Reads as: riskier than 62.3% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
1
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
8 chains
HERZKA YISROEL
70 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
NC median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
2.95
3.08
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.31
0.30
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
2.74
2.93
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.03
3.14
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
136.6
2.95
0.31
0.58
2.07
2.74
6.1%
2025Q3
92
127.5
3.01
0.29
0.55
2.17
2.77
2.5%
2025Q2
91
131.7
3.30
0.40
0.58
2.32
2.94
1.5%
2025Q1
90
128.0
3.93
0.58
0.71
2.65
3.56
2.4%
2024Q4
92
129.9
3.76
0.64
0.66
2.46
3.30
2.0%
2024Q3
92
127.6
3.74
0.57
0.73
2.44
3.26
5.0%
2024Q2
91
124.4
3.90
0.63
0.71
2.56
3.47
1.2%
2024Q1
91
131.9
3.66
0.57
0.69
2.40
3.25
3.2%
2023Q4
92
136.1
3.42
0.51
0.72
2.18
3.05
4.3%
2023Q3
92
128.1
3.55
0.54
0.69
2.32
3.16
8.3%
2023Q2
91
131.2
3.39
0.54
0.67
2.18
3.06
15.8%
2023Q1
90
118.6
3.70
0.61
0.80
2.29
3.23
8.1%
2022Q4
92
111.2
3.94
0.67
0.84
2.43
3.46
6.4%
2022Q3
92
115.1
3.79
0.61
0.74
2.44
3.32
1.6%
2022Q2
91
116.3
3.65
0.55
0.74
2.37
3.09
3.9%
2022Q1
90
115.8
3.80
0.57
0.79
2.44
3.19
0.4%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Honor the resident's right to a safe, clean, comfortable and homelike environment, including but not limited to receiving treatment and supports for daily living safely.
E
2026-05-20
2026-04-23
Health · complaint
F0602
Protect each resident from the wrongful use of the resident's belongings or money.
D
2026-05-20
2026-04-23
Health · complaint
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
D
2026-05-20
2026-04-23
Health · complaint
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
D
2026-05-20
2026-04-23
Health · complaint
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
E
2026-05-20
2025-11-04
Health · complaint
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
G
—
2025-09-12
Health · complaint
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
J
—
2025-01-24
Health
F0578
Honor the resident's right to request, refuse, and/or discontinue treatment, to participate in or refuse to participate in experimental research, and to formulate an advance directive.
E
2025-02-10
2025-01-24
Health
F0641
Ensure each resident receives an accurate assessment.
E
2025-02-10
2025-01-24
Health
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
D
2025-02-10
2025-01-24
Health
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
D
2025-02-10
2025-01-24
Health
F0695
Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed.
D
2025-02-10
2025-01-24
Health
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
D
2025-02-10
2024-04-19
Health · complaint
F0600
Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody.
J
2024-05-09
2024-04-19
Health · complaint
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
J
2024-05-09
2023-09-28
Health
F0698
Provide safe, appropriate dialysis care/services for a resident who requires such services.
D
2023-10-20
2022-03-31
Health
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
D
2022-04-18
2022-03-31
Health
F0690
Provide appropriate care for residents who are continent or incontinent of bowel/bladder, appropriate catheter care, and appropriate care to prevent urinary tract infections.
D
2022-04-18
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
45
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
SMITHFIELD SNF REALTY HOLDINGS LLC
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2025-05-01
current
pecos_ownership
SMITHFIELD SNF REALTY PARENT LLC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2025-05-01
current
pecos_ownership
ARNN INVESTMENTS
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
—
2022-10-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
ARNN INVESTMENTS
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
—
2023-10-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
BANKWELL BANK
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2026-02-05
current
pecos_ownership
BANKWELL BANK
5% OR GREATER MORTGAGE INTEREST
—
2025-05-01
current
pecos_ownership
BOYER, JUDITH
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2025-05-01
current
pecos_ownership
CH SMITHFIELD HOLDINGS LLC
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2025-05-01
current
pecos_ownership
CHUBB, LISA
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2026-02-19
current
pecos_ownership
GOODMAN, MENUCHA
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-12-01
current
pecos_ownership
HERZKA, YISROEL
GENERAL PARTNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2025-05-01
current
pecos_ownership
M MELB OPCO LLC
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2025-05-01
current
pecos_ownership
M MELB OPCO TRUST
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2025-05-01
current
pecos_ownership
M MELB PROPCO LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-05-01
current
pecos_ownership
MADISON, ADAM
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-08-31
current
pecos_ownership
MS SMITHFIELD HOLDINGS LLC
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2025-05-01
current
pecos_ownership
MS SMITHFIELD PROPCO HOLDINGS LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-05-01
current
pecos_ownership
ROTBERG, AVROHOM
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2025-05-01
current
pecos_ownership
S MELB OPCO LLC
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2025-05-01
current
pecos_ownership
S MELB OPCO TRUST
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2025-05-01
current
pecos_ownership
S MELB PROPCO TRUST
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-05-01
current
pecos_ownership
SHETH, ANOOP
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2026-02-01
current
pecos_ownership
SMITHFIELD SNF REALTY LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-05-01
current
pecos_ownership
SMITHFIELD SNF REALTY PARENT LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-10-22
current
pecos_ownership
SS SMITHFIELD HOLDINGS LLC
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2025-05-01
current
pecos_ownership
SS SMITHFIELD PROPCO HOLDINGS LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-05-01
current
pecos_ownership
STRAUSS, SUSAN
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2025-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
VENZA CARE ADMIN SERVICES LLC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-08-31
current
pecos_ownership
VENZA CARE ADMIN SERVICES LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2026-02-26
current
pecos_ownership
VENZA CARE CLINICAL CONSULTING LLC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-05-01
current
pecos_ownership
VERTEX FINANCIAL SERVICES LLC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-05-01
current
pecos_ownership
WHITE, LATONYA
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-05-01
current
pecos_ownership
YISROEL HERZKA
GENERAL PARTNERSHIP INTEREST
44%
2025-05-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ADAM MADISON
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-08-31
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ANOOP SHETH
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2026-02-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ARNN INVESTMENT
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
—
2019-10-01
ended 2020-09-30
hcris_a_8_1
ARNN INVESTMENTS
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
—
2021-10-01
ended 2022-09-30
hcris_a_8_1
ARNN INVESTMENTS
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
—
2020-10-01
ended 2021-09-30
hcris_a_8_1
ARNN INVESTMENTS
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
—
2019-10-01
ended 2020-09-30
hcris_a_8_1
AVROHOM ROTBERG
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2025-05-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JUDITH BOYER
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2025-05-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
LATONYA WHITE
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2025-05-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
LISA CHUBB
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2026-02-19
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MENUCHA GOODMAN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-12-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SUSAN STRAUSS
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2025-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
5
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-09-30
$149,377
—
—
—
—
5
propco
2023-09-30
$223,100
—
—
—
—
5
propco
2022-09-30
$226,363
—
—
—
—
5
propco
2021-09-30
$137,488
—
—
—
—
5
propco
2020-09-30
$175,937
—
—
—
—
5
propco
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
34
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 37101
acs median gross
0
$657
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 37101
fmr
0
$1,524
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 37101
acs median gross
1
$613
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 37101
fmr
1
$1,596
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 37101
acs median gross
2
$970
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 37101
fmr
2
$1,750
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 37101
acs median gross
3
$1,354
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 37101
fmr
3
$2,196
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 37101
acs median gross
4
$2,201
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 37101
fmr
4
$2,936
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 37101
acs median gross
5
$2,154
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 37101
acs median gross
$1,146
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 37101
acs recent mover gross
$1,715
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 27577
acs median gross
1
$514
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 27577
acs median gross
2
$959
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 27577
acs median gross
3
$1,018
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 27577
acs median gross
4
$1,441
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 27577
acs median gross
$837
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 27577
acs recent mover gross
$915
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 27577
payment standard 110
0
$1,287
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 27577
payment standard 90
0
$1,053
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 27577
safmr
0
$1,170
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 27577
payment standard 110
1
$1,309
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 27577
payment standard 90
1
$1,071
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 27577
safmr
1
$1,190
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 27577
payment standard 110
2
$1,485
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 27577
payment standard 90
2
$1,215
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 27577
safmr
2
$1,350
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 27577
payment standard 110
3
$1,826
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 27577
payment standard 90
3
$1,494
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 27577
safmr
3
$1,660
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 27577
payment standard 110
4
$2,420
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 27577
payment standard 90
4
$1,980
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 27577
safmr
4
$2,200
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.