Composite
24.0 / 100 percentile
| Component | Percentile | Raw | Weight | Weight share | Contribution | Counts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| regulatory risk | 69.8 | 64.7 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 16.11 | in index |
| staffing risk | 80.6 | 80.6 | 0.25 | 0.1923 | 15.50 | in index |
| billing conduct | 17.8 | 22.2 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 4.11 | in index |
| chow risk | 16.2 | 15.8 | 0.15 | 0.1154 | 1.87 | in index |
| financial risk | 2.2 | 9.1 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 0.51 | in index |
| Score type | Score | Grade | Model | Status | Registry model notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| billing conduct | 22.1 | A | v0.1-pacpuf-snf | default · in composite | R22. PAC PUF SNF 2023. PDPM coding intensity vs acuity, stay length, charge markup. |
| chow risk | 25.0 | B | v0.1-pos | default · in composite | Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure. |
| chow risk | 6.7 | A | v0.6 | default · in composite | |
| financial risk | 9.1 | A | v0.5 | default · in composite | R18. |
| p adverse action 12m | 0.0 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite. |
| p chow 12m | 4.3 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite. |
| regulatory risk | 64.7 | C | v0.3 | default · in composite | Deficiency-based, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.5-pos. |
| staffing risk | 80.6 | F | v0.3 | default · in composite | Cost-report staffing, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.4-pos, which covers ICF/IID from POS. |
| financial risk | 61.6 | C | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 41.6 | B | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 28.5 | B | v0.3 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 14.6 | A | v0.4 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 64.5 | C | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 64.5 | C | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 80.6 | F | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 80.6 | F | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| For-profit ownership | 1.00 | +0.69 | |
| Occupancy | 0.92 | -0.64 | |
| Never sold on record | 1.00 | +0.62 | |
| Current owner tenure (years) | 25.00 | +0.57 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.42 | |
| Chain size (log) | 3.87 | +0.42 | |
| Ownership changes, last 5 years | 0.00 | +0.20 | |
| Deficiencies, last 12 months | 1.00 | -0.15 |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deficiencies, last 12 months | 1.00 | +1.24 | |
| Chain size (log) | 3.87 | -1.05 | |
| Occupancy | 0.92 | -0.72 | |
| For-profit ownership | 1.00 | -0.69 | |
| Fine amount, 12m (log) | 10.15 | -0.56 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.39 | |
| Total nurse staffing (HPRD) | 2.78 | +0.18 | |
| Never sold on record | 1.00 | +0.12 |
| 2025Q4 HPRD | This facility | NC median | National median | National p25–p75 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total nurse | 2.78 | 3.08 | 3.28 | 2.90–3.77 |
| RN | 0.34 | 0.30 | 0.39 | 0.25–0.58 |
| Weekend total | 2.61 | 2.93 | 3.11 | — |
| Weekday total | 2.85 | 3.14 | 3.35 | — |
| Quarter | Days | Avg census | Total HPRD | RN | LPN | CNA | Weekend | Contract % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025Q4 | 92 | 75.4 | 2.78 | 0.34 | 0.59 | 1.86 | 2.61 | 0.0% |
| 2025Q3 | 92 | 75.3 | 3.01 | 0.43 | 0.52 | 2.06 | 2.79 | 0.6% |
| 2025Q2 | 91 | 74.4 | 2.94 | 0.42 | 0.49 | 2.04 | 2.74 | 1.5% |
| 2025Q1 | 90 | 75.5 | 2.75 | 0.21 | 0.60 | 1.94 | 2.60 | 7.4% |
| 2024Q4 | 92 | 76.6 | 2.62 | 0.27 | 0.54 | 1.80 | 2.57 | 14.6% |
| 2024Q3 | 92 | 75.6 | 2.55 | 0.26 | 0.52 | 1.77 | 2.50 | 15.1% |
| 2024Q2 | 91 | 75.5 | 2.79 | 0.35 | 0.48 | 1.96 | 2.62 | 4.2% |
| 2024Q1 | 91 | 75.5 | 2.67 | 0.37 | 0.51 | 1.80 | 2.67 | 8.7% |
| 2023Q4 | 92 | 74.5 | 2.63 | 0.40 | 0.41 | 1.82 | 2.65 | 19.8% |
| 2023Q3 | 92 | 76.2 | 2.69 | 0.40 | 0.42 | 1.87 | 2.67 | 19.7% |
| 2023Q2 | 91 | 75.8 | 2.47 | 0.34 | 0.54 | 1.59 | 2.46 | 3.5% |
| 2023Q1 | 90 | 77.2 | 2.63 | 0.34 | 0.50 | 1.79 | 2.51 | 0.0% |
| 2022Q4 | 92 | 77.2 | 2.50 | 0.39 | 0.56 | 1.54 | 2.20 | 2.4% |
| 2022Q3 | 92 | 76.3 | 1.66 | 0.43 | 0.46 | 0.76 | 1.42 | 3.8% |
| 2022Q2 | 91 | 76.9 | 1.55 | 0.44 | 0.49 | 0.62 | 1.47 | 0.0% |
| 2022Q1 | 90 | 76.3 | 1.52 | 0.37 | 0.52 | 0.63 | 1.55 | 0.0% |
| Date | Type | Fine | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-02 | Fine | $25,495 | CMS provider data |
| Survey | Type | Tag | Deficiency | Scope | Corrected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-02 | Health · complaint | F0678 | Provide basic life support, including CPR, prior to the arrival of emergency medical personnel , subject to physician orders and the resident’s advance directives. | J | 2026-05-12 |
| 2025-02-06 | Health · complaint | F0584 | Honor the resident's right to a safe, clean, comfortable and homelike environment, including but not limited to receiving treatment and supports for daily living safely. | D | 2025-03-06 |
| 2025-02-06 | Health · complaint | F0602 | Protect each resident from the wrongful use of the resident's belongings or money. | D | 2024-05-01 |
| 2025-02-06 | Health | F0641 | Ensure each resident receives an accurate assessment. | D | 2025-03-06 |
| 2025-02-06 | Health · complaint | F0658 | Ensure services provided by the nursing facility meet professional standards of quality. | D | 2025-03-06 |
