Reads as: riskier than 41.0% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
NC median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
3.50
3.08
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.32
0.30
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
3.61
2.93
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.46
3.14
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
89.5
3.50
0.32
0.79
2.39
3.61
0.0%
2025Q3
92
85.7
3.46
0.38
0.74
2.34
3.49
0.0%
2025Q2
91
90.3
3.26
0.19
0.79
2.29
3.21
0.0%
2025Q1
90
90.1
3.25
0.13
0.79
2.33
3.17
0.0%
2024Q4
92
93.5
3.40
0.16
0.73
2.50
3.32
0.0%
2024Q3
92
92.0
2.49
0.15
0.47
1.87
2.49
0.0%
2024Q2
91
90.6
3.65
0.28
0.71
2.65
3.53
0.0%
2024Q1
91
86.5
3.69
0.25
0.78
2.66
3.67
0.0%
2023Q4
92
89.4
3.43
0.24
0.83
2.35
3.51
0.0%
2023Q3
92
86.4
3.43
0.24
0.87
2.33
3.49
0.0%
2023Q2
91
76.0
2.75
0.23
0.85
1.67
2.71
0.0%
2023Q1
90
82.1
2.60
0.18
0.98
1.44
2.61
0.0%
2022Q4
92
82.6
2.79
0.14
1.00
1.65
2.68
0.0%
2022Q3
92
80.0
2.98
0.25
0.81
1.93
2.79
0.0%
2022Q2
91
80.4
1.88
0.20
0.53
1.15
1.80
0.0%
2022Q1
90
83.9
2.94
0.31
0.79
1.85
2.73
0.0%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Immediately tell the resident, the resident's doctor, and a family member of situations (injury/decline/room, etc.) that affect the resident.
D
2026-02-04
2026-03-19
Health
F0641
Ensure each resident receives an accurate assessment.
D
2026-03-31
2026-03-19
Health
F0655
Create and put into place a plan for meeting the resident's most immediate needs within 48 hours of being admitted
D
2026-03-31
2026-03-19
Health
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
D
2026-03-31
2026-03-19
Health · complaint
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
D
2026-02-04
2025-04-30
Health · complaint
F0760
Ensure that residents are free from significant medication errors.
D
2025-04-30
2025-01-17
Health
F0578
Honor the resident's right to request, refuse, and/or discontinue treatment, to participate in or refuse to participate in experimental research, and to formulate an advance directive.
D
2025-02-06
2025-01-17
Health
F0695
Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed.
D
2025-02-06
2025-01-17
Health
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
D
2025-01-20
2025-01-17
Health
F0851
Electronically submit to CMS complete and accurate direct care staffing information, based on payroll and other verifiable and auditable data.
F
2024-11-15
2024-08-20
Health · complaint
F0580
Immediately tell the resident, the resident's doctor, and a family member of situations (injury/decline/room, etc.) that affect the resident.
J
2024-08-01
2024-08-20
Health · complaint
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
J
2024-07-24
2023-08-30
Health · complaint
F0609
Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities.
B
2023-09-18
2023-08-30
Health
F0759
Ensure medication error rates are not 5 percent or greater.
D
2023-09-18
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
29
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
GOINS, TED
TRUSTEE OF THE SNF
—
2004-10-01
current
pecos_ownership
HERMAN, RICHARD
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2022-06-01
current
pecos_ownership
LH - FORSYTH PROPERTY
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
—
2023-10-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
LH - FORSYTH PROPERTY
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
—
2022-10-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
LSA ELMS PROPERTY, INC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-03-16
current
pecos_ownership
LSA MANAGEMENT, INC.
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-03-16
current
pecos_ownership
LSA MANAGEMENT, INC.
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2008-08-28
current
pecos_ownership
LUTHERAN SERVICES FOR THE AGING, INC.
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2008-08-28
current
pecos_ownership
MADDRY, KAREN
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2014-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
MCCOY, CYNTHIA
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2003-06-26
current
pecos_ownership
MCCOY, CYNTHIA
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-06-26
current
pecos_ownership
NELSON, DOUGLAS
TRUSTEE OF THE SNF
—
2022-09-01
current
pecos_ownership
NICKERSON, KIRBY
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2012-10-01
current
pecos_ownership
OWENS-WATTERSON, DAWN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-05-03
current
pecos_ownership
SMITH, KESHA
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2003-09-08
current
pecos_ownership
SMITH, KESHA
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2012-10-01
current
pecos_ownership
KESHA SMITH
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
0%
2003-09-08
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
KIRBY NICKERSON
CORPORATE OFFICER
0%
2012-10-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CYNTHIA MCCOY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-06-26
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CYNTHIA MCCOY
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2003-06-26
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DAWN OWENS-WATTERSON
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-05-03
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DOUGLAS NELSON
TRUSTEE OF THE SNF
—
2022-09-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
KAREN MADDRY
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2014-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
KESHA SMITH
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2012-10-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
LH - FORSYTH PROPERTY
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
—
2020-10-01
ended 2021-09-30
hcris_a_8_1
LH - FORSYTH PROPERTY
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
—
2021-10-01
ended 2022-09-30
hcris_a_8_1
LH - WILMINGTON PROPERTY
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
—
2019-10-01
ended 2020-09-30
hcris_a_8_1
RICHARD HERMAN
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2022-06-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
TED GOINS
TRUSTEE OF THE SNF
—
2004-10-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
5
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-09-30
$3,381,970
—
$542,637
$1,425,436
—
4
propco
2023-09-30
$2,529,764
—
$412,865
$946,063
—
14
propco
2022-09-30
$2,472,502
—
$432,125
$764,291
—
14
propco
2021-09-30
$2,326,940
—
$450,165
$882,580
—
14
propco
2020-09-30
$2,297,280
—
$441,522
$741,226
—
14
propco
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
34
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 37067
acs median gross
0
$893
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 37067
fmr
0
$995
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 37067
acs median gross
1
$977
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 37067
fmr
1
$1,082
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 37067
acs median gross
2
$1,054
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 37067
fmr
2
$1,232
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 37067
acs median gross
3
$1,370
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 37067
fmr
3
$1,607
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 37067
acs median gross
4
$1,713
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 37067
fmr
4
$1,898
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 37067
acs median gross
5
$1,882
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 37067
acs median gross
$1,098
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 37067
acs recent mover gross
$1,403
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 27012
acs median gross
1
$1,308
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 27012
acs median gross
2
$1,131
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 27012
acs median gross
3
$1,694
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 27012
acs median gross
4
$2,128
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 27012
acs median gross
$1,227
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 27012
acs recent mover gross
$2,049
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 27012
payment standard 110
0
$1,155
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 27012
payment standard 90
0
$945
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 27012
safmr
0
$1,050
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 27012
payment standard 110
1
$1,243
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 27012
payment standard 90
1
$1,017
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 27012
safmr
1
$1,130
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 27012
payment standard 110
2
$1,408
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 27012
payment standard 90
2
$1,152
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 27012
safmr
2
$1,280
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 27012
payment standard 110
3
$1,859
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 27012
payment standard 90
3
$1,521
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 27012
safmr
3
$1,690
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 27012
payment standard 110
4
$2,200
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 27012
payment standard 90
4
$1,800
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 27012
safmr
4
$2,000
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.