Reads as: riskier than 85.0% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
NJ median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
3.08
3.31
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.17
0.35
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
2.88
3.21
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.15
3.37
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
105.1
3.08
0.17
0.87
2.03
2.88
0.0%
2025Q3
92
104.4
2.87
0.28
0.68
1.90
2.53
0.0%
2025Q2
91
102.2
2.76
0.27
0.77
1.72
2.49
0.0%
2025Q1
90
101.7
2.82
0.26
0.75
1.81
2.56
0.0%
2024Q4
92
102.9
2.76
0.26
0.94
1.57
2.65
0.0%
2024Q3
92
105.3
2.63
0.28
0.98
1.37
2.55
0.0%
2024Q2
91
105.2
3.21
0.53
1.00
1.67
2.81
0.0%
2024Q1
91
104.1
3.07
0.40
1.06
1.61
2.78
0.0%
2023Q4
92
104.4
3.17
0.45
1.06
1.66
2.98
0.0%
2023Q3
92
104.0
3.13
0.49
0.90
1.73
2.91
0.0%
2023Q2
91
105.1
2.87
0.45
0.79
1.64
2.70
0.0%
2023Q1
90
101.7
2.90
0.44
0.71
1.75
2.72
0.0%
2022Q4
92
99.7
2.95
0.46
0.70
1.79
2.80
0.0%
2022Q3
92
101.1
2.94
0.53
0.75
1.66
2.73
0.0%
2022Q2
91
83.7
3.32
0.56
0.95
1.82
2.99
0.0%
2022Q1
90
78.9
3.30
0.66
0.75
1.90
2.96
0.0%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights.
D
2024-12-27
2024-12-05
Health
F0552
Ensure that residents are fully informed and understand their health status, care and treatments.
D
2024-12-27
2024-12-05
Health
F0568
Properly hold, secure, and manage each resident's personal money which is deposited with the nursing home.
D
2024-12-27
2024-12-05
Health
F0578
Honor the resident's right to request, refuse, and/or discontinue treatment, to participate in or refuse to participate in experimental research, and to formulate an advance directive.
K
2024-12-06
2024-12-05
Health · complaint
F0609
Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities.
D
2024-12-27
2024-12-05
Health · complaint
F0610
Respond appropriately to all alleged violations.
D
2024-12-27
2024-12-05
Health
F0645
PASARR screening for Mental disorders or Intellectual Disabilities
D
2024-12-27
2024-12-05
Health
F0657
Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals.
E
2024-12-27
2024-12-05
Health
F0686
Provide appropriate pressure ulcer care and prevent new ulcers from developing.
E
2024-12-27
2024-12-05
Health · complaint
F0690
Provide appropriate care for residents who are continent or incontinent of bowel/bladder, appropriate catheter care, and appropriate care to prevent urinary tract infections.
D
2024-12-27
2024-12-05
Health
F0695
Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed.
D
2024-12-27
2024-12-05
Health
F0700
Try different approaches before using a bed rail. If a bed rail is needed, the facility must (1) assess a resident for safety risk; (2) review these risks and benefits with the resident/representative; (3) get informed consent; and (4) Correctly install and maintain the bed rail.
D
2024-12-27
2024-12-05
Health
F0835
Administer the facility in a manner that enables it to use its resources effectively and efficiently.
K
2024-12-06
2024-12-05
Health
F0865
Have a plan that describes the process for conducting QAPI and QAA activities.
F
2024-12-27
2022-08-18
Health
F0578
Honor the resident's right to request, refuse, and/or discontinue treatment, to participate in or refuse to participate in experimental research, and to formulate an advance directive.
D
2022-09-30
2022-08-18
Health
F0580
Immediately tell the resident, the resident's doctor, and a family member of situations (injury/decline/room, etc.) that affect the resident.
D
2022-09-30
2022-08-18
Health
F0584
Honor the resident's right to a safe, clean, comfortable and homelike environment, including but not limited to receiving treatment and supports for daily living safely.
D
2022-09-30
2022-08-18
Health
F0641
Ensure each resident receives an accurate assessment.
D
2022-09-30
2022-08-18
Health
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
D
2022-09-30
2022-08-18
Health
F0657
Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals.
D
2022-09-30
2022-08-18
Health
F0690
Provide appropriate care for residents who are continent or incontinent of bowel/bladder, appropriate catheter care, and appropriate care to prevent urinary tract infections.
