Reads as: riskier than 64.3% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
2
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+20.3 vs natl
DES CAPITAL LLC
25 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+20.3 vs natl
JRK INVESTMENTS LLC
25 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
NJ median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
3.28
3.31
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.28
0.35
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
3.15
3.21
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.33
3.37
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
136.3
3.28
0.28
0.69
2.31
3.15
23.7%
2025Q3
92
137.5
3.14
0.23
0.71
2.20
2.97
25.3%
2025Q2
91
134.7
3.50
0.28
0.86
2.36
3.29
23.2%
2025Q1
90
147.1
3.26
0.29
0.74
2.23
3.24
27.6%
2024Q4
92
149.6
3.13
0.26
0.70
2.16
3.11
32.4%
2024Q3
92
152.8
3.12
0.29
0.71
2.11
3.19
30.6%
2024Q2
91
155.7
2.47
0.44
0.56
1.47
2.02
0.0%
2024Q1
91
148.9
2.32
0.46
0.66
1.20
1.93
0.0%
2023Q4
92
133.5
3.10
0.53
0.73
1.84
2.85
16.0%
2023Q3
92
123.4
2.57
0.46
0.70
1.41
2.23
0.0%
2023Q2
91
117.9
3.03
0.49
0.88
1.67
2.60
0.7%
2023Q1
90
117.8
2.22
0.39
0.60
1.23
1.85
0.0%
2022Q4
92
118.9
3.02
0.43
0.79
1.80
2.61
3.4%
2022Q3
92
121.6
2.93
0.40
0.83
1.70
2.48
10.0%
2022Q2
91
124.5
2.79
0.44
0.59
1.77
2.55
8.3%
2022Q1
90
120.1
3.06
0.42
0.67
1.97
2.81
3.2%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0
No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
9
D × 6E × 1F × 2
deficiencies by survey year
Survey
Type
Tag
Deficiency
Scope
Corrected
2025-11-26
Health · complaint
F0610
Respond appropriately to all alleged violations.
D
2025-12-18
2025-03-21
Health
F0641
Ensure each resident receives an accurate assessment.
D
2025-04-10
2025-03-21
Health
F0697
Provide safe, appropriate pain management for a resident who requires such services.
D
2025-04-10
2025-03-21
Health · complaint
F0698
Provide safe, appropriate dialysis care/services for a resident who requires such services.
E
2025-04-10
2025-03-21
Health
F0756
Ensure a licensed pharmacist perform a monthly drug regimen review, including the medical chart, following irregularity reporting guidelines in developed policies and procedures.
D
2025-04-10
2025-03-21
Health
F0835
Administer the facility in a manner that enables it to use its resources effectively and efficiently.
F
2025-04-10
2025-03-21
Health
F0837
Establish a governing body that is legally responsible for establishing and implementing policies for managing and operating the facility and appoints a properly licensed administrator responsible for managing the facility.
F
2025-04-10
2020-10-30
Health
F0658
Ensure services provided by the nursing facility meet professional standards of quality.
D
2020-11-13
2020-10-30
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2020-11-13
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
23
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
PC HMH PROPCO HOLDINGS 2 LLC
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
100%
2024-01-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
ALLAM, NAVEEN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-02-10
current
pecos_ownership
CHMURA- SAEZ, PATRICIA
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-11-03
current
pecos_ownership
DES CAPITAL LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-11-03
current
pecos_ownership
GUGLIELMO, MICHAEL
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-11-03
current
pecos_ownership
JRK INVESTMENTS LLC
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2023-11-03
current
pecos_ownership
KLUGMAN, JACOB
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2023-11-03
current
pecos_ownership
PC HMH HOLDINGS 2 LLC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2023-11-03
current
pecos_ownership
PC HMH OPCO HOLDINGS 2 LLC
DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2023-11-03
current
pecos_ownership
PC HMH PROPCO HOLDINGS 2 LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-11-03
current
pecos_ownership
PEACE CAPITAL HOLDINGS LLC (DE)
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-11-03
current
pecos_ownership
SAIDI, ERAN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-01-29
current
pecos_ownership
SMS 2021 TRUST
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2023-11-03
current
pecos_ownership
STEIN, SHALOM
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2023-11-03
current
pecos_ownership
STERNBUCH, DANIEL
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2023-11-03
current
pecos_ownership
WEST CALDWELL PC PROPCO LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-11-03
current
pecos_ownership
DANIEL STERNBUCH
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
5%
2023-11-03
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JACOB KLUGMAN
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
5%
2023-11-03
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SHALOM STEIN
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
4%
2023-11-03
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ERAN SAIDI
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-01-29
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MICHAEL GUGLIELMO
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-11-03
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
NAVEEN ALLAM
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-02-10
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PATRICIA CHMURA- SAEZ
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-11-03
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
5
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-12-31
$3,456,657
—
—
—
—
2
propco
2023-12-31
$779,593
—
—
—
$50,259
7
—
2022-12-31
$1,863,696
—
—
—
$516,344
7
—
2021-12-31
$46,567
—
—
—
—
5
—
2020-12-31
$1,796
—
—
$72
—
4
—
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
35
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 34013
acs median gross
0
$1,241
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 34013
fmr
0
$1,612
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 34013
acs median gross
1
$1,289
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 34013
fmr
1
$1,822
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 34013
acs median gross
2
$1,638
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 34013
fmr
2
$2,205
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 34013
acs median gross
3
$1,864
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 34013
fmr
3
$2,761
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 34013
acs median gross
4
$2,214
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 34013
fmr
4
$3,137
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 34013
acs median gross
5
$2,456
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 34013
acs median gross
$1,531
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 34013
acs recent mover gross
$1,871
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 07006
acs median gross
0
$1,670
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 07006
acs median gross
1
$1,684
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 07006
acs median gross
2
$2,475
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 07006
acs median gross
3
$2,848
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 07006
acs median gross
4
$2,821
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 07006
acs median gross
$1,971
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 07006
acs recent mover gross
$2,761
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 07006
payment standard 110
0
$2,145
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 07006
payment standard 90
0
$1,755
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 07006
safmr
0
$1,950
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 07006
payment standard 110
1
$2,431
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 07006
payment standard 90
1
$1,989
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 07006
safmr
1
$2,210
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 07006
payment standard 110
2
$2,937
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 07006
payment standard 90
2
$2,403
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 07006
safmr
2
$2,670
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 07006
payment standard 110
3
$3,674
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 07006
payment standard 90
3
$3,006
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 07006
safmr
3
$3,340
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 07006
payment standard 110
4
$4,180
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 07006
payment standard 90
4
$3,420
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 07006
safmr
4
$3,800
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.