Reads as: riskier than 85.4% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
3
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
9 chains
SCHWARTZ MARK
40 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
8 chains
STERN ARYEH
29 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
8 chains
STERN SAMUEL
14 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
NJ median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
3.67
3.31
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.16
0.35
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
3.69
3.21
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.67
3.37
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
112.0
3.67
0.16
1.10
2.41
3.69
0.0%
2025Q3
92
112.0
3.72
0.22
1.06
2.44
3.62
0.0%
2025Q2
91
110.5
3.70
0.21
1.05
2.43
3.65
0.0%
2025Q1
90
114.5
3.28
0.19
0.96
2.12
3.29
0.0%
2024Q4
92
115.9
2.79
0.21
0.53
2.05
2.69
0.0%
2024Q3
92
114.4
2.75
0.21
0.49
2.04
2.73
0.0%
2024Q2
91
109.4
2.92
0.29
0.49
2.15
2.91
0.0%
2024Q1
91
104.4
2.94
0.25
0.46
2.23
2.77
0.0%
2023Q4
92
100.3
2.80
0.15
0.48
2.17
2.70
0.2%
2023Q3
92
102.2
2.54
0.18
0.37
1.98
2.40
0.0%
2023Q2
91
96.5
2.53
0.09
0.42
2.03
2.29
3.5%
2023Q1
90
100.1
2.58
0.15
0.71
1.72
2.40
1.3%
2022Q4
92
99.2
3.11
0.30
1.05
1.76
2.98
0.0%
2022Q3
92
103.2
3.05
0.38
0.94
1.73
2.80
0.0%
2022Q2
91
99.9
3.12
0.34
1.00
1.78
2.95
0.0%
2022Q1
90
103.9
3.29
0.28
1.01
1.99
3.14
0.0%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Safeguard resident-identifiable information and/or maintain medical records on each resident that are in accordance with accepted professional standards.
D
2026-05-02
2025-11-07
Health · complaint
F0659
Provide care by qualified persons according to each resident's written plan of care.
D
2026-01-02
2025-09-23
Health · complaint
F0600
Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody.
J
2025-09-24
2025-07-24
Health
F0645
PASARR screening for Mental disorders or Intellectual Disabilities
D
2025-09-15
2024-01-26
Health · complaint
F0558
Reasonably accommodate the needs and preferences of each resident.
D
2024-03-04
2024-01-26
Health
F0641
Ensure each resident receives an accurate assessment.
D
2024-03-04
2024-01-26
Health
F0658
Ensure services provided by the nursing facility meet professional standards of quality.
D
2024-03-04
2024-01-26
Health · complaint
F0677
Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable.
E
2024-03-04
2024-01-26
Health · complaint
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
D
2024-03-04
2024-01-26
Health · complaint
F0690
Provide appropriate care for residents who are continent or incontinent of bowel/bladder, appropriate catheter care, and appropriate care to prevent urinary tract infections.
D
2024-03-04
2024-01-26
Health
F0695
Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed.
D
2024-03-04
2024-01-26
Health
F0697
Provide safe, appropriate pain management for a resident who requires such services.
D
2024-03-04
2024-01-26
Health · complaint
F0725
Provide enough nursing staff every day to meet the needs of every resident; and have a licensed nurse in charge on each shift.
E
2024-03-04
2024-01-26
Health
F0755
Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist.
E
2024-03-04
2024-01-26
Health
F0759
Ensure medication error rates are not 5 percent or greater.
D
2024-03-04
2024-01-26
Health
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
E
2024-03-04
2024-01-26
Health
F0804
Ensure food and drink is palatable, attractive, and at a safe and appetizing temperature.
E
2024-03-04
2024-01-26
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
F
2024-03-04
2024-01-26
Health
F0836
Ensure the facility is licensed under applicable State and local law and operates and provides services in compliance with all applicable Federal, State, and local laws, regulations, and codes, and with accepted professional standards.
C
2024-03-04
2024-01-26
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2024-03-04
2021-09-17
Health
F0609
Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities.
F
2021-10-18
2021-09-17
Health
F0610
Respond appropriately to all alleged violations.
D
2021-10-18
2021-09-17
Health
F0658
Ensure services provided by the nursing facility meet professional standards of quality.
D
2021-10-18
2021-09-17
Health
F0755
Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist.
D
2021-10-18
2021-09-17
Health
F0835
Administer the facility in a manner that enables it to use its resources effectively and efficiently.
F
2021-10-18
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
14
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
1086 DUMONT CIRCLE HOLDCO LLC
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2024-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
1086 DUMONT CIRCLE HOLDCO LLC
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
95%
2023-01-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
HCR MANOR CARE SERVICES LLC
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
5%
2023-01-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
1086 DUMONT CIRCLE HOLDCO LLC
—
—
2024-01-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
IACONA, JUSTIN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
PECORA, ANDREW
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
SCHWARTZ, MARK
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
STERN, ARYEH
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2024-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
STERN, SAMUEL
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
ARYEH STERN
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
95%
2024-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MARK SCHWARTZ
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
95%
2024-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ANDREW PECORA
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JUSTIN IACONA
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SAMUEL STERN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
5
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-12-31
$3,117,384
$2,211,220
—
$756,996
—
5
propco
2023-12-31
$2,652,082
$1,967,177
$28,227
$502,107
—
6
propco
2022-12-31
$429,282
—
$429,282
—
—
2
—
2021-12-31
$430,412
—
$430,412
—
—
2
—
2020-12-31
$437,819
—
$437,819
—
—
2
—
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
34
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 34007
acs median gross
0
$1,114
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 34007
fmr
0
$1,397
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 34007
acs median gross
1
$1,177
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 34007
fmr
1
$1,520
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 34007
acs median gross
2
$1,499
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 34007
fmr
2
$1,810
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 34007
acs median gross
3
$1,763
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 34007
fmr
3
$2,170
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 34007
acs median gross
4
$1,802
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 34007
fmr
4
$2,423
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 34007
acs median gross
5
$1,981
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 34007
acs median gross
$1,402
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 34007
acs recent mover gross
$1,567
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 08043
acs median gross
0
$1,455
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 08043
acs median gross
1
$1,678
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 08043
acs median gross
2
$1,824
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 08043
acs median gross
3
$2,238
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 08043
acs median gross
$1,754
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 08043
acs recent mover gross
$1,956
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 08043
payment standard 110
0
$1,892
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 08043
payment standard 90
0
$1,548
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 08043
safmr
0
$1,720
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 08043
payment standard 110
1
$2,057
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 08043
payment standard 90
1
$1,683
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 08043
safmr
1
$1,870
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 08043
payment standard 110
2
$2,453
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 08043
payment standard 90
2
$2,007
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 08043
safmr
2
$2,230
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 08043
payment standard 110
3
$2,937
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 08043
payment standard 90
3
$2,403
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 08043
safmr
3
$2,670
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 08043
payment standard 110
4
$3,289
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 08043
payment standard 90
4
$2,691
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 08043
safmr
4
$2,990
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.