Reads as: riskier than 99.1% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
3
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+44.7 vs natl
JACOBS HYMAN
8 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+44.1 vs natl
METTERNICH CHRISTOPHER
8 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+43.6 vs natl
JACOBS LIVIA
7 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
15
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
NJ median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
2.28
3.31
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.37
0.35
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
2.25
3.21
3.11
—
Weekday total
2.29
3.37
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
164.1
2.28
0.37
0.65
1.27
2.25
0.0%
2025Q3
92
168.5
2.93
0.34
0.67
1.92
2.84
25.0%
2025Q2
91
154.5
3.26
0.44
0.77
2.04
3.11
19.1%
2025Q1
90
158.8
3.12
0.61
0.75
1.75
2.94
0.0%
2024Q4
92
160.5
2.82
0.65
0.72
1.45
2.58
0.0%
2024Q3
92
166.0
2.64
0.56
0.71
1.37
2.31
0.0%
2024Q2
91
158.8
2.78
0.47
0.83
1.48
2.42
0.0%
2024Q1
91
155.5
2.50
0.40
0.90
1.21
2.25
0.0%
2023Q4
92
157.2
2.23
0.34
0.91
0.98
2.06
0.0%
2023Q2
91
155.0
2.41
0.39
0.83
1.19
2.27
0.0%
2023Q1
90
159.0
2.28
0.35
0.79
1.15
2.17
0.0%
2022Q4
92
161.6
2.53
0.45
0.68
1.40
2.38
0.0%
2022Q3
92
162.0
2.46
0.44
0.62
1.40
2.33
0.0%
2022Q2
91
157.7
2.65
0.42
0.72
1.50
2.47
0.0%
2022Q1
90
164.9
2.70
0.47
0.63
1.60
2.54
0.0%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Reasonably accommodate the needs and preferences of each resident.
D
2026-05-02
2026-04-02
Health
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
D
2026-05-02
2026-04-02
Health
F0692
Provide enough food/fluids to maintain a resident's health.
D
2026-05-02
2026-04-02
Health
F0695
Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed.
D
2026-05-02
2026-04-02
Health · complaint
F0755
Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist.
E
2026-05-02
2026-04-02
Health
F0836
Ensure the facility is licensed under applicable State and local law and operates and provides services in compliance with all applicable Federal, State, and local laws, regulations, and codes, and with accepted professional standards.
D
2026-04-30
2024-11-07
Health
F0550
Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights.
D
2024-12-01
2024-11-07
Health
F0607
Develop and implement policies and procedures to prevent abuse, neglect, and theft.
E
2024-12-06
2024-11-07
Health
F0640
Encode each resident’s assessment data and transmit these data to the State within 7 days of assessment.
D
2024-12-06
2024-11-07
Health
F0641
Ensure each resident receives an accurate assessment.
D
2024-12-06
2024-11-07
Health
F0657
Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals.
D
2024-12-01
2024-11-07
Health
F0658
Ensure services provided by the nursing facility meet professional standards of quality.
E
2024-12-06
2024-11-07
Health
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
D
2024-12-06
2024-11-07
Health
F0695
Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed.
D
2024-12-01
2024-11-07
Health
F0725
Provide enough nursing staff every day to meet the needs of every resident; and have a licensed nurse in charge on each shift.
D
2024-12-01
2024-11-07
Health
F0728
Ensure that nurse aides who have worked more than 4 months, are trained and competent; and nurse aides who have worked less than 4 months are enrolled in appropriate training.
L
2024-12-06
2024-11-07
Health
F0732
Post nurse staffing information every day.
D
2024-12-01
2024-11-07
Health
F0755
Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist.
D
2024-12-01
2024-11-07
Health
F0757
Ensure each resident’s drug regimen must be free from unnecessary drugs.
D
2024-12-06
2024-11-07
Health
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
E
2024-12-06
2024-11-07
Health
F0868
Have the Quality Assessment and Assurance group have the required members and meet at least quarterly
F
2024-12-06
2023-07-14
Health
F0641
Ensure each resident receives an accurate assessment.
D
2023-07-31
2023-07-14
Health
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
D
2023-07-31
2023-07-14
Health
F0688
Provide appropriate care for a resident to maintain and/or improve range of motion (ROM), limited ROM and/or mobility, unless a decline is for a medical reason.
D
2023-07-31
2023-07-14
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
J
2023-08-10
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
13
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
JACOBS, HYMAN
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
95%
2002-01-18
current
pecos_ownership
BUCKINGHAM CANTERBURY PARENT LLC
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
70%
2023-01-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
BUCKINGHAM CANTERBURY PARENT LLC
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
70%
2024-01-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
JACOBS, LIVIA
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
5%
2002-01-18
current
pecos_ownership
DUBLIN, TREVOR
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2018-12-03
current
pecos_ownership
METTERNICH, CHRISTOPHER
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2017-08-17
current
pecos_ownership
TREVOR DUBLIN
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
100%
2018-12-03
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
HYMAN JACOBS
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
95%
2002-01-18
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
BUCK AT NORWOOD REAL
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
70%
2020-01-01
ended 2020-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
BUCK AT NORWOOD REAL
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
70%
2021-01-01
ended 2021-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
BUCK AT NORWOOD REAL
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
70%
2022-01-01
ended 2022-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
LIVIA JACOBS
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
5%
2002-01-18
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CHRISTOPHER METTERNICH
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2017-08-17
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
5
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-12-31
$2,693,720
$968,265
—
—
—
4
propco
2023-12-31
$2,159,988
$971,264
—
—
$46,652
4
propco
2022-12-31
$2,825,300
$1,154,848
—
—
—
5
propco
2021-12-31
$2,505,396
$988,991
—
—
—
5
propco
2020-12-31
$2,651,163
$998,336
—
—
—
5
propco
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
32
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 34003
acs median gross
0
$1,638
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 34003
fmr
0
$1,778
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 34003
acs median gross
1
$1,698
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 34003
fmr
1
$2,024
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 34003
acs median gross
2
$2,014
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 34003
fmr
2
$2,324
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 34003
acs median gross
3
$2,431
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 34003
fmr
3
$2,835
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 34003
acs median gross
4
$3,170
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 34003
fmr
4
$3,618
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 34003
acs median gross
5
$3,501
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 34003
acs median gross
$1,914
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 34003
acs recent mover gross
$2,373
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 07648
acs median gross
1
$1,644
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 07648
acs median gross
2
$1,731
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 07648
acs median gross
3
$3,501
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 07648
acs median gross
$2,094
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 07648
payment standard 110
0
$2,442
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 07648
payment standard 90
0
$1,998
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 07648
safmr
0
$2,220
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 07648
payment standard 110
1
$2,783
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 07648
payment standard 90
1
$2,277
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 07648
safmr
1
$2,530
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 07648
payment standard 110
2
$3,201
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 07648
payment standard 90
2
$2,619
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 07648
safmr
2
$2,910
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 07648
payment standard 110
3
$3,905
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 07648
payment standard 90
3
$3,195
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 07648
safmr
3
$3,550
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 07648
payment standard 110
4
$4,972
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 07648
payment standard 90
4
$4,068
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 07648
safmr
4
$4,520
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.