Reads as: riskier than 44.3% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
4
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+22.7 vs natl
CARE REALTY LLC
20 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+22.5 vs natl
BARUCH DAVID
37 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+21.8 vs natl
STRAUS DANIEL
37 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+21.5 vs natl
DES C 2009 GRAT
19 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
CT median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
3.14
3.46
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.18
0.40
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
2.96
3.25
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.22
3.51
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
107.6
3.14
0.18
0.83
2.13
2.96
0.0%
2025Q3
92
107.9
3.13
0.11
0.82
2.20
2.91
0.0%
2025Q2
91
109.5
3.01
0.14
0.86
2.00
2.87
0.0%
2025Q1
90
111.5
3.11
0.16
0.93
2.03
3.05
0.0%
2024Q4
92
110.7
3.05
0.17
0.97
1.91
2.98
0.0%
2024Q3
92
107.4
3.44
0.38
0.98
2.08
3.22
0.0%
2024Q2
91
108.3
3.55
0.39
1.01
2.15
3.38
0.0%
2024Q1
91
105.6
3.49
0.41
1.05
2.02
3.33
0.0%
2023Q4
92
103.5
3.53
0.41
1.07
2.05
3.33
0.0%
2023Q3
92
104.2
3.44
0.36
1.12
1.95
3.16
0.0%
2023Q2
91
106.4
3.16
0.33
1.15
1.69
2.97
0.0%
2023Q1
90
109.8
3.09
0.26
1.09
1.74
2.98
0.0%
2022Q4
92
98.4
3.15
0.28
1.11
1.77
3.08
0.0%
2022Q3
92
97.1
3.13
0.32
1.06
1.75
3.18
0.0%
2022Q2
91
90.7
3.40
0.43
1.07
1.90
3.40
2.4%
2022Q1
90
86.6
3.59
0.43
1.08
2.09
3.48
11.9%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0
No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
27
B × 3D × 24
deficiencies by survey year
Survey
Type
Tag
Deficiency
Scope
Corrected
2025-08-15
Health
F0554
Allow residents to self-administer drugs if determined clinically appropriate.
D
2025-10-01
2025-08-15
Health
F0578
Honor the resident's right to request, refuse, and/or discontinue treatment, to participate in or refuse to participate in experimental research, and to formulate an advance directive.
D
2025-10-01
2025-08-15
Health
F0641
Ensure each resident receives an accurate assessment.
B
2025-10-01
2025-08-15
Health
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
D
2025-10-01
2025-08-15
Health
F0657
Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals.
D
2025-10-01
2025-08-15
Health
F0658
Ensure services provided by the nursing facility meet professional standards of quality.
D
2025-10-01
2025-08-15
Health
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
D
2025-10-01
2025-08-15
Health
F0695
Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed.
D
2025-10-01
2025-08-15
Health
F0755
Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist.
B
2025-10-01
2025-08-15
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2025-10-01
2025-07-07
Health · complaint
F0600
Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody.
D
2025-08-14
2025-07-07
Health · complaint
F0603
Protect each resident from separation (from other residents, his/her room, or confinement to his/her room).
D
2025-06-24
2025-07-07
Health · complaint
F0609
Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities.
D
2025-08-14
2025-07-07
Health · complaint
F0842
Safeguard resident-identifiable information and/or maintain medical records on each resident that are in accordance with accepted professional standards.
D
2025-08-14
2025-03-31
Health · complaint
F0550
Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights.
D
2025-05-01
2023-12-22
Health
F0550
Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights.
D
2024-01-31
2023-12-22
Health
F0644
Coordinate assessments with the pre-admission screening and resident review program; and referring for services as needed.
D
2024-01-31
2023-12-22
Health
F0741
Ensure that the facility has sufficient staff members who possess the competencies and skills to meet the behavioral health needs of residents.
B
2024-01-31
2023-12-22
Health
F0759
Ensure medication error rates are not 5 percent or greater.
D
2024-01-31
2021-08-31
Health
F0550
Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights.
D
2021-10-05
2021-08-31
Health
F0580
Immediately tell the resident, the resident's doctor, and a family member of situations (injury/decline/room, etc.) that affect the resident.
D
2021-10-05
2021-08-31
Health
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
D
2021-10-05
2021-08-31
Health
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
D
2021-10-05
2021-08-31
Health
F0686
Provide appropriate pressure ulcer care and prevent new ulcers from developing.
D
2021-10-05
2021-08-31
Health
F0711
Ensure the resident's doctor reviews the resident's care, writes, signs and dates progress notes and orders, at each required visit.
D
2021-10-05
2021-08-31
Health
F0842
Safeguard resident-identifiable information and/or maintain medical records on each resident that are in accordance with accepted professional standards.
D
2021-10-05
2021-08-31
Health
F0883
Develop and implement policies and procedures for flu and pneumonia vaccinations.
D
2021-10-05
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
15
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
162 SOUTH BRITAIN ROAD
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
100%
2024-01-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
162 SOUTH BRITAIN ROAD
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
100%
2023-01-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
THCI COMPANY, LLC
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2002-04-30
current
pecos_ownership
BARUCH, DAVID
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2021-12-01
current
pecos_ownership
CARE HOLDINGS, LLC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2002-04-30
current
pecos_ownership
CARE REALTY, LLC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2002-04-30
current
pecos_ownership
DES-C 2009 GRAT
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2017-06-30
current
pecos_ownership
HEALTHBRIDGE MANAGEMENT LLC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2003-07-28
current
pecos_ownership
STRAUS, DANIEL
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2002-04-30
current
pecos_ownership
THCI HOLDING COMPANY, LLC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2002-04-30
current
pecos_ownership
162 SOUTH BRITAIN ROAD
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
100%
2020-01-01
ended 2020-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
162 SOUTH BRITAIN ROAD
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
100%
2021-01-01
ended 2021-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
162 SOUTH BRITAIN ROAD
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
100%
2022-01-01
ended 2022-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
DANIEL STRAUS
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
55%
2002-04-30
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DAVID BARUCH
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2021-12-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
5
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-12-31
$2,278,878
$687,841
—
$-746
—
4
propco
2023-12-31
$2,289,581
$651,804
—
$82,551
—
4
propco
2022-12-31
$1,985,032
$676,261
—
$51,806
$10,537
4
propco
2021-12-31
$2,110,907
$863,686
—
$40,957
—
4
propco
2020-12-31
$1,680,761
$590,510
—
$51,649
$8,122
4
propco
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
27
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 09140
acs median gross
0
$1,013
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 09140
acs median gross
1
$1,067
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 09140
acs median gross
2
$1,395
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 09140
acs median gross
3
$1,599
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 09140
acs median gross
4
$1,974
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 09140
acs median gross
5
$2,753
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 09140
acs median gross
$1,330
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 09140
acs recent mover gross
$1,463
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 06488
acs median gross
1
$1,612
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 06488
acs median gross
2
$1,948
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 06488
acs median gross
3
$2,375
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 06488
acs median gross
$1,935
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 06488
payment standard 110
0
$1,980
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 06488
payment standard 90
0
$1,620
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 06488
safmr
0
$1,800
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 06488
payment standard 110
1
$2,299
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 06488
payment standard 90
1
$1,881
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 06488
safmr
1
$2,090
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 06488
payment standard 110
2
$2,849
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 06488
payment standard 90
2
$2,331
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 06488
safmr
2
$2,590
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 06488
payment standard 110
3
$3,520
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 06488
payment standard 90
3
$2,880
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 06488
safmr
3
$3,200
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 06488
payment standard 110
4
$4,158
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 06488
payment standard 90
4
$3,402
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 06488
safmr
4
$3,780
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.