Screener / 345161

Abernathy Laurels

snfNC

102 Leonard Avenue, Newton, NC 28658 · CCN 345161 · chain EVERYAGE

Composite

12.1 / 100 percentile

Peer group

snf n = 14,684

Evidence depth

deep

Certified beds

174

Model

v1.2

Reads as: riskier than 12.1% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.

Score model5 Components16 CHOW radar1 Distress radar1 Staffing16 Penalties0 Deficiencies3 Licensure0 Ownership58 Related party5 Transactions0 Comps12 Market rent33

Composite explanation

Component	Percentile	Raw	Weight	Weight share	Contribution	Counts
billing conduct	79.5	52.6	0.30	0.2308	18.35	in index
staffing risk	34.0	34.1	0.25	0.1923	6.54	in index
financial risk	13.2	22.0	0.30	0.2308	3.05	in index
chow risk	20.5	20.8	0.15	0.1154	2.37	in index
regulatory risk	3.4	2.1	0.30	0.2308	0.78	in index

weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.

Component scores and registry models

Score type	Score	Grade	Model	Status	Registry model notes
billing conduct	52.6	C	v0.1-pacpuf-snf	default · in composite	R22. PAC PUF SNF 2023. PDPM coding intensity vs acuity, stay length, charge markup.
chow risk	24.9	A	v0.1-pos	default · in composite	Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
chow risk	16.7	A	v0.6	default · in composite
financial risk	22.0	A	v0.5	default · in composite	R18.
p adverse action 12m	0.8	—	v0.1	default · in composite	R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
p chow 12m	0.2	—	v0.1	default · in composite	R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
regulatory risk	2.1	A	v0.3	default · in composite	Deficiency-based, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.5-pos.
staffing risk	34.1	B	v0.3	default · in composite	Cost-report staffing, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.4-pos, which covers ICF/IID from POS.
financial risk	84.6	F	v0.1	superseded	Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
financial risk	64.6	C	v0.2	superseded	Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
financial risk	30.4	B	v0.3	superseded	Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
financial risk	26.5	B	v0.4	superseded	Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
regulatory risk	2.1	A	v0.1	superseded	Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
regulatory risk	2.1	A	v0.2	superseded	Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
staffing risk	34.1	B	v0.1	superseded	Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
staffing risk	34.1	B	v0.2	superseded	Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.

Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.

CHOW radar — 12-month sale probability

full board →

p(CHOW, 12m)

0.2%

model v0.1 · computed 2026-07-29

Percentile among SNFs

41.9

100 = most likely to sell

Holdout AUC

0.874

evaluated before shipping, never refit

Driver	Value	Pull on odds
For-profit ownership	0.00	-1.24
Occupancy	0.96	-0.76
Never sold on record	1.00	+0.62
Current owner tenure (years)	25.00	+0.57
No PBJ staffing report	0.00	+0.42
Ownership changes, last 5 years	0.00	+0.20
Deficiencies, last 12 months	1.00	-0.15
Facility size (log beds)	5.16	-0.13

p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.

Distress radar — 12-month termination probability

full board →

p(termination, 12m)

0.8%

model v0.1 · computed 2026-07-29

Percentile among SNFs

83.3

100 = most likely to lose certification

Holdout AUC

0.971

top decile caught 95% of actual exits

Driver	Value	Pull on odds
For-profit ownership	0.00	+1.62
Deficiencies, last 12 months	1.00	+1.24
Occupancy	0.96	-0.89
Chain size (log)	1.39	+0.39
No PBJ staffing report	0.00	+0.39
Fine amount, 12m (log)	0.00	+0.18
Facility size (log beds)	5.16	-0.17
Total nurse staffing (HPRD)	3.57	-0.15

Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.

