Reads as: riskier than 72.7% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
8
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+20.9 vs natl
MICHELLE OSTREICHER FAMILY TRUST
10 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
5 chains
PREFERRED THERAPY SOLUTIONS LLC
25 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
4 chains
OSTREICHER MARC
24 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
4 chains
NATIONAL HEALTH CARE ASSOCIATES INC
24 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
4 chains
OSTREICHER MARVIN
29 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
4 chains
OSTREICHER DAVID
18 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
60% fined
OSTREICHER MICHELLE
5 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
43% fined
OSTREICHER ILANA
7 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
15
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
CT median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
3.63
3.46
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.41
0.40
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
3.62
3.25
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.64
3.51
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
82.9
3.63
0.41
0.86
2.36
3.62
21.4%
2025Q3
92
82.7
3.62
0.33
0.93
2.37
3.60
14.5%
2025Q1
90
78.0
3.71
0.35
0.96
2.40
3.56
13.8%
2024Q4
92
75.4
3.67
0.36
1.00
2.30
3.57
13.4%
2024Q3
92
78.5
3.57
0.33
1.03
2.21
3.41
0.0%
2024Q2
91
75.5
3.89
0.49
0.91
2.48
3.38
0.0%
2024Q1
91
74.7
4.09
0.71
0.93
2.45
3.75
0.0%
2023Q4
92
61.0
3.58
0.72
0.61
2.24
3.17
0.0%
2023Q3
92
53.2
4.23
0.86
0.76
2.62
3.76
0.0%
2023Q2
91
50.2
4.66
0.94
0.69
3.04
3.99
0.0%
2023Q1
90
50.9
4.71
0.86
0.74
3.12
4.18
0.0%
2022Q4
92
48.4
4.70
0.63
0.82
3.25
4.35
0.0%
2022Q3
92
47.3
4.28
0.97
0.81
2.50
3.78
0.0%
2022Q2
91
46.9
4.37
1.02
0.89
2.46
3.90
0.0%
2022Q1
90
46.3
4.13
0.95
0.69
2.48
3.62
0.0%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Immediately tell the resident, the resident's doctor, and a family member of situations (injury/decline/room, etc.) that affect the resident.
D
—
2026-04-21
Health · complaint
F0755
Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist.
D
—
2025-12-04
Health · complaint
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
D
2026-01-09
2025-12-04
Health · complaint
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
G
2025-11-25
2025-04-10
Health · complaint
F0658
Ensure services provided by the nursing facility meet professional standards of quality.
D
2025-05-30
2025-04-10
Health · complaint
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
G
2025-05-30
2025-04-10
Health
F0755
Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist.
E
2025-05-30
2025-04-10
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
F
2025-05-30
2025-04-10
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
F
2025-05-30
2025-04-10
Health
F0881
Implement a program that monitors antibiotic use.
F
2025-05-30
2025-01-13
Health · complaint
F0602
Protect each resident from the wrongful use of the resident's belongings or money.
D
2025-02-12
2025-01-13
Health · complaint
F0609
Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities.
D
2025-02-12
2025-01-02
Health · complaint
F0580
Immediately tell the resident, the resident's doctor, and a family member of situations (injury/decline/room, etc.) that affect the resident.
D
2025-02-06
2024-11-26
Health · complaint
F0585
Honor the resident's right to voice grievances without discrimination or reprisal and the facility must establish a grievance policy and make prompt efforts to resolve grievances.
D
2025-01-03
2024-11-26
Health · complaint
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
D
2025-01-03
2024-07-18
Health · complaint
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
D
2024-07-12
2023-04-11
Health
F0584
Honor the resident's right to a safe, clean, comfortable and homelike environment, including but not limited to receiving treatment and supports for daily living safely.
E
2023-05-23
2023-04-11
Health
F0609
Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities.
D
2023-05-23
2023-04-11
Health
F0610
Respond appropriately to all alleged violations.
D
2023-05-23
2023-04-11
Health
F0640
Encode each resident’s assessment data and transmit these data to the State within 7 days of assessment.
B
2023-05-23
2023-04-11
Health
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
D
2023-05-23
2023-04-11
Health
F0658
Ensure services provided by the nursing facility meet professional standards of quality.
D
2023-05-23
2023-04-11
Health
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
D
2023-05-23
2023-04-11
Health
F0686
Provide appropriate pressure ulcer care and prevent new ulcers from developing.
E
2023-05-23
2023-04-11
Health
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
G
2023-05-23
2023-04-11
Health
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
D
2023-05-23
2020-03-12
Health
F0580
Immediately tell the resident, the resident's doctor, and a family member of situations (injury/decline/room, etc.) that affect the resident.
D
2020-04-27
2020-03-12
Health
F0609
Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities.
D
2020-04-27
2020-03-12
Health
F0610
Respond appropriately to all alleged violations.
D
2020-04-27
2020-03-12
Health
F0686
Provide appropriate pressure ulcer care and prevent new ulcers from developing.
D
2020-04-27
2020-03-12
Health
F0695
Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed.
D
2020-04-27
2020-03-12
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
C
2020-04-27
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
36
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
CEDAR HILL CAPITAL ASSOCIATES LLC
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
28%
2024-08-01
current
pecos_ownership
JUNIPER CAPITAL ASSOCIATES LLC
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
20%
2024-08-01
current
pecos_ownership
OAK MANAGEMENT CAPITAL LLC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
20%
2024-08-01
current
pecos_ownership
YSRO TRUST
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
20%
2024-08-01
current
pecos_ownership
ILANA OSTREICHER FAMILY TRUST
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
14%
2024-08-01
current
pecos_ownership
MARC EPHRAM OSTREICHER FAMILY TRUST
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
14%
2024-08-01
current
pecos_ownership
DAVID OSTREICHER FAMILY TRUST
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-08-01
current
pecos_ownership
GILMARTIN, THOMAS
DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2024-08-01
current
pecos_ownership
HARRIS, BRIAN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-08-01
current
pecos_ownership
HARRIS, BRIAN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-03-01
current
pecos_ownership
LAGUARDIA, RALPH
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-08-01
current
pecos_ownership
LOPIANSKY, REBECCA
INDIVIDUAL IS AN OWNER, PARTNER OR TRUSTEE OF ANY ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-06-17
current
pecos_ownership
MANSFIELD ACQUISITION REALTY LLC
5% OR GREATER SECURITY INTEREST
—
2024-08-01
current
pecos_ownership
MICHELLE OSTREICHER FAMILY TRUST
5% OR GREATER SECURITY INTEREST
—
2024-08-01
current
pecos_ownership
NATIONAL HEALTH CARE ASSOCIATES INC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-08-01
current
pecos_ownership
OSTREICHER, DAVID
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2024-08-01
current
pecos_ownership
OSTREICHER, ILANA
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-08-01
current
pecos_ownership
OSTREICHER, MARC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-08-01
current
pecos_ownership
OSTREICHER, MARVIN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-08-01
current
pecos_ownership
OSTREICHER, MICHELLE
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2024-08-01
current
pecos_ownership
PREFERRED THERAPY SOLUTIONS LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-08-01
current
pecos_ownership
PROCARE LTC HOLDING LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-08-01
current
pecos_ownership
SHAYNA STEG FAMILY TRUST
5% OR GREATER SECURITY INTEREST
—
2024-08-01
current
pecos_ownership
STEG, SHAYNA
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2024-08-01
current
pecos_ownership
STEG, YITZCHOK
INDIVIDUAL IS AN OWNER, PARTNER OR TRUSTEE OF ANY ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-06-10
current
pecos_ownership
YITZCHOK STEG FAMILY TRUST
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-08-01
current
pecos_ownership
MARVIN OSTREICHER
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
20%
2024-08-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MARC OSTREICHER
5% OR GREATER SECURITY INTEREST
14%
2024-08-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DAVID OSTREICHER
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
10%
2024-08-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ILANA OSTREICHER
5% OR GREATER SECURITY INTEREST
10%
2024-08-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MICHELLE OSTREICHER
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
10%
2024-08-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SHAYNA STEG
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
10%
2024-08-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
THOMAS GILMARTIN
DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
5%
2024-08-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
BRIAN HARRIS
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-08-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
BRIAN HARRIS
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-03-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
RALPH LAGUARDIA
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-08-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
5
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-09-30
$412,465
$2,201
—
$64,044
$133,392
9
—
2023-09-30
$197,664
—
—
—
—
3
—
2022-09-30
$198,285
—
—
—
—
3
—
2021-09-30
$127,376
—
—
—
—
3
—
2020-09-30
$160,426
—
—
—
—
4
—
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
30
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 09110
acs median gross
0
$1,036
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 09110
acs median gross
1
$1,183
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 09110
acs median gross
2
$1,532
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 09110
acs median gross
3
$1,594
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 09110
acs median gross
4
$1,851
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 09110
acs median gross
5
$2,536
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 09110
acs median gross
$1,411
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 09110
acs recent mover gross
$1,678
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 06268
acs median gross
0
$1,747
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 06268
acs median gross
1
$1,207
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 06268
acs median gross
2
$1,674
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 06268
acs median gross
3
$1,407
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 06268
acs median gross
4
$1,656
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 06268
acs median gross
$1,600
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 06268
acs recent mover gross
$1,730
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 06268
payment standard 110
0
$1,496
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 06268
payment standard 90
0
$1,224
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 06268
safmr
0
$1,360
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 06268
payment standard 110
1
$1,716
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 06268
payment standard 90
1
$1,404
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 06268
safmr
1
$1,560
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 06268
payment standard 110
2
$2,167
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 06268
payment standard 90
2
$1,773
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 06268
safmr
2
$1,970
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 06268
payment standard 110
3
$2,596
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 06268
payment standard 90
3
$2,124
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 06268
safmr
3
$2,360
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 06268
payment standard 110
4
$2,948
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 06268
payment standard 90
4
$2,412
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 06268
safmr
4
$2,680
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.