413 Winecoff School Road, Concord, NC 28027 · CCN 345186 · chain M MELB OPCO LLC
Composite
80.1 / 100 percentile
Peer group
snf n = 14,684
Evidence depth
deep
Certified beds
160
Model
v1.2
Reads as: riskier than 80.1% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
1
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
8 chains
HERZKA YISROEL
70 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
NC median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
3.16
3.08
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.07
0.30
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
3.10
2.93
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.18
3.14
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
151.5
3.16
0.07
0.98
2.11
3.10
0.0%
2025Q3
92
146.2
3.21
0.05
0.95
2.21
3.05
0.0%
2025Q2
91
148.2
3.37
0.03
1.03
2.31
3.18
0.0%
2025Q1
90
148.7
3.12
0.03
1.00
2.08
2.90
1.5%
2024Q4
92
146.4
3.21
0.05
0.90
2.26
3.03
0.0%
2024Q3
92
139.5
3.19
0.09
0.81
2.29
3.01
0.0%
2024Q2
91
140.2
3.22
0.07
0.84
2.30
2.96
0.1%
2024Q1
91
136.9
3.33
0.06
0.99
2.28
3.12
8.8%
2023Q4
92
130.8
3.17
0.07
0.99
2.12
2.89
9.9%
2023Q3
92
119.5
3.52
0.17
1.03
2.33
3.38
12.1%
2023Q2
91
120.2
3.45
0.11
1.03
2.30
3.39
19.8%
2023Q1
90
117.3
3.26
0.12
1.04
2.10
3.21
14.4%
2022Q4
92
117.8
3.02
0.12
0.92
1.97
2.76
0.6%
2022Q3
92
117.5
3.24
0.13
0.91
2.20
2.94
4.0%
2022Q2
91
121.6
3.29
0.14
0.93
2.22
3.02
11.7%
2022Q1
90
106.5
3.87
0.30
0.98
2.59
3.31
16.4%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
D
2026-03-28
2026-03-16
Health · complaint
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
E
2026-03-28
2025-03-05
Health
F0582
Give residents notice of Medicaid/Medicare coverage and potential liability for services not covered.
D
2025-03-25
2025-03-05
Health
F0657
Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals.
D
2025-03-25
2025-03-05
Health
F0686
Provide appropriate pressure ulcer care and prevent new ulcers from developing.
G
2025-03-25
2025-03-05
Health · complaint
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
J
2025-03-25
2025-03-05
Health
F0690
Provide appropriate care for residents who are continent or incontinent of bowel/bladder, appropriate catheter care, and appropriate care to prevent urinary tract infections.
D
2025-03-25
2025-03-05
Health
F0697
Provide safe, appropriate pain management for a resident who requires such services.
G
2025-03-25
2025-03-05
Health
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
E
2025-03-25
2025-03-05
Health · complaint
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2025-03-25
2023-09-14
Health
F0641
Ensure each resident receives an accurate assessment.
B
2023-09-14
2023-09-14
Health
F0685
Assist a resident in gaining access to vision and hearing services.
D
2023-09-27
2023-09-14
Health
F0690
Provide appropriate care for residents who are continent or incontinent of bowel/bladder, appropriate catheter care, and appropriate care to prevent urinary tract infections.
D
2023-09-27
2023-09-14
Health
F0867
Set up an ongoing quality assessment and assurance group to review quality deficiencies and develop corrective plans of action.
B
2023-09-22
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
31
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
FH SNF OPERATIONS HOLDING LLC
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2021-12-31
current
pecos_ownership
CH FH HOLDING LLC
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2026-03-25
current
pecos_ownership
CW FH HOLDINGS LLC
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2026-03-25
current
pecos_ownership
FH OPCO MANAGER LLC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-12-01
current
pecos_ownership
FH OPCO MANAGER LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-12-30
current
pecos_ownership
GOODMAN, MENUCHA
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2025-12-01
current
pecos_ownership
HALL, GEORGE
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2021-12-31
current
pecos_ownership
HERZKA, YISROEL
INDIVIDUAL IS AN OWNER, PARTNER OR TRUSTEE OF ANY ADP OF THE SNF
—
2026-04-15
current
pecos_ownership
MELB OPCO MANAGER LLC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-12-01
current
pecos_ownership
MELB OPCO MANAGER LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-12-29
current
pecos_ownership
MS FH HOLDINGS LLC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2021-12-31
current
pecos_ownership
SE SNF ASSOCIATES LLC
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2026-03-25
current
pecos_ownership
SE SNF ASSOCIATES TRUST
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2026-03-25
current
pecos_ownership
SE SNF HOLDINGS LLC
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2026-03-25
current
pecos_ownership
SE SNF HOLDINGS TRUST
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2026-03-25
current
pecos_ownership
SS FH HOLDINGS LLC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2021-12-31
current
pecos_ownership
STRAUSS, SUSAN
INDIVIDUAL IS AN OWNER, PARTNER OR TRUSTEE OF ANY ADP OF THE SNF
—
2026-02-16
current
pecos_ownership
THOMAS, JONATHAN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-07-12
current
pecos_ownership
VERTEX FINANCIAL SERVICES LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-12-30
current
pecos_ownership
VERTEX FINANCIAL SERVICES LLC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
CW FH HOLDINGS LLC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
22%
2021-12-31
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CH FH HOLDING LLC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2021-12-31
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CHAVA WOLOFSKY
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2021-12-31
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
GEORGE HALL
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2021-12-31
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JONATHAN THOMAS
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-07-12
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
M MELB OPCO LLC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2025-12-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
M MELB OPCO TRUST
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2025-12-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MENUCHA GOODMAN
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2025-12-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
S MELB OPCO LLC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2025-12-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
S MELB OPCO TRUST
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2025-12-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
YISROEL HERZKA
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2021-12-31
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
6
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-12-31
$963,716
—
$942,799
—
$4,720
1
—
2023-12-31
$810,522
—
—
—
—
1
—
2022-12-31
$1,077,835
—
—
—
—
2
—
2021-12-30
$156,032
—
$79,134
—
$16,532
5
—
2021-09-30
$692,797
—
$345,906
—
$72,263
5
—
2020-09-30
$704,981
—
—
—
$78,444
5
—
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
36
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 37025
acs median gross
0
$1,178
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 37025
fmr
0
$1,469
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 37025
acs median gross
1
$1,268
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 37025
fmr
1
$1,538
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 37025
acs median gross
2
$1,328
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 37025
fmr
2
$1,686
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 37025
acs median gross
3
$1,494
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 37025
fmr
3
$2,076
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 37025
acs median gross
4
$2,084
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 37025
fmr
4
$2,637
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 37025
acs median gross
5
$2,039
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 37025
acs median gross
$1,414
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 37025
acs recent mover gross
$1,809
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 28027
acs median gross
0
$1,229
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 28027
acs median gross
1
$1,434
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 28027
acs median gross
2
$1,536
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 28027
acs median gross
3
$1,745
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 28027
acs median gross
4
$2,078
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 28027
acs median gross
5
$2,667
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 28027
acs median gross
$1,561
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 28027
acs recent mover gross
$1,870
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 28027
payment standard 110
0
$1,595
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28027
payment standard 90
0
$1,305
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28027
safmr
0
$1,450
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28027
payment standard 110
1
$1,661
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28027
payment standard 90
1
$1,359
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28027
safmr
1
$1,510
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28027
payment standard 110
2
$1,826
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28027
payment standard 90
2
$1,494
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28027
safmr
2
$1,660
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28027
payment standard 110
3
$2,244
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28027
payment standard 90
3
$1,836
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28027
safmr
3
$2,040
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28027
payment standard 110
4
$2,860
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28027
payment standard 90
4
$2,340
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28027
safmr
4
$2,600
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.