Staffing vs peers

2025Q4 HPRD	This facility	NC median	National median	National p25–p75
Total nurse	3.57	3.08	3.28	2.90–3.77
RN	0.58	0.30	0.39	0.25–0.58
Weekend total	3.39	2.93	3.11	—
Weekday total	3.64	3.14	3.35	—

Quarter	Days	Avg census	Total HPRD	RN	LPN	CNA	Weekend	Contract %
2025Q4	92	167.0	3.57	0.58	0.56	2.43	3.39	0.0%
2025Q3	92	162.3	3.77	0.66	0.53	2.58	3.55	0.0%
2025Q2	91	160.5	3.61	0.57	0.58	2.45	3.34	0.0%
2025Q1	90	154.8	3.72	0.57	0.68	2.46	3.50	0.0%
2024Q4	92	153.3	3.62	0.62	0.66	2.34	3.44	0.0%
2024Q3	92	157.3	3.37	0.74	0.50	2.13	3.16	0.0%
2024Q2	91	160.3	3.08	0.68	0.48	1.93	2.89	0.0%
2024Q1	91	157.1	3.13	0.62	0.51	2.00	3.05	0.0%
2023Q4	92	160.9	2.84	0.59	0.49	1.76	2.71	0.0%
2023Q3	92	158.2	2.71	0.55	0.47	1.69	2.63	0.0%
2023Q2	91	148.6	2.96	0.54	0.58	1.84	2.63	0.0%
2023Q1	90	148.1	2.65	0.48	0.48	1.70	2.31	0.0%
2022Q4	92	148.7	2.77	0.54	0.45	1.79	2.41	0.0%
2022Q3	92	144.5	2.83	0.56	0.48	1.79	2.44	0.0%
2022Q2	91	140.1	3.52	0.55	0.53	2.44	2.87	0.0%
2022Q1	90	135.1	3.65	0.63	0.64	2.38	2.81	0.0%

HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.

Penalties

No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.

Deficiencies

D × 2E × 1

deficiencies by survey year

Survey	Type	Tag	Deficiency	Scope	Corrected
2025-09-05	Health	F0689	Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.	D	2025-11-06
2024-07-11	Health	F0578	Honor the resident's right to request, refuse, and/or discontinue treatment, to participate in or refuse to participate in experimental research, and to formulate an advance directive.	D	2024-08-01
2024-07-11	Health	F0695	Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed.	E	2024-08-01

scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.

Licensure actions

No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.

Ownership

Owner	Role	Pct	From	Status	Source
ABERNETHY, JULIUS	CORPORATE DIRECTOR	—	2022-10-01	current	pecos_ownership
ALCORN, GREGORY	CORPORATE DIRECTOR	—	2021-10-01	current	pecos_ownership
BOLICK, LAWRENCE	ADP OF THE SNF	—	2020-10-01	current	pecos_ownership
BRANCH, ANTHONY	ADP OF THE SNF	—	2017-10-01	current	pecos_ownership
CLAPP, KENNETH	CORPORATE DIRECTOR	—	2025-10-01	current	pecos_ownership
ERDMAN, CHARLES	CORPORATE DIRECTOR	—	2024-10-01	current	pecos_ownership
EVERYAGE	DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST	—	—	current	pecos_ownership
EVERYAGE	ADP OF THE SNF	—	2025-12-15	current	pecos_ownership
GILLIAM, JEFFREY J	ADP OF THE SNF	—	2020-10-01	current	pecos_ownership
GRAY, PAUL	ADP OF THE SNF	—	2023-10-01	current	pecos_ownership
HORTON, MICHELLE	ADP OF THE SNF	—	2022-10-01	current	pecos_ownership
HOWELL, PARKER	CORPORATE DIRECTOR	—	2013-10-01	current	pecos_ownership
JONES, ASHLEY	ADP OF THE SNF	—	2015-03-26	current	pecos_ownership
JONES, TAMMY	CORPORATE OFFICER	—	2023-02-01	current	pecos_ownership
LARSON, SEAN	ADP OF THE SNF	—	2019-01-01	current	pecos_ownership
MADDOX, LAMONT	ADP OF THE SNF	—	2024-10-01	current	pecos_ownership
MARCH, MILLS	ADP OF THE SNF	—	2017-10-01	current	pecos_ownership
MCINTOSH, AMBER	ADP OF THE SNF	—	2013-03-11	current	pecos_ownership
REIMANN, AIMEE	CORPORATE OFFICER	—	2013-06-01	current	pecos_ownership
SLOAN, HEATHER	CORPORATE OFFICER	—	2025-04-12	current	pecos_ownership
SMITH, SHANE	CORPORATE DIRECTOR	—	2022-10-01	current	pecos_ownership
STONE, SUSAN	ADP OF THE SNF	—	2025-10-01	current	pecos_ownership
STREET, JODY	ADP OF THE SNF	—	2023-10-01	current	pecos_ownership
SULLIVAN, DIANA	CORPORATE DIRECTOR	—	2024-10-01	current	pecos_ownership
SYRIA, LEE	OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL	—	2013-10-01	current	pecos_ownership
SYRIA, LEE	CORPORATE OFFICER	—	2012-10-01	current	pecos_ownership
THIE, RONALD	ADP OF THE SNF	—	2015-10-01	current	pecos_ownership
TOBIN, CORY	CORPORATE DIRECTOR	—	2020-10-01	current	pecos_ownership
WILEY, MARGARET	CORPORATE DIRECTOR	—	2018-10-01	current	pecos_ownership
WOOD, KATHY	ADP OF THE SNF	—	2024-10-01	current	pecos_ownership
LEE SYRIA	OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL	0%	2013-10-01	ended 2026-05-18	pecos_ownership
AIMEE REIMANN	CORPORATE OFFICER	—	2013-06-01	ended 2026-05-18	pecos_ownership
AMBER MCINTOSH	ADP OF THE SNF	—	2013-03-11	ended 2026-05-18	pecos_ownership
ANTHONY BRANCH	CORPORATE DIRECTOR	—	2017-10-01	ended 2026-05-18	pecos_ownership
ASHLEY JONES	ADP OF THE SNF	—	2015-03-26	ended 2026-05-18	pecos_ownership
CHARLES ERDMAN	CORPORATE DIRECTOR	—	2024-10-01	ended 2026-05-18	pecos_ownership
CORY TOBIN	ADP OF THE SNF	—	2020-10-01	ended 2026-05-18	pecos_ownership
DIANA SULLIVAN	ADP OF THE SNF	—	2024-10-01	ended 2026-05-18	pecos_ownership
GREGORY ALCORN	ADP OF THE SNF	—	2021-10-01	ended 2026-05-18	pecos_ownership
HEATHER SLOAN	CORPORATE OFFICER	—	2025-04-12	ended 2026-05-18	pecos_ownership
JEFFREY J GILLIAM	ADP OF THE SNF	—	2020-10-01	ended 2026-05-18	pecos_ownership
JODY STREET	ADP OF THE SNF	—	2023-10-01	ended 2026-05-18	pecos_ownership
JULIUS ABERNETHY	ADP OF THE SNF	—	2022-10-01	ended 2026-05-18	pecos_ownership
KATHY WOOD	CORPORATE DIRECTOR	—	2024-10-01	ended 2026-05-18	pecos_ownership
KENNETH CLAPP	CORPORATE DIRECTOR	—	2025-10-01	ended 2026-05-18	pecos_ownership
LAMONT MADDOX	ADP OF THE SNF	—	2024-10-01	ended 2026-05-18	pecos_ownership
LAWRENCE BOLICK	CORPORATE DIRECTOR	—	2020-10-01	ended 2026-05-18	pecos_ownership
LEE SYRIA	CORPORATE OFFICER	—	2012-10-01	ended 2026-05-18	pecos_ownership
MARGARET WILEY	ADP OF THE SNF	—	2018-10-01	ended 2026-05-18	pecos_ownership
MICHELLE HORTON	CORPORATE DIRECTOR	—	2022-10-01	ended 2026-05-18	pecos_ownership
MILLS MARCH	CORPORATE DIRECTOR	—	2017-10-01	ended 2026-05-18	pecos_ownership
PARKER HOWELL	CORPORATE DIRECTOR	—	2013-10-01	ended 2026-05-18	pecos_ownership
PAUL GRAY	ADP OF THE SNF	—	2023-10-01	ended 2026-05-18	pecos_ownership
RONALD THIE	ADP OF THE SNF	—	2015-10-01	ended 2026-05-18	pecos_ownership
SEAN LARSON	ADP OF THE SNF	—	2019-01-01	ended 2026-05-18	pecos_ownership
SHANE SMITH	ADP OF THE SNF	—	2022-10-01	ended 2026-05-18	pecos_ownership
SUSAN STONE	ADP OF THE SNF	—	2025-10-01	ended 2026-05-18	pecos_ownership
TAMMY JONES	CORPORATE OFFICER	—	2023-02-01	ended 2026-05-18	pecos_ownership

PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.

Related-party costs

FY end	Total allowable	Rent	Home office	Therapy	Staffing	Counterparties	PropCo
2024-09-30	$2,892,321	—	$1,575,183	$1,317,138	—	6	—
2023-09-30	$2,561,305	—	$1,650,029	$911,276	—	6	—
2022-09-30	$1,486,112	—	$1,486,112	—	—	3	—
2021-09-30	$1,616,138	—	—	—	$87,745	3	—
2020-09-30	$1,486,973	—	$1,486,973	—	—	3	—

Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.

Transactions

No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.

Comparable trades — NC snf

Close	Facility	Price	$/bed	Cap rate	Beds	Buyer
2025-07-15	Juniper Gardens Center for Nursing and Rehabilitat	—	—	—	50	WILKINSON BLVD OPERATING COMPANY, LLC
2025-07-01	Warsaw Rehabilitation and Healthcare Center	—	—	—	100	WARSAW OPCO LLC
2025-06-01	Walnut Cove Health and Rehabilitation	—	—	—	90	511 WINDMILL STREET OPCO LLC
2025-06-01	Wilora Lake Healthcare	—	—	—	70	6001 WILORA LAKE ROAD OPCO LLC
2025-06-01	Clay County Health and Rehabilitation	—	—	—	90	86 VALLEY HIDEAWAY DRIVE OPCO LLC
2025-06-01	Emerald Ridge Health and Rehabilitation	—	—	—	100	25 REYNOLDS MOUNTAIN BOULEVARD OPCO LLC
2025-06-01	Willowbrook Rehabilitation and Care	—	—	—	76	333 EAST LEE AVENUE OPCO LLC
2025-06-01	Westwood Health and Rehabilitation	—	—	—	68	625 ASHLAND STREET OPCO LLC
2025-06-01	Hibriten Mountain Nursing and Rehabilitation	—	—	—	100	2030 HARPER AVENUE OPCO LLC
2025-06-01	Forrest Oakes Healthcare	—	—	—	60	620 HEATHWOOD DRIVE OPCO LLC
2025-06-01	Cardinal Healthcare and Rehabilitation	—	—	—	63	931 NORTH ASPEN STREET OPCO LLC
2025-06-01	Valley View Care and Rehabilitation	—	—	—	76	551 KENT STREET OPCO LLC

Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.

Market rent context

Geo	Kind	BR	Amount	As of	Source
county 37035	acs median gross	0	$818	2024-12-31	CENSUS_ACS5
county 37035	fmr	0	$858	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_FMR
county 37035	acs median gross	1	$887	2024-12-31	CENSUS_ACS5
county 37035	fmr	1	$908	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_FMR
county 37035	acs median gross	2	$923	2024-12-31	CENSUS_ACS5
county 37035	fmr	2	$1,095	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_FMR
county 37035	acs median gross	3	$1,118	2024-12-31	CENSUS_ACS5
county 37035	fmr	3	$1,372	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_FMR
county 37035	acs median gross	4	$1,111	2024-12-31	CENSUS_ACS5
county 37035	fmr	4	$1,660	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_FMR
county 37035	acs median gross		$965	2024-12-31	CENSUS_ACS5
county 37035	acs recent mover gross		$1,197	2024-12-31	CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 28658	acs median gross	1	$911	2024-12-31	CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 28658	acs median gross	2	$886	2024-12-31	CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 28658	acs median gross	3	$1,043	2024-12-31	CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 28658	acs median gross	4	$1,161	2024-12-31	CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 28658	acs median gross		$948	2024-12-31	CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 28658	acs recent mover gross		$992	2024-12-31	CENSUS_ACS5
zip 28658	payment standard 110	0	$1,034	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28658	payment standard 90	0	$846	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28658	safmr	0	$940	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28658	payment standard 110	1	$1,089	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28658	payment standard 90	1	$891	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28658	safmr	1	$990	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28658	payment standard 110	2	$1,320	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28658	payment standard 90	2	$1,080	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28658	safmr	2	$1,200	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28658	payment standard 110	3	$1,650	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28658	payment standard 90	3	$1,350	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28658	safmr	3	$1,500	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28658	payment standard 110	4	$2,002	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28658	payment standard 90	4	$1,638	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28658	safmr	4	$1,820	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_SAFMR

ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.