| 2025-02-06 | Health | F0688 | Provide appropriate care for a resident to maintain and/or improve range of motion (ROM), limited ROM and/or mobility, unless a decline is for a medical reason. | D | 2025-03-06 |
| 2025-02-06 | Health · complaint | F0695 | Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed. | D | 2025-03-06 |
| 2025-02-06 | Health · complaint | F0761 | Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs. | D | 2025-03-06 |
| 2025-02-06 | Health · complaint | F0842 | Safeguard resident-identifiable information and/or maintain medical records on each resident that are in accordance with accepted professional standards. | B | 2025-03-06 |
| 2023-11-16 | Health | F0553 | Allow resident to participate in the development and implementation of his or her person-centered plan of care. | E | 2023-12-22 |
| 2023-11-16 | Health | F0578 | Honor the resident's right to request, refuse, and/or discontinue treatment, to participate in or refuse to participate in experimental research, and to formulate an advance directive. | D | 2023-12-22 |
| 2023-11-16 | Health | F0641 | Ensure each resident receives an accurate assessment. | B | 2023-12-22 |
| 2023-11-16 | Health | F0656 | Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured. | D | 2023-12-22 |
| 2023-11-16 | Health · complaint | F0677 | Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable. | D | 2023-12-22 |
| 2023-11-16 | Health | F0758 | Implement gradual dose reductions(GDR) and non-pharmacological interventions, unless contraindicated, prior to initiating or instead of continuing psychotropic medication; and PRN orders for psychotropic medications are only used when the medication is necessary and PRN use is limited. | D | 2023-12-22 |
| 2023-11-16 | Health · complaint | F0759 | Ensure medication error rates are not 5 percent or greater. | D | 2023-12-22 |
| 2023-11-16 | Health | F0761 | Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs. | E | 2023-12-22 |
| 2023-11-16 | Health | F0867 | Set up an ongoing quality assessment and assurance group to review quality deficiencies and develop corrective plans of action. | D | 2023-12-22 |
| 2022-08-25 | Health | F0550 | Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights. | D | 2022-10-13 |
| 2022-08-25 | Health | F0554 | Allow residents to self-administer drugs if determined clinically appropriate. | D | 2022-10-13 |
| 2022-08-25 | Health | F0565 | Honor the resident's right to organize and participate in resident/family groups in the facility. | D | 2022-10-13 |
| 2022-08-25 | Health | F0578 | Honor the resident's right to request, refuse, and/or discontinue treatment, to participate in or refuse to participate in experimental research, and to formulate an advance directive. | E | 2022-10-13 |
| 2022-08-25 | Health | F0584 | Honor the resident's right to a safe, clean, comfortable and homelike environment, including but not limited to receiving treatment and supports for daily living safely. | E | 2022-10-13 |
| 2022-08-25 | Health | F0641 | Ensure each resident receives an accurate assessment. | D | 2022-11-08 |
| 2022-08-25 | Health | F0656 | Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured. | D | 2022-10-13 |
| 2022-08-25 | Health | F0657 | Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals. | D | 2022-10-13 |
| 2022-08-25 | Health | F0677 | Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable. | D | 2022-09-26 |
| 2022-08-25 | Health | F0688 | Provide appropriate care for a resident to maintain and/or improve range of motion (ROM), limited ROM and/or mobility, unless a decline is for a medical reason. | D | 2022-10-13 |
| 2022-08-25 | Health | F0695 | Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed. | D | 2022-10-13 |
| 2022-08-25 | Health | F0732 | Post nurse staffing information every day. | C | 2022-09-26 |
| 2022-08-25 | Health | F0867 | Set up an ongoing quality assessment and assurance group to review quality deficiencies and develop corrective plans of action. | E | 2022-10-13 |
| 2022-08-25 | Health | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | D | 2022-10-13 |
| Owner | Role | Pct | From | Status | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOICE, GALE | INDIVIDUAL IS AN OWNER, PARTNER OR TRUSTEE OF ANY ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2025-11-24 | current | pecos_ownership |
| BOICE, GALE | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2018-03-05 | current | pecos_ownership |
| EASON, SARAH | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 1993-02-15 | current | pecos_ownership |
| EASON, SARAH | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2025-07-03 | current | pecos_ownership |
| HILL, RAYMOND | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2011-01-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| HILL, ROBERT | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2011-01-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| HILL, STEPHEN | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2011-01-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| JOHNSON, DIANNE | CORPORATE OFFICER | — | 2011-01-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| KRISHNARAJ, RAMESH | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2025-02-17 | current | pecos_ownership |
