Reads as: riskier than 24.0% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
9
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
anomaly
Federal penalty spike
4.3x prior
this facility
2026-07-29
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
12 chains
TRUIST BANK
61 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
7 chains
JERGENSEN JOSHUA
249 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
7 chains
MITCHELL JOHN
264 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
6 chains
MORRIS CHRISTOPHER
18 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
6 chains
THE PROVIDENCE GROUPS LLC
34 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
6 chains
APT FREDERICK
254 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
5 chains
PROVIDENCE ADMINISTRATIVE CONSULTING SERVICES INC
62 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
42% fined
MORRIS CHRISTOPHER
19 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
OR median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
4.44
4.20
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.21
0.41
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
4.17
3.99
3.11
—
Weekday total
4.54
4.27
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
68.9
4.44
0.21
1.02
3.21
4.17
23.4%
2025Q3
92
65.2
4.46
0.20
1.06
3.19
4.14
38.6%
2025Q2
91
60.1
4.66
0.23
1.06
3.37
4.36
35.9%
2025Q1
90
60.1
4.79
0.25
1.09
3.45
4.30
35.1%
2024Q4
92
51.9
5.02
0.27
1.04
3.71
4.66
42.8%
2024Q3
92
42.5
5.13
0.18
1.03
3.92
4.90
33.5%
2024Q2
91
42.8
4.79
0.16
1.02
3.61
4.76
31.4%
2024Q1
91
44.4
4.33
0.18
0.92
3.23
4.34
15.7%
2023Q4
92
39.0
4.45
0.32
0.75
3.39
4.39
16.6%
2023Q3
92
40.3
4.11
0.25
0.75
3.11
3.94
16.3%
2023Q2
91
40.8
4.18
0.23
0.69
3.27
4.01
9.7%
2023Q1
90
43.6
3.82
0.35
0.58
2.89
3.66
8.7%
2022Q4
92
40.9
4.04
0.27
0.65
3.12
4.00
15.2%
2022Q3
92
41.3
4.17
0.34
0.54
3.29
4.00
11.3%
2022Q2
91
42.2
4.06
0.33
0.69
3.04
4.05
1.4%
2022Q1
90
40.3
4.22
0.28
0.93
3.01
3.98
1.2%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
D
2026-04-06
2026-03-18
Health · complaint
F0826
Provide specialized rehabilitative services by qualified personnel, when ordered for a resident by a doctor.
D
2026-04-06
2025-07-24
Health · complaint
F0678
Provide basic life support, including CPR, prior to the arrival of emergency medical personnel , subject to physician orders and the resident’s advance directives.
J
2025-07-12
2025-05-09
Health
F0607
Develop and implement policies and procedures to prevent abuse, neglect, and theft.
E
2025-06-04
2025-05-09
Health
F0773
Provide or obtain laboratory tests/services when ordered and promptly tell the ordering practitioner of the results.
D
2025-06-04
2025-02-04
Health · complaint
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
D
2025-02-21
2024-11-14
Health · complaint
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
J
2024-11-14
2024-01-17
Health · complaint
F0550
Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights.
D
2024-02-20
2024-01-17
Health · complaint
F0584
Honor the resident's right to a safe, clean, comfortable and homelike environment, including but not limited to receiving treatment and supports for daily living safely.
E
2024-02-20
2024-01-17
Health · complaint
F0636
Assess the resident completely in a timely manner when first admitted, and then periodically, at least every 12 months.
E
2024-02-20
2024-01-17
Health · complaint
F0677
Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable.
D
2024-02-20
2024-01-17
Health · complaint
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
D
2024-02-20
2024-01-17
Health · complaint
F0690
Provide appropriate care for residents who are continent or incontinent of bowel/bladder, appropriate catheter care, and appropriate care to prevent urinary tract infections.
D
2024-02-20
2024-01-17
Health · complaint
F0725
Provide enough nursing staff every day to meet the needs of every resident; and have a licensed nurse in charge on each shift.
E
2024-02-20
2024-01-17
Health · complaint
F0730
Observe each nurse aide's job performance and give regular training.
E
2024-02-20
2024-01-17
Health · complaint
F0806
Ensure each resident receives and the facility provides food that accommodates resident allergies, intolerances, and preferences, as well as appealing options.
D
2024-02-20
2024-01-17
Health · complaint
F0813
Have a policy regarding use and storage of foods brought to residents by family and other visitors.
D
2024-02-20
2024-01-17
Health · complaint
F0947
Ensure nurse aides have the skills they need to care for residents, and give nurse aides education in dementia care and abuse prevention.
E
2024-02-20
2022-10-21
Health
F0657
Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals.
D
2022-11-24
2022-10-21
Health
F0658
Ensure services provided by the nursing facility meet professional standards of quality.
D
2022-11-24
2022-10-21
Health
F0661
Ensure necessary information is communicated to the resident, and receiving health care provider at the time of a planned discharge.
D
2022-11-24
2022-10-21
Health
F0676
Ensure residents do not lose the ability to perform activities of daily living unless there is a medical reason.
D
2022-11-24
2022-10-21
Health
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
D
2022-11-24
2022-10-21
Health
F0730
Observe each nurse aide's job performance and give regular training.
E
2022-12-01
2022-10-21
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
F
2022-11-24
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
25
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
PROVIDENCE GROUP INC
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2013-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
APT, FREDERICK
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-05-01
current
pecos_ownership
COLLINS, AMANDA
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-09-01
current
pecos_ownership
JERGENSEN, JOSHUA
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-05-10
current
pecos_ownership
MAY, LUKE
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-05-30
current
pecos_ownership
MAY, LUKE
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-09-01
current
pecos_ownership
MITCHELL, JOHN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-05-10
current
pecos_ownership
MOLALLA 301 REALTY LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-09-01
current
pecos_ownership
MORRIS, CHRISTOPHER
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-09-01
current
pecos_ownership
MORRIS, CHRISTOPHER
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-05-30
current
pecos_ownership
PROVIDENCE ADMINISTRATIVE CONSULTING SERVICES INC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-09-01
current
pecos_ownership
TRUIST BANK
5% OR GREATER SECURITY INTEREST
—
2024-09-01
current
pecos_ownership
PACS GROUP, INC.
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2024-05-10
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PACS HOLDINGS, LLC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2024-05-10
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PROVIDENCE GROUP NH, LLC
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2024-05-10
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JASON MURRAY
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
35%
2024-05-10
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MARK HANCOCK
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
35%
2024-05-10
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
AMANDA COLLINS
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-09-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CHRISTOPHER MORRIS
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-05-30
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CHRISTOPHER MORRIS
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-09-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
FREDERICK APT
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-05-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOHN MITCHELL
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-05-10
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOSHUA JERGENSEN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-05-10
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
LUKE MAY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-09-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
LUKE MAY
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-05-30
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
6
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-12-31
$200,735
—
$200,735
—
—
1
—
2024-08-31
$549,184
—
$418,906
$130,278
—
6
—
2023-12-31
$826,904
—
$628,360
$198,544
—
6
—
2022-12-31
$785,620
—
$533,913
$251,707
—
6
—
2021-12-31
$1,276,827
$323,268
$355,618
$253,917
$223,576
6
—
2020-12-31
$1,178,920
$285,984
$292,695
$306,949
$166,836
9
—
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
32
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 41005
acs median gross
0
$1,417
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 41005
fmr
0
$1,570
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 41005
acs median gross
1
$1,579
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 41005
fmr
1
$1,677
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 41005
acs median gross
2
$1,736
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 41005
fmr
2
$1,922
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 41005
acs median gross
3
$2,121
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 41005
fmr
3
$2,619
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 41005
acs median gross
4
$2,704
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 41005
fmr
4
$3,109
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 41005
acs median gross
5
$2,558
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 41005
acs median gross
$1,758
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 41005
acs recent mover gross
$1,923
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 97038
acs median gross
2
$1,449
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 97038
acs median gross
3
$1,626
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 97038
acs median gross
4
$2,719
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 97038
acs median gross
$1,639
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 97038
payment standard 110
0
$1,617
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 97038
payment standard 90
0
$1,323
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 97038
safmr
0
$1,470
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 97038
payment standard 110
1
$1,738
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 97038
payment standard 90
1
$1,422
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 97038
safmr
1
$1,580
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 97038
payment standard 110
2
$1,980
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 97038
payment standard 90
2
$1,620
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 97038
safmr
2
$1,800
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 97038
payment standard 110
3
$2,717
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 97038
payment standard 90
3
$2,223
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 97038
safmr
3
$2,470
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 97038
payment standard 110
4
$3,190
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 97038
payment standard 90
4
$2,610
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 97038
safmr
4
$2,900
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.