D
2022-09-30
2022-08-18
Health
F0692
Provide enough food/fluids to maintain a resident's health.
G
2022-09-30
2022-08-18
Health
F0842
Safeguard resident-identifiable information and/or maintain medical records on each resident that are in accordance with accepted professional standards.
D
2022-09-30
2022-08-18
Health
F0883
Develop and implement policies and procedures for flu and pneumonia vaccinations.
D
2022-09-30
2022-08-18
Health
F0909
Regularly inspect all bed frames, mattresses, and bed rails (if any) for safety; and all bed rails and mattresses must attach safely to the bed frame.
D
2022-09-30
2020-02-11
Health
F0658
Ensure services provided by the nursing facility meet professional standards of quality.
E
2020-02-21
2020-02-11
Health
F0756
Ensure a licensed pharmacist perform a monthly drug regimen review, including the medical chart, following irregularity reporting guidelines in developed policies and procedures.
E
2020-02-21
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
15
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
CHESTNUT HILL HOLDCO LLC
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2021-04-30
current
pecos_ownership
CHESTNUT HILL PROPERTY LLC
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
100%
2024-01-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
CHESTNUT HILL PROPERTY LLC
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
100%
2023-01-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
EEF CAPITAL LLC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2021-04-30
current
pecos_ownership
PC CHESTNUT HILL HOLDCO LLC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2021-04-30
current
pecos_ownership
SCHLAFF, BENNY
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2021-04-30
current
pecos_ownership
SCHLAFF, NACHUM
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2021-04-30
current
pecos_ownership
SCHWARTZ, HERSHEL
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2021-04-30
current
pecos_ownership
STEIN, SHALOM
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2021-04-30
current
pecos_ownership
CHESTNUT HILL PROPERTY LLC
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
100%
2022-01-01
ended 2022-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
CHESTNUT HILL PROPERTY LLC
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
100%
2021-04-30
ended 2021-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
SHALOM STEIN
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
60%
2021-04-30
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
BENNY SCHLAFF
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
20%
2021-04-30
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
NACHUM SCHLAFF
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
20%
2021-04-30
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
HERSHEL SCHWARTZ
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2021-04-30
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
6
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-12-31
$2,293,660
—
—
—
—
2
propco
2023-12-31
$2,651,881
—
—
—
—
2
propco
2022-12-31
$1,735,256
$1,735,256
—
—
—
1
propco
2021-12-31
$999,738
$999,738
—
—
—
1
propco
2021-04-29
$15,000
—
—
—
—
0
—
2020-12-31
$466,320
—
—
—
—
0
—
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
1
Close date
Price
Buyer
Seller
Evidence
2021-04-30
—
COMPLETE CARE AT CHESTNUT HILL LLC
CHESTNUT HILL CONVALESCENT & REHABILITATION CENTER
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
36
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 34031
acs median gross
0
$1,057
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 34031
fmr
0
$1,778
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 34031
acs median gross
1
$1,362
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 34031
fmr
1
$2,024
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 34031
acs median gross
2
$1,663
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 34031
fmr
2
$2,324
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 34031
acs median gross
3
$1,869
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 34031
fmr
3
$2,835
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 34031
acs median gross
4
$2,191
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 34031
fmr
4
$3,618
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 34031
acs median gross
5
$2,154
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 34031
acs median gross
$1,621
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 34031
acs recent mover gross
$1,888
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 07055
acs median gross
0
$1,174
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 07055
acs median gross
1
$1,193
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 07055
acs median gross
2
$1,507
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 07055
acs median gross
3
$1,786
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 07055
acs median gross
4
$2,141
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 07055
acs median gross
5
$1,156
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 07055
acs median gross
$1,465
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 07055
acs recent mover gross
$1,541
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 07055
payment standard 110
0
$1,595
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 07055
payment standard 90
0
$1,305
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 07055
safmr
0
$1,450
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 07055
payment standard 110
1
$1,815
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 07055
payment standard 90
1
$1,485
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 07055
safmr
1
$1,650
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 07055
payment standard 110
2
$2,079
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 07055
payment standard 90
2
$1,701
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 07055
safmr
2
$1,890
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 07055
payment standard 110
3
$2,541
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 07055
payment standard 90
3
$2,079
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 07055
safmr
3
$2,310
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 07055
payment standard 110
4
$3,234
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 07055
payment standard 90
4
$2,646
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 07055
safmr
4
$2,940
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.