| PRINCIPLE LONG TERM CARE, INC. | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2011-01-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| PRINCIPLE IT SERVICES, INC. | 5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 50% | 2011-01-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| ROBERT HILL | 5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 21% | 2011-01-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| STEPHEN HILL | 5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 20% | 2011-01-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| RAYMOND HILL | 5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 18% | 2011-01-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| DIANNE JOHNSON | CORPORATE OFFICER | — | 2011-01-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| GALE BOICE | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2018-03-05 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| RAMESH KRISHNARAJ | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2025-02-17 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| SARAH EASON | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2025-07-03 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| SARAH EASON | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 1993-02-15 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| Close | Facility | Price | $/bed | Cap rate | Beds | Buyer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-07-15 | Juniper Gardens Center for Nursing and Rehabilitat | — | — | — | 50 | WILKINSON BLVD OPERATING COMPANY, LLC |
| 2025-07-01 | Warsaw Rehabilitation and Healthcare Center | — | — | — | 100 | WARSAW OPCO LLC |
| 2025-06-01 | Walnut Cove Health and Rehabilitation | — | — | — | 90 | 511 WINDMILL STREET OPCO LLC |
| 2025-06-01 | Wilora Lake Healthcare | — | — | — | 70 | 6001 WILORA LAKE ROAD OPCO LLC |
| 2025-06-01 | Clay County Health and Rehabilitation | — | — | — | 90 | 86 VALLEY HIDEAWAY DRIVE OPCO LLC |
| 2025-06-01 | Emerald Ridge Health and Rehabilitation | — | — | — | 100 | 25 REYNOLDS MOUNTAIN BOULEVARD OPCO LLC |
| 2025-06-01 | Willowbrook Rehabilitation and Care | — | — | — | 76 | 333 EAST LEE AVENUE OPCO LLC |
| 2025-06-01 | Westwood Health and Rehabilitation | — | — | — | 68 | 625 ASHLAND STREET OPCO LLC |
| 2025-06-01 | Hibriten Mountain Nursing and Rehabilitation | — | — | — | 100 | 2030 HARPER AVENUE OPCO LLC |
| 2025-06-01 | Forrest Oakes Healthcare | — | — | — | 60 | 620 HEATHWOOD DRIVE OPCO LLC |
| 2025-06-01 | Cardinal Healthcare and Rehabilitation | — | — | — | 63 | 931 NORTH ASPEN STREET OPCO LLC |
| 2025-06-01 | Valley View Care and Rehabilitation | — | — | — | 76 | 551 KENT STREET OPCO LLC |
| Geo | Kind | BR | Amount | As of | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| county 37147 | acs median gross | 0 | $781 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 37147 | fmr | 0 | $891 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 37147 | acs median gross | 1 | $815 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 37147 | fmr | 1 | $896 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 37147 | acs median gross | 2 | $1,011 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 37147 | fmr | 2 | $1,095 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 37147 | acs median gross | 3 | $1,182 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 37147 | fmr | 3 | $1,465 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 37147 | acs median gross | 4 | $1,465 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 37147 | fmr | 4 | $1,837 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 37147 | acs median gross | 5 | $1,034 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 37147 | acs median gross | $993 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| county 37147 | acs recent mover gross | $1,158 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 28513 | acs median gross | 2 | $770 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 28513 | acs median gross | 3 | $998 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 28513 | acs median gross | $792 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zip 28513 | payment standard 110 | 0 | $880 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 28513 | payment standard 90 | 0 | $720 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 28513 | safmr | 0 | $800 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 28513 | payment standard 110 | 1 | $880 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 28513 | payment standard 90 | 1 | $720 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 28513 | safmr | 1 | $800 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 28513 | payment standard 110 | 2 | $1,089 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 28513 | payment standard 90 | 2 | $891 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 28513 | safmr | 2 | $990 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 28513 | payment standard 110 | 3 | $1,474 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 28513 | payment standard 90 | 3 | $1,206 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 28513 | safmr | 3 | $1,340 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 28513 | payment standard 110 | 4 | $1,826 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 28513 | payment standard 90 | 4 | $1,494 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 28513 | safmr | 4 | $1,660 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |