Composite
95.4 / 100 percentile
| Component | Percentile | Raw | Weight | Weight share | Contribution | Counts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| financial risk | 90.0 | 77.5 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 20.77 | in index |
| regulatory risk | 71.3 | 66.7 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 16.45 | in index |
| staffing risk | 77.3 | 77.3 | 0.25 | 0.1923 | 14.87 | in index |
| billing conduct | 58.4 | 42.9 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 13.48 | in index |
| chow risk | 53.6 | 58.3 | 0.15 | 0.1154 | 6.18 | in index |
| Score type | Score | Grade | Model | Status | Registry model notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| billing conduct | 42.9 | B | v0.1-pacpuf-snf | default · in composite | R22. PAC PUF SNF 2023. PDPM coding intensity vs acuity, stay length, charge markup. |
| chow risk | 24.1 | A | v0.1-pos | default · in composite | Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure. |
| chow risk | 92.5 | F | v0.6 | default · in composite | |
| financial risk | 77.5 | D | v0.5 | default · in composite | R18. |
| p adverse action 12m | 0.4 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite. |
| p chow 12m | 1.8 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite. |
| regulatory risk | 66.7 | D | v0.3 | default · in composite | Deficiency-based, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.5-pos. |
| staffing risk | 77.3 | D | v0.3 | default · in composite | Cost-report staffing, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.4-pos, which covers ICF/IID from POS. |
| financial risk | 79.1 | D | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 59.1 | C | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 68.8 | D | v0.3 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 76.9 | D | v0.4 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 66.5 | D | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 66.5 | D | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 77.3 | D | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 77.3 | D | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| For-profit ownership | 1.00 | +0.69 | |
| Never sold on record | 1.00 | +0.62 | |
| Current owner tenure (years) | 25.00 | +0.57 | |
| Occupancy | 0.86 | -0.48 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.42 | |
| Chain size (log) | 0.00 | -0.40 | |
| Ownership changes, last 5 years | 0.00 | +0.20 | |
| Deficiencies, last 12 months | 1.00 | -0.15 |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deficiencies, last 12 months | 1.00 | +1.24 | |
| Chain size (log) | 0.00 | +1.20 | |
| For-profit ownership | 1.00 | -0.69 | |
| Occupancy | 0.86 | -0.48 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.39 | |
| Fine amount, 12m (log) | 0.00 | +0.18 | |
| Total nurse staffing (HPRD) | 2.86 | +0.15 | |
| Never sold on record | 1.00 | +0.12 |
| 2025Q4 HPRD | This facility | CT median | National median | National p25–p75 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total nurse | 2.86 | 3.46 | 3.28 | 2.90–3.77 |
| RN | 0.28 | 0.40 | 0.39 | 0.25–0.58 |
| Weekend total | 2.77 | 3.25 | 3.11 | — |
| Weekday total | 2.89 | 3.51 | 3.35 | — |
| Quarter | Days | Avg census | Total HPRD | RN | LPN | CNA | Weekend | Contract % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025Q4 | 92 | 112.2 | 2.86 | 0.28 | 0.60 | 1.97 | 2.77 | 2.0% |
| 2025Q3 | 92 | 113.9 | 2.82 | 0.29 | 0.60 | 1.92 | 2.79 | 5.6% |
| 2025Q2 | 91 | 110.4 | 2.89 | 0.32 | 0.58 | 1.99 | 2.87 | 5.5% |
| 2025Q1 | 90 | 109.1 | 3.00 | 0.39 | 0.52 | 2.09 | 2.96 | 4.9% |
| 2024Q4 | 92 | 106.1 | 3.04 | 0.45 | 0.55 | 2.05 | 2.99 | 5.2% |
| 2024Q3 | 92 | 101.9 | 3.16 | 0.46 | 0.51 | 2.20 | 3.10 | 4.3% |
| 2024Q2 | 91 | 93.4 | 3.30 | 0.51 | 0.64 | 2.15 | 3.23 | 11.7% |
| 2024Q1 | 91 | 86.4 | 3.35 | 0.47 | 0.69 | 2.20 | 3.27 | 23.9% |
| 2023Q4 | 92 | 80.6 | 2.99 | 0.39 | 0.56 | 2.04 | 2.98 | 23.1% |
| 2023Q3 | 92 | 83.5 | 2.53 | 0.46 | 0.46 | 1.61 | 2.40 | 12.8% |
| 2023Q2 | 91 | 90.7 | 2.18 | 0.42 | 0.31 | 1.44 | 2.04 | 5.7% |
| 2023Q1 | 90 | 89.2 | 2.38 | 0.51 | 0.33 | 1.55 | 2.37 | 1.9% |
| 2022Q4 | 92 | 83.1 | 2.40 | 0.49 | 0.36 | 1.55 | 2.44 | 2.5% |
| 2022Q3 | 92 | 84.1 | 2.04 | 0.36 | 0.42 | 1.25 | 2.06 | 2.7% |
| 2022Q2 | 91 | 83.7 | 2.10 | 0.45 | 0.50 | 1.15 | 2.06 | 0.0% |
| 2022Q1 | 90 | 83.7 | 2.14 | 0.46 | 0.40 | 1.28 | 2.16 | 0.0% |
| Date | Type | Fine | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-02-05 | Fine | $16,065 | CMS provider data |
| Survey | Type | Tag | Deficiency | Scope | Corrected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-16 | Health · complaint | F0550 | Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights. | D | 2026-02-06 |
| 2025-06-03 | Health · complaint | F0554 | Allow residents to self-administer drugs if determined clinically appropriate. | D | 2025-07-14 |
| 2025-02-10 | Health · complaint | F0684 | Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals. | D | 2025-03-03 |
| 2025-02-10 | Health · complaint | F0842 | Safeguard resident-identifiable information and/or maintain medical records on each resident that are in accordance with accepted professional standards. | D | 2025-03-03 |
| 2025-01-22 | Health · complaint | F0658 | Ensure services provided by the nursing facility meet professional standards of quality. | D | 2025-03-03 |
| 2025-01-22 | Health · complaint | F0836 | Ensure the facility is licensed under applicable State and local law and operates and provides services in compliance with all applicable Federal, State, and local laws, regulations, and codes, and with accepted professional standards. | C | 2025-03-03 |
| 2024-09-16 | Health · complaint | F0602 | Protect each resident from the wrongful use of the resident's belongings or money. | D | 2024-10-02 |
| 2024-03-14 | Health | F0623 | Provide timely notification to the resident, and if applicable to the resident representative and ombudsman, before transfer or discharge, including appeal rights. | B | 2024-04-25 |
| 2024-03-14 | Health | F0656 | Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured. | D | 2024-04-24 |
| 2024-03-14 | Health | F0684 | Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals. | D | 2024-04-24 |
| 2024-03-14 | Health | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | D | 2024-04-24 |
| 2024-03-14 | Health | F0697 | Provide safe, appropriate pain management for a resident who requires such services. | G | 2024-03-15 |
| 2024-03-14 | Health | F0730 | Observe each nurse aide's job performance and give regular training. | B | 2024-04-24 |
| 2024-03-14 | Health | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | E | 2024-04-24 |
| 2024-03-14 | Health | F0881 | Implement a program that monitors antibiotic use. | E | 2024-04-24 |
| 2024-03-14 | Health | F0882 | Designate a qualified infection preventionist to be responsible for the infection prevent and control program in the nursing home. | E | 2024-04-24 |
| 2024-02-05 | Health · complaint | F0658 | Ensure services provided by the nursing facility meet professional standards of quality. | D | 2024-03-18 |
| 2024-02-05 | Health · complaint | F0677 | Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable. | D | 2024-03-18 |
| 2024-02-05 | Health · complaint | F0842 | Safeguard resident-identifiable information and/or maintain medical records on each resident that are in accordance with accepted professional standards. | B | 2024-03-18 |
| 2023-12-01 | Health · complaint | F0600 | Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody. | D | 2023-12-25 |
| 2023-08-08 | Health · complaint | F0600 | Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody. | I | 2023-09-19 |
| 2023-08-08 | Health · complaint | F0711 | Ensure the resident's doctor reviews the resident's care, writes, signs and dates progress notes and orders, at each required visit. | E | 2023-09-19 |
| 2023-08-08 | Health · complaint | F0725 | Provide enough nursing staff every day to meet the needs of every resident; and have a licensed nurse in charge on each shift. | I | 2023-09-19 |
| 2023-08-08 | Health · complaint | F0921 | Make sure that the nursing home area is safe, easy to use, clean and comfortable for residents, staff and the public. | E | 2023-09-19 |
| 2021-12-07 | Health | F0684 | Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals. | E | 2022-02-25 |
| 2021-12-07 | Health | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | D | 2022-02-25 |
| 2021-12-07 | Health | F0695 | Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed. | D | 2022-02-25 |
| 2021-12-07 | Health | F0727 | Have a registered nurse on duty 8 hours a day; and select a registered nurse to be the director of nurses on a full time basis. | E | 2022-02-25 |
| 2019-07-25 | Health | F0578 | Honor the resident's right to request, refuse, and/or discontinue treatment, to participate in or refuse to participate in experimental research, and to formulate an advance directive. | D | 2019-09-05 |
| 2019-07-25 | Health | F0584 | Honor the resident's right to a safe, clean, comfortable and homelike environment, including but not limited to receiving treatment and supports for daily living safely. | D | 2019-09-05 |
| 2019-07-25 | Health | F0658 | Ensure services provided by the nursing facility meet professional standards of quality. | D | 2019-09-05 |
| 2019-07-25 | Health | F0677 | Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable. | D | 2019-09-05 |
| 2019-07-25 | Health | F0684 | Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals. | D | 2019-09-05 |
| 2019-07-25 | Health | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | G | 2019-08-27 |
| 2019-07-25 | Health | F0690 | Provide appropriate care for residents who are continent or incontinent of bowel/bladder, appropriate catheter care, and appropriate care to prevent urinary tract infections. | B | 2019-09-05 |
| 2019-07-25 | Health | F0692 | Provide enough food/fluids to maintain a resident's health. | D | 2019-09-05 |
| 2019-07-25 | Health | F0695 | Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed. | D | 2019-09-05 |
| 2019-07-25 | Health | F0725 | Provide enough nursing staff every day to meet the needs of every resident; and have a licensed nurse in charge on each shift. | E | 2019-09-05 |
| 2019-07-25 | Health | F0761 | Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs. | D | 2019-09-05 |
| 2019-07-25 | Health | F0777 | Provide or obtain x-rays/tests when ordered and promptly tell the ordering practitioner of the results. | D | 2019-09-05 |
| 2019-07-25 | Health | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | E | 2019-09-05 |
| 2019-07-25 | Health | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | D | 2019-09-05 |
| Owner | Role | Pct | From | Status | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FOLEY, BRIAN | 5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 100% | 2004-07-23 | current | pecos_ownership |
| ORCHARD GROVE | Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider | — | 2023-01-01 | current | hcris_a_8_1 |
| ORCHARD GROVE | Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider | — | 2024-01-01 | current | hcris_a_8_1 |
| SINGH, DEVIKA | W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE | — | 2018-09-10 | current | pecos_ownership |
| VESS, RYAN | CORPORATE DIRECTOR | — | 2013-03-15 | current | pecos_ownership |
| BRIAN FOLEY | 5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 100% | 2004-07-23 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| ORCHARD GROVE | Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider | 100% | 2020-01-01 | ended 2020-12-31 | hcris_a_8_1 |
| DEVIKA SINGH | W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE | 0% | 2018-09-10 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| RYAN VESS | CORPORATE DIRECTOR | 0% | 2013-03-15 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| ORCHARD GROVE | Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider | — | 2021-01-01 | ended 2021-12-31 | hcris_a_8_1 |
| ORCHARD GROVE | Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider | — | 2022-01-01 | ended 2022-12-31 | hcris_a_8_1 |
| Close | Facility | Price | $/bed | Cap rate | Beds | Buyer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-21 | INGRAHAM MANOR REHAB AND NURSING | — | — | — | 128 | IM OPCO LLC |
| 2025-05-15 | HAVENCARE AT LITCHFIELD WOODS | — | — | — | 160 | LITCHFIELD OPCO LLC |
| 2025-05-15 | HAVENCARE AT VALERIE MANOR | — | — | — | 151 | VALERIE OPCO LLC |
| 2024-10-10 | SHADY KNOLL CENTER FOR HEALTH & REHABILITATION | — | — | — | 128 | SHADY KNOLL ACQUISITION OPERATOR LLC |
| 2024-10-10 | MAEFAIR CENTER FOR HEALTH & REHABILITATION | — | — | — | 134 | MAEFAIR ACQUISITION OPERATOR LLC |
| 2024-10-10 | GLASTONBURY CENTER FOR HEALTH & REHABILITATION | — | — | — | 105 | GLASTONBURY ACQUISITION OPERATOR LLC |
| 2024-08-01 | MANSFIELD CENTER FOR NURSING AND REHABILITATION | — | — | — | 98 | MANSFIELD ACQUISITION OPERATOR LLC |
| 2024-06-07 | EVERGREEN CENTER FOR HEALTH & REHABILITATION | — | — | — | 180 | EVERGREEN ACQUISITION OPERATOR LLC |
| 2024-06-07 | MONTOWESE CENTER FOR HEALTH & REHABILITATION | — | — | — | 120 | MONTOWESE ACQUISITION OPERATOR LLC |
| 2024-06-07 | SHARON CENTER FOR HEALTH & REHABILITATION | — | — | — | 88 | SHARON ACQUISITION OPERATOR LLC |
| 2024-06-07 | BEACON BROOK CENTER FOR HEALTH & REHABILITATION | — | — | — | 126 | BEACON BROOK ACQUISITION OPERATOR LLC |
| 2024-06-07 | STONE BRIDGE CENTER FOR HEALTH & REHABILITATION | — | — | — | 154 | NEWTOWN ACQUISITION OPERATOR LLC |
| Geo | Kind | BR | Amount | As of | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| county 09180 | acs median gross | 0 | $848 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 09180 | acs median gross | 1 | $1,093 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 09180 | acs median gross | 2 | $1,432 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 09180 | acs median gross | 3 | $1,685 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 09180 | acs median gross | 4 | $2,069 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 09180 | acs median gross | 5 | $1,466 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 09180 | acs median gross | $1,365 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| county 09180 | acs recent mover gross | $1,654 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 06382 | acs median gross | 1 | $1,000 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 06382 | acs median gross | 2 | $1,302 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 06382 | acs median gross | 3 | $1,394 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 06382 | acs median gross | 4 | $1,929 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 06382 | acs median gross | $1,172 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 06382 | acs recent mover gross | $889 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zip 06382 | payment standard 110 | 0 | $1,309 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 06382 | payment standard 90 | 0 | $1,071 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 06382 | safmr | 0 | $1,190 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 06382 | payment standard 110 | 1 | $1,518 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 06382 | payment standard 90 | 1 | $1,242 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 06382 | safmr | 1 | $1,380 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 06382 | payment standard 110 | 2 | $1,892 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 06382 | payment standard 90 | 2 | $1,548 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 06382 | safmr | 2 | $1,720 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 06382 | payment standard 110 | 3 | $2,442 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 06382 | payment standard 90 | 3 | $1,998 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 06382 | safmr | 3 | $2,220 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 06382 | payment standard 110 | 4 | $3,025 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 06382 | payment standard 90 | 4 | $2,475 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 06382 | safmr | 4 | $2,750 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |