Reads as: riskier than 30.8% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
NJ median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
4.52
3.31
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.71
0.35
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
4.51
3.21
3.11
—
Weekday total
4.52
3.37
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
37.3
4.52
0.71
1.02
2.78
4.51
0.0%
2025Q3
92
38.4
4.34
0.72
0.95
2.66
4.33
0.0%
2025Q2
91
39.3
4.21
0.58
1.07
2.55
4.20
0.0%
2025Q1
90
38.1
4.32
0.69
1.05
2.58
4.24
0.0%
2024Q4
92
39.3
4.11
0.73
0.98
2.41
4.01
0.0%
2024Q3
92
37.6
4.44
0.79
0.98
2.67
4.34
0.0%
2024Q2
91
38.5
4.41
0.69
1.03
2.68
4.33
0.0%
2024Q1
91
37.6
4.49
0.77
0.99
2.73
4.43
0.0%
2023Q4
92
38.8
4.17
0.80
0.88
2.50
4.19
0.0%
2023Q3
92
37.7
4.39
0.83
0.95
2.61
4.26
0.0%
2023Q2
91
38.4
4.22
0.79
0.94
2.50
4.05
0.0%
2023Q1
90
37.0
4.54
0.85
0.98
2.71
4.49
0.0%
2022Q4
92
36.6
4.43
0.75
1.06
2.61
4.38
0.0%
2022Q3
92
37.4
4.32
0.70
1.03
2.58
4.16
0.0%
2022Q2
91
37.1
4.33
0.66
0.99
2.67
4.08
4.8%
2022Q1
90
36.2
4.25
0.67
0.93
2.65
4.01
0.0%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Ensure services provided by the nursing facility meet professional standards of quality.
D
2026-02-13
2026-01-15
Health
F0695
Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed.
D
2026-02-10
2025-12-23
Health · complaint
F0760
Ensure that residents are free from significant medication errors.
J
2026-01-23
2024-09-12
Health
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
F
2024-10-11
2024-09-12
Health
F0658
Ensure services provided by the nursing facility meet professional standards of quality.
D
2024-10-11
2024-09-12
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
F
2024-10-14
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
64
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
NATIONAL SENIOR COMMUNITIES, INC
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2021-01-14
current
pecos_ownership
BISON, MICHAEL
INDIVIDUAL IS AN OWNER, PARTNER OR TRUSTEE OF ANY ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-04-17
current
pecos_ownership
BROWN, IAN
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2023-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
BROWN, PATRICIA
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2023-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
BROWN, PATRICIA
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2022-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
BUTLER, RICHARD
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2014-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
CLUPPER, KATHERINE
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2024-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
COLINS, MARY
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2017-07-21
current
pecos_ownership
COLINS, MARY
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2019-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
EMBLEY, MARK
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2021-10-27
current
pecos_ownership
ERICKSON SENIOR LIVING LLC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2020-11-23
current
pecos_ownership
ERICKSON SENIOR LIVING LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-03-18
current
pecos_ownership
ERSTAD, EILEEN
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2018-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
GANTERT, NEAL
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2018-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
HALL, JOHN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2017-07-21
current
pecos_ownership
JACQUE, ZINA
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2018-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
LEONARD, MONTY
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2022-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
MOLLEN, DAVID
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2024-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
MONTAGNI, ADRIANA
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2021-08-22
current
pecos_ownership
MOSCATO, MARY
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2024-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
OAK INVESTMENT TRUST
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
OAK INVESTMENT TRUST II
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
PAULK, PAMELA
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2022-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
POMERANZ, WILLIAM
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2025-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
REEL, STEPHANIE
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2018-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
RIDLEY, FRED
INDIVIDUAL IS AN OWNER, PARTNER OR TRUSTEE OF ANY ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-04-17
current
pecos_ownership
ROSKIEWICZ, MICHAEL
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2019-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
SAWICKI, SCOTT
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2024-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
SHARP, RUSSEL
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2023-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
SONES, RANDALL
INDIVIDUAL IS AN OWNER, PARTNER OR TRUSTEE OF ANY ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-04-17
current
pecos_ownership
SRIVASTAV, SUSHMITA
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2019-01-14
current
pecos_ownership
SRIVASTAV, SUSHMITA
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-03-18
current
pecos_ownership
STINER, PAMELA
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
SWEETSER, CHRISTIAN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2022-03-01
current
pecos_ownership
TYLER, DANIEL
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2025-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
WALLICK, DANIEL
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2025-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
ADRIANA MONTAGNI
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2021-08-22
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CHRISTIAN SWEETSER
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2022-03-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DANIEL TYLER
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2025-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DANIEL WALLICK
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2025-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DAVID MOLLEN
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2024-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
EILEEN ERSTAD
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2018-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
IAN BROWN
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2023-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOHN HALL
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2017-07-21
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
KATHERINE CLUPPER
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2024-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MARK EMBLEY
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2021-10-27
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MARY COLINS
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2019-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MARY COLINS
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2017-07-21
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MARY MOSCATO
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2024-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MICHAEL ROSKIEWICZ
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2019-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MONTY LEONARD
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2022-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
NEAL GANTERT
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2018-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PAMELA PAULK
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2022-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PAMELA STINER
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PATRICIA BROWN
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2023-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PATRICIA BROWN
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2022-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
RICHARD BUTLER
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2014-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
RUSSEL SHARP
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2023-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SCOTT SAWICKI
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2024-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
STEPHANIE REEL
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2018-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SUSHMITA SRIVASTAV
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2019-01-14
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SUSHMITA SRIVASTAV
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-03-18
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
WILLIAM POMERANZ
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2025-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ZINA JACQUE
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2018-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
5
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-12-31
$3,446,921
—
—
—
$403,462
1
—
2023-12-31
$2,964,757
—
—
—
$318,446
1
—
2022-12-31
$2,968,674
—
—
—
$307,900
1
—
2021-12-31
$2,648,867
—
—
—
$307,420
1
—
2020-12-31
$2,186,765
—
—
—
$305,897
1
—
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
33
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 34039
acs median gross
0
$1,283
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 34039
fmr
0
$1,612
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 34039
acs median gross
1
$1,407
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 34039
fmr
1
$1,822
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 34039
acs median gross
2
$1,785
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 34039
fmr
2
$2,205
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 34039
acs median gross
3
$2,085
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 34039
fmr
3
$2,761
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 34039
acs median gross
4
$2,369
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 34039
fmr
4
$3,137
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 34039
acs median gross
5
$2,426
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 34039
acs median gross
$1,730
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 34039
acs recent mover gross
$2,111
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 07974
acs median gross
1
$1,814
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 07974
acs median gross
2
$2,230
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 07974
acs median gross
3
$2,839
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 07974
acs median gross
$1,993
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 07974
acs recent mover gross
$1,909
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 07974
payment standard 110
0
$2,178
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 07974
payment standard 90
0
$1,782
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 07974
safmr
0
$1,980
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 07974
payment standard 110
1
$2,464
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 07974
payment standard 90
1
$2,016
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 07974
safmr
1
$2,240
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 07974
payment standard 110
2
$2,981
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 07974
payment standard 90
2
$2,439
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 07974
safmr
2
$2,710
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 07974
payment standard 110
3
$3,729
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 07974
payment standard 90
3
$3,051
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 07974
safmr
3
$3,390
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 07974
payment standard 110
4
$4,246
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 07974
payment standard 90
4
$3,474
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 07974
safmr
4
$3,860
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.