Composite
51.0 / 100 percentile
| Component | Percentile | Raw | Weight | Weight share | Contribution | Counts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| regulatory risk | 89.9 | 87.5 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 20.75 | in index |
| staffing risk | 52.9 | 52.9 | 0.25 | 0.1923 | 10.17 | in index |
| financial risk | 41.4 | 40.4 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 9.55 | in index |
| billing conduct | 25.2 | 29.1 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 5.82 | in index |
| chow risk | 21.6 | 20.9 | 0.15 | 0.1154 | 2.49 | in index |
| Kind | Finding | Signal | Subject | First seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| connection | Owner fleet enforcement cluster | 80% fined | WEST NC HOLDINGS LLC | 5 facilities |
| connection | Owner fleet enforcement cluster | 50% fined | ALTER TZVI | 22 facilities |
| Score type | Score | Grade | Model | Status | Registry model notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| billing conduct | 29.1 | B | v0.1-pacpuf-snf | default · in composite | R22. PAC PUF SNF 2023. PDPM coding intensity vs acuity, stay length, charge markup. |
| chow risk | 25.0 | B | v0.1-pos | default · in composite | Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure. |
| chow risk | 16.8 | A | v0.6 | default · in composite | |
| financial risk | 40.4 | B | v0.5 | default · in composite | R18. |
| p adverse action 12m | 0.0 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite. |
| p chow 12m | 0.0 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite. |
| regulatory risk | 87.5 | F | v0.3 | default · in composite | Deficiency-based, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.5-pos. |
| staffing risk | 52.9 | C | v0.3 | default · in composite | Cost-report staffing, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.4-pos, which covers ICF/IID from POS. |
| financial risk | 71.7 | D | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 51.7 | C | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 53.4 | C | v0.3 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 44.1 | B | v0.4 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 87.5 | F | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 87.5 | F | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 52.9 | C | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 52.9 | C | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current owner tenure (years) | 2.16 | -1.64 | |
| Never sold on record | 0.00 | -1.62 | |
| Ownership changes, last 5 years | 1.00 | -0.87 | |
| For-profit ownership | 1.00 | +0.69 | |
| Occupancy | 0.86 | -0.46 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.42 | |
| Contract staffing share | 0.26 | +0.30 | |
| Deficiencies, last 12 months | 9.00 | +0.05 |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| For-profit ownership | 1.00 | -0.69 | |
| Occupancy | 0.86 | -0.45 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.39 | |
| Never sold on record | 0.00 | -0.28 | |
| Current owner tenure (years) | 2.16 | -0.27 | |
| Deficiencies, last 12 months | 9.00 | -0.24 | |
| Ownership changes, last 5 years | 1.00 | +0.23 | |
| Contract staffing share | 0.26 | +0.20 |
| 2025Q4 HPRD | This facility | NC median | National median | National p25–p75 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total nurse | 3.24 | 3.08 | 3.28 | 2.90–3.77 |
| RN | 0.26 | 0.30 | 0.39 | 0.25–0.58 |
| Weekend total | 3.18 | 2.93 | 3.11 | — |
| Weekday total | 3.27 | 3.14 | 3.35 | — |
| Quarter | Days | Avg census | Total HPRD | RN | LPN | CNA | Weekend | Contract % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025Q4 | 92 | 77.1 | 3.24 | 0.26 | 1.07 | 1.92 | 3.18 | 25.5% |
| 2025Q3 | 92 | 80.0 | 3.28 | 0.27 | 1.15 | 1.86 | 3.12 | 24.5% |
| 2025Q2 | 91 | 79.7 | 3.17 | 0.27 | 0.89 | 2.01 | 2.97 | 20.4% |
| 2025Q1 | 90 | 81.0 | 3.17 | 0.20 | 0.95 | 2.01 | 2.91 | 18.0% |
| 2024Q4 | 92 | 82.7 | 3.12 | 0.21 | 0.88 | 2.04 | 2.92 | 19.1% |
| 2024Q3 | 92 | 78.7 | 3.13 | 0.11 | 0.96 | 2.06 | 2.84 | 16.6% |
| 2024Q2 | 91 | 73.5 | 2.96 | 0.20 | 1.05 | 1.70 | 2.85 | 1.6% |
| 2024Q1 | 91 | 69.7 | 3.14 | 0.15 | 1.10 | 1.89 | 3.28 | 0.0% |
| 2023Q4 | 92 | 78.0 | 2.68 | 0.20 | 0.99 | 1.49 | 2.96 | 0.8% |
| 2023Q3 | 92 | 83.0 | 2.95 | 0.28 | 1.03 | 1.64 | 2.81 | 15.3% |
| 2023Q2 | 91 | 80.1 | 3.04 | 0.27 | 1.15 | 1.63 | 2.75 | 16.8% |
| 2023Q1 | 90 | 79.3 | 3.01 | 0.18 | 1.13 | 1.70 | 2.53 | 27.0% |
| 2022Q4 | 92 | 80.5 | 2.74 | 0.05 | 1.01 | 1.68 | 2.18 | 38.7% |
| 2022Q3 | 92 | 76.8 | 2.93 | 0.03 | 0.96 | 1.95 | 2.68 | 48.5% |
| 2022Q2 | 91 | 78.9 | 2.98 | 0.16 | 0.83 | 1.99 | 2.55 | 47.6% |
| 2022Q1 | 90 | 78.5 | 3.16 | 0.13 | 0.83 | 2.21 | 2.86 | 44.8% |
| Date | Type | Fine | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-12-11 | Fine | $94,140 | CMS provider data |
| 2023-12-11 | Payment Denial | — | CMS provider data |
| Survey | Type | Tag | Deficiency | Scope | Corrected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-05 | Health | F0550 | Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights. | D | 2026-05-21 |
| 2026-05-05 | Health | F0658 | Ensure services provided by the nursing facility meet professional standards of quality. | D | 2026-05-21 |
| 2026-05-05 | Health | F0677 | Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable. | D | 2026-05-21 |
| 2026-05-05 | Health | F0684 | Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals. | D | 2026-05-21 |
| 2026-05-05 | Health | F0755 | Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist. | E | 2026-05-21 |
| 2026-05-05 | Health | F0760 | Ensure that residents are free from significant medication errors. | D | 2026-05-21 |
| 2026-05-05 | Health | F0842 | Safeguard resident-identifiable information and/or maintain medical records on each resident that are in accordance with accepted professional standards. | D | 2026-05-21 |
| 2026-05-05 | Health | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | D | 2026-05-21 |
| 2026-05-05 | Health | F0881 | Implement a program that monitors antibiotic use. | F | 2026-05-21 |
| 2025-03-05 | Health | F0561 | Honor the resident's right to and the facility must promote and facilitate resident self-determination through support of resident choice. | D | 2025-04-04 |
| 2025-03-05 | Health | F0580 | Immediately tell the resident, the resident's doctor, and a family member of situations (injury/decline/room, etc.) that affect the resident. | E | 2025-04-04 |
| 2025-03-05 | Health · complaint | F0584 | Honor the resident's right to a safe, clean, comfortable and homelike environment, including but not limited to receiving treatment and supports for daily living safely. | E | 2025-04-04 |
| 2025-03-05 | Health · complaint | F0600 | Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody. | D | 2025-04-04 |
| 2025-03-05 | Health · complaint | F0677 | Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable. | E | 2025-04-04 |
| 2025-03-05 | Health | F0686 | Provide appropriate pressure ulcer care and prevent new ulcers from developing. | D | 2025-04-04 |
| 2025-03-05 | Health · complaint | F0692 | Provide enough food/fluids to maintain a resident's health. | E | 2025-04-04 |
| 2025-03-05 | Health · complaint | F0725 | Provide enough nursing staff every day to meet the needs of every resident; and have a licensed nurse in charge on each shift. | D | 2025-04-04 |
| 2025-03-05 | Health | F0727 | Have a registered nurse on duty 8 hours a day; and select a registered nurse to be the director of nurses on a full time basis. | E | 2025-04-04 |
| 2025-03-05 | Health | F0732 | Post nurse staffing information every day. | B | 2025-04-04 |
| 2025-03-05 | Health | F0756 | Ensure a licensed pharmacist perform a monthly drug regimen review, including the medical chart, following irregularity reporting guidelines in developed policies and procedures. | E | 2025-04-04 |
| 2025-03-05 | Health | F0759 | Ensure medication error rates are not 5 percent or greater. | D | 2025-04-04 |
| 2025-03-05 | Health | F0760 | Ensure that residents are free from significant medication errors. | E | 2025-04-04 |
| 2025-03-05 | Health | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | E | 2025-04-04 |
| 2025-03-05 | Health | F0825 | Provide or get specialized rehabilitative services as required for a resident. | D | 2025-04-04 |
| 2025-03-05 | Health | F0867 | Set up an ongoing quality assessment and assurance group to review quality deficiencies and develop corrective plans of action. | E | 2025-04-04 |
| 2025-03-05 | Health | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | E | 2025-04-04 |
| 2024-03-27 | Health | F0727 | Have a registered nurse on duty 8 hours a day; and select a registered nurse to be the director of nurses on a full time basis. | F | 2024-04-24 |
| 2024-03-27 | Health | F0732 | Post nurse staffing information every day. | C | 2024-04-24 |
| 2024-03-27 | Health · complaint | F0760 | Ensure that residents are free from significant medication errors. | E | 2024-04-24 |
| 2024-03-27 | Health | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | E | 2024-04-24 |
| 2024-03-27 | Health | F0842 | Safeguard resident-identifiable information and/or maintain medical records on each resident that are in accordance with accepted professional standards. | D | 2024-04-24 |
| 2024-03-27 | Health | F0867 | Set up an ongoing quality assessment and assurance group to review quality deficiencies and develop corrective plans of action. | E | 2024-04-24 |
| 2024-01-25 | Health · complaint | F0677 | Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable. | E | 2024-02-15 |
| 2024-01-25 | Health · complaint | F0692 | Provide enough food/fluids to maintain a resident's health. | D | 2024-02-15 |
| 2024-01-25 | Health · complaint | F0867 | Set up an ongoing quality assessment and assurance group to review quality deficiencies and develop corrective plans of action. | E | 2024-02-15 |
| 2023-12-11 | Health · complaint | F0600 | Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody. | J | 2024-01-25 |
| 2023-12-11 | Health · complaint | F0607 | Develop and implement policies and procedures to prevent abuse, neglect, and theft. | J | 2024-01-25 |
| 2023-12-11 | Health · complaint | F0867 | Set up an ongoing quality assessment and assurance group to review quality deficiencies and develop corrective plans of action. | E | 2024-02-15 |
| 2023-06-02 | Health · complaint | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | J | 2023-05-11 |
| Owner | Role | Pct | From | Status | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BRUNSWICK HOLDINGS I LLC | 5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 100% | 2024-06-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| 1070 OLD OCEAN HIGHWAY, LLC | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2024-06-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| ALTER, TZVI | 5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | — | 2024-06-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| LELLOCK, TY | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2025-08-05 | current | pecos_ownership |
| LELLOCK, TY | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2024-06-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| WEST NC HOLDINGS LLC | 5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | — | 2024-06-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| TZVI ALTER | 5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 100% | 2024-06-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| TY LELLOCK | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2025-08-05 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| TY LELLOCK | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2024-06-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| Close date | Price | Buyer | Seller | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-06-01 | — | BRUNSWICK OPERATOR LLC | UNIVERSAL HEALTH CARE BRUNSWICK INC. | chow |
| Close | Facility | Price | $/bed | Cap rate | Beds | Buyer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-07-15 | Juniper Gardens Center for Nursing and Rehabilitat | — | — | — | 50 | WILKINSON BLVD OPERATING COMPANY, LLC |
| 2025-07-01 | Warsaw Rehabilitation and Healthcare Center | — | — | — | 100 | WARSAW OPCO LLC |
| 2025-06-01 | Walnut Cove Health and Rehabilitation | — | — | — | 90 | 511 WINDMILL STREET OPCO LLC |
| 2025-06-01 | Wilora Lake Healthcare | — | — | — | 70 | 6001 WILORA LAKE ROAD OPCO LLC |
| 2025-06-01 | Clay County Health and Rehabilitation | — | — | — | 90 | 86 VALLEY HIDEAWAY DRIVE OPCO LLC |
| 2025-06-01 | Emerald Ridge Health and Rehabilitation | — | — | — | 100 | 25 REYNOLDS MOUNTAIN BOULEVARD OPCO LLC |
| 2025-06-01 | Willowbrook Rehabilitation and Care | — | — | — | 76 | 333 EAST LEE AVENUE OPCO LLC |
| 2025-06-01 | Westwood Health and Rehabilitation | — | — | — | 68 | 625 ASHLAND STREET OPCO LLC |
| 2025-06-01 | Hibriten Mountain Nursing and Rehabilitation | — | — | — | 100 | 2030 HARPER AVENUE OPCO LLC |
| 2025-06-01 | Forrest Oakes Healthcare | — | — | — | 60 | 620 HEATHWOOD DRIVE OPCO LLC |
| 2025-06-01 | Cardinal Healthcare and Rehabilitation | — | — | — | 63 | 931 NORTH ASPEN STREET OPCO LLC |
| 2025-06-01 | Valley View Care and Rehabilitation | — | — | — | 76 | 551 KENT STREET OPCO LLC |
| Geo | Kind | BR | Amount | As of | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| county 37019 | acs median gross | 0 | $1,076 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 37019 | fmr | 0 | $1,242 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 37019 | acs median gross | 1 | $1,186 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 37019 | fmr | 1 | $1,301 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 37019 | acs median gross | 2 | $1,265 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 37019 | fmr | 2 | $1,426 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 37019 | acs median gross | 3 | $1,454 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 37019 | fmr | 3 | $1,983 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 37019 | acs median gross | 4 | $1,712 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 37019 | fmr | 4 | $2,392 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 37019 | acs median gross | 5 | $1,808 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 37019 | acs median gross | $1,351 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| county 37019 | acs recent mover gross | $1,873 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 28422 | acs median gross | 2 | $863 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 28422 | acs median gross | 3 | $1,328 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 28422 | acs median gross | 4 | $2,133 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 28422 | acs median gross | 5 | $1,760 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 28422 | acs median gross | $1,564 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zip 28422 | payment standard 110 | 0 | $1,562 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 28422 | payment standard 90 | 0 | $1,278 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 28422 | safmr | 0 | $1,420 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 28422 | payment standard 110 | 1 | $1,639 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 28422 | payment standard 90 | 1 | $1,341 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 28422 | safmr | 1 | $1,490 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 28422 | payment standard 110 | 2 | $1,793 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 28422 | payment standard 90 | 2 | $1,467 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 28422 | safmr | 2 | $1,630 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 28422 | payment standard 110 | 3 | $2,497 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 28422 | payment standard 90 | 3 | $2,043 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 28422 | safmr | 3 | $2,270 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 28422 | payment standard 110 | 4 | $3,003 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 28422 | payment standard 90 | 4 | $2,457 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 28422 | safmr | 4 | $2,730 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |