-01-29 | Health | F0804 | Ensure food and drink is palatable, attractive, and at a safe and appetizing temperature. | E | 2019-02-07 |
| Owner | Role | Pct | From | Status | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OSTREICHER, MARVIN | 5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 50% | — | current | pecos_ownership |
| ZITTER, AGNES | 5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 50% | — | current | pecos_ownership |
| GUASTELLA, ROBERT | W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE | — | 2018-12-12 | current | pecos_ownership |
| OSTREICHER, MARVIN | W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE | — | 2004-09-07 | current | pecos_ownership |
| OSTREICHER, MARVIN | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2009-12-07 | current | pecos_ownership |
| MARVIN OSTREICHER | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | 100% | 2009-12-07 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| ROBERT GUASTELLA | W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE | 100% | 2018-12-12 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| AGNES ZITTER | CORPORATE OFFICER | 50% | — | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| MARVIN OSTREICHER | 5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 50% | — | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| THOMAS GILMARTIN | OTHER | 0% | 2016-07-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| MARVIN OSTREICHER | W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE | — | 2004-09-07 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| Close | Facility | Price | $/bed | Cap rate | Beds | Buyer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-21 | INGRAHAM MANOR REHAB AND NURSING | — | — | — | 128 | IM OPCO LLC |
| 2025-05-15 | HAVENCARE AT LITCHFIELD WOODS | — | — | — | 160 | LITCHFIELD OPCO LLC |
| 2025-05-15 | HAVENCARE AT VALERIE MANOR | — | — | — | 151 | VALERIE OPCO LLC |
| 2024-10-10 | SHADY KNOLL CENTER FOR HEALTH & REHABILITATION | — | — | — | 128 | SHADY KNOLL ACQUISITION OPERATOR LLC |
| 2024-10-10 | MAEFAIR CENTER FOR HEALTH & REHABILITATION | — | — | — | 134 | MAEFAIR ACQUISITION OPERATOR LLC |
| 2024-10-10 | GLASTONBURY CENTER FOR HEALTH & REHABILITATION | — | — | — | 105 | GLASTONBURY ACQUISITION OPERATOR LLC |
| 2024-08-01 | MANSFIELD CENTER FOR NURSING AND REHABILITATION | — | — | — | 98 | MANSFIELD ACQUISITION OPERATOR LLC |
| 2024-06-07 | EVERGREEN CENTER FOR HEALTH & REHABILITATION | — | — | — | 180 | EVERGREEN ACQUISITION OPERATOR LLC |
| 2024-06-07 | MONTOWESE CENTER FOR HEALTH & REHABILITATION | — | — | — | 120 | MONTOWESE ACQUISITION OPERATOR LLC |
| 2024-06-07 | SHARON CENTER FOR HEALTH & REHABILITATION | — | — | — | 88 | SHARON ACQUISITION OPERATOR LLC |
| 2024-06-07 | BEACON BROOK CENTER FOR HEALTH & REHABILITATION | — | — | — | 126 | BEACON BROOK ACQUISITION OPERATOR LLC |
| 2024-06-07 | STONE BRIDGE CENTER FOR HEALTH & REHABILITATION | — | — | — | 154 | NEWTOWN ACQUISITION OPERATOR LLC |
| Geo | Kind | BR | Amount | As of | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| county 09110 | acs median gross | 0 | $1,036 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 09110 | acs median gross | 1 | $1,183 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 09110 | acs median gross | 2 | $1,532 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 09110 | acs median gross | 3 | $1,594 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 09110 | acs median gross | 4 | $1,851 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 09110 | acs median gross | 5 | $2,536 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 09110 | acs median gross | $1,411 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| county 09110 | acs recent mover gross | $1,678 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 06447 | acs median gross | 1 | $946 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 06447 | acs median gross | $1,333 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zip 06447 | payment standard 110 | 0 | $1,452 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 06447 | payment standard 90 | 0 | $1,188 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 06447 | safmr | 0 | $1,320 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 06447 | payment standard 110 | 1 | $1,661 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 06447 | payment standard 90 | 1 | $1,359 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 06447 | safmr | 1 | $1,510 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 06447 | payment standard 110 | 2 | $2,101 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 06447 | payment standard 90 | 2 | $1,719 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 06447 | safmr | 2 | $1,910 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 06447 | payment standard 110 | 3 | $2,519 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 06447 | payment standard 90 | 3 | $2,061 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 06447 | safmr | 3 | $2,290 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 06447 | payment standard 110 | 4 | $2,860 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 06447 | payment standard 90 | 4 | $2,340 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 06447 | safmr | 4 | $2,600 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |