Reads as: riskier than 94.5% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
1
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
56% fined
BYNC HOLDINGS LLC
9 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
NC median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
3.16
3.08
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.70
0.30
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
3.12
2.93
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.17
3.14
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
105.1
3.16
0.70
0.56
1.89
3.12
68.1%
2025Q3
92
102.8
3.05
0.76
0.52
1.78
3.06
69.9%
2025Q2
91
99.7
3.02
0.81
0.43
1.78
2.99
74.1%
2025Q1
90
105.1
2.96
0.74
0.45
1.78
2.97
72.9%
2024Q4
92
106.3
2.92
0.70
0.45
1.76
2.90
61.5%
2024Q3
92
102.2
3.02
0.74
0.51
1.77
3.02
59.9%
2024Q2
91
101.0
3.12
0.74
0.51
1.86
3.10
58.8%
2024Q1
91
95.3
3.13
0.80
0.54
1.79
3.15
60.9%
2023Q4
92
83.0
3.07
0.83
0.49
1.75
3.12
63.0%
2023Q3
92
81.8
3.03
0.67
0.61
1.75
3.06
81.0%
2023Q2
91
76.0
3.15
0.57
0.75
1.83
3.15
86.0%
2023Q1
90
77.6
3.22
0.61
0.79
1.82
3.13
88.0%
2022Q4
92
79.2
3.15
0.65
0.80
1.70
3.02
87.1%
2022Q3
92
78.1
2.71
0.62
0.63
1.46
2.54
72.5%
2022Q2
91
69.1
3.04
0.76
0.57
1.71
2.94
63.9%
2022Q1
90
65.1
2.98
0.73
0.55
1.70
2.87
57.3%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Ensure each resident receives an accurate assessment.
D
2026-02-04
2026-01-16
Health
F0644
Coordinate assessments with the pre-admission screening and resident review program; and referring for services as needed.
D
2026-02-04
2025-02-05
Health · complaint
F0604
Ensure that each resident is free from the use of physical restraints, unless needed for medical treatment.
J
2025-01-28
2025-02-05
Health · complaint
F0607
Develop and implement policies and procedures to prevent abuse, neglect, and theft.
J
2025-01-28
2025-02-05
Health · complaint
F0609
Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities.
D
2025-02-13
2024-11-01
Health
F0558
Reasonably accommodate the needs and preferences of each resident.
D
2024-11-11
2024-11-01
Health · complaint
F0584
Honor the resident's right to a safe, clean, comfortable and homelike environment, including but not limited to receiving treatment and supports for daily living safely.
D
2024-11-11
2024-11-01
Health
F0686
Provide appropriate pressure ulcer care and prevent new ulcers from developing.
D
2024-11-11
2024-11-01
Health
F0756
Ensure a licensed pharmacist perform a monthly drug regimen review, including the medical chart, following irregularity reporting guidelines in developed policies and procedures.
E
2024-11-11
2024-11-01
Health · complaint
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
F
2024-11-11
2024-11-01
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2024-11-11
2024-06-21
Health · complaint
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
D
2024-07-10
2024-04-25
Health · complaint
F0580
Immediately tell the resident, the resident's doctor, and a family member of situations (injury/decline/room, etc.) that affect the resident.
D
2024-06-21
2024-04-25
Health · complaint
F0609
Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities.
D
2024-06-21
2024-04-25
Health · complaint
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
G
2024-06-21
2024-04-25
Health · complaint
F0726
Ensure that nurses and nurse aides have the appropriate competencies to care for every resident in a way that maximizes each resident's well being.
D
2024-06-21
2023-10-16
Health · complaint
F0658
Ensure services provided by the nursing facility meet professional standards of quality.
D
2023-10-19
2023-10-16
Health · complaint
F0677
Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable.
D
2023-10-19
2023-10-16
Health · complaint
F0808
Ensure therapeutic diets are prescribed by the attending physician and may be delegated to a registered or licensed dietitian, to the extent allowed by State law.
D
2023-10-19
2023-10-16
Health · complaint
F0867
Set up an ongoing quality assessment and assurance group to review quality deficiencies and develop corrective plans of action.
D
2023-10-19
2023-08-04
Health
F0554
Allow residents to self-administer drugs if determined clinically appropriate.
D
2023-10-16
2023-08-04
Health
F0582
Give residents notice of Medicaid/Medicare coverage and potential liability for services not covered.
D
2023-10-16
2023-08-04
Health
F0584
Honor the resident's right to a safe, clean, comfortable and homelike environment, including but not limited to receiving treatment and supports for daily living safely.
B
2023-10-16
2023-08-04
Health
F0644
Coordinate assessments with the pre-admission screening and resident review program; and referring for services as needed.
D
2023-10-16
2023-08-04
Health
F0646
Notify the appropriate authorities when residents with MD or ID services has a significant change in condition.
D
2023-10-16
2023-08-04
Health
F0655
Create and put into place a plan for meeting the resident's most immediate needs within 48 hours of being admitted
D
2023-10-16
2023-08-04
Health
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
D
2023-10-16
2023-08-04
Health
F0658
Ensure services provided by the nursing facility meet professional standards of quality.
D
2023-10-19
2023-08-04
Health
F0677
Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable.
D
2023-10-19
2023-08-04
Health
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
D
2023-10-16
2023-08-04
Health
F0803
Ensure menus must meet the nutritional needs of residents, be prepared in advance, be followed, be updated, be reviewed by dietician, and meet the needs of the resident.
F
2023-10-16
2023-08-04
Health
F0808
Ensure therapeutic diets are prescribed by the attending physician and may be delegated to a registered or licensed dietitian, to the extent allowed by State law.
D
2023-10-19
2023-08-04
Health
F0867
Set up an ongoing quality assessment and assurance group to review quality deficiencies and develop corrective plans of action.
D
2023-10-19
2023-08-04
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2023-10-16
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
10
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
BYNC HOLDINGS LLC
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2022-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
STARLIGHT HEALTHCARE LLC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
50%
2022-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
CAPITAL HOLDINGS TRUST
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
47%
2022-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
JEREMIAS, BARUCH
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2022-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
SHOGREN, PAUL
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2022-11-22
current
pecos_ownership
STERN, JACOB
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2022-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
JACOB STERN
CORPORATE OFFICER
100%
2022-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PAUL SHOGREN
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
100%
2022-11-22
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
10-26 NATIONWIDE TR
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
50%
2022-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
BARUCH JEREMIAS
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
50%
2022-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
6
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-12-31
$1,005,579
—
$962,854
—
—
1
—
2023-12-31
$1,189,363
—
—
—
—
1
—
2022-12-31
$582,602
—
—
—
$235,205
1
—
2022-06-30
$136,986
—
$136,986
—
—
2
—
2022-03-31
$493,915
—
$493,915
—
—
2
—
2021-03-31
$489,796
—
$489,796
—
—
2
—
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
34
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 37089
acs median gross
0
$1,340
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 37089
fmr
0
$1,227
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 37089
acs median gross
1
$1,110
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 37089
fmr
1
$1,429
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 37089
acs median gross
2
$1,144
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 37089
fmr
2
$1,567
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 37089
acs median gross
3
$1,191
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 37089
fmr
3
$1,905
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 37089
acs median gross
4
$1,622
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 37089
fmr
4
$2,629
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 37089
acs median gross
5
$2,184
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 37089
acs median gross
$1,187
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 37089
acs recent mover gross
$1,367
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 28791
acs median gross
1
$827
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 28791
acs median gross
2
$1,166
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 28791
acs median gross
3
$1,239
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 28791
acs median gross
4
$1,421
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 28791
acs median gross
$1,209
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 28791
acs recent mover gross
$1,401
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 28791
payment standard 110
0
$1,441
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28791
payment standard 90
0
$1,179
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28791
safmr
0
$1,310
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28791
payment standard 110
1
$1,672
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28791
payment standard 90
1
$1,368
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28791
safmr
1
$1,520
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28791
payment standard 110
2
$1,837
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28791
payment standard 90
2
$1,503
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28791
safmr
2
$1,670
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28791
payment standard 110
3
$2,233
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28791
payment standard 90
3
$1,827
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28791
safmr
3
$2,030
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28791
payment standard 110
4
$3,080
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28791
payment standard 90
4
$2,520
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28791
safmr
4
$2,800
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.