Reads as: riskier than 93.3% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
7
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+23.9 vs natl
DES 2009 GST TRUST
19 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+22.5 vs natl
BARUCH DAVID
37 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+22.1 vs natl
DES HOLDING CO INC
17 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+22.0 vs natl
CARE ONE MANAGEMENT LLC
16 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+21.8 vs natl
STRAUS DANIEL
37 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+21.5 vs natl
CARE ONE LLC
19 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+21.5 vs natl
DES C 2009 GRAT
19 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
NJ median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
3.15
3.31
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.26
0.35
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
2.96
3.21
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.23
3.37
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
115.5
3.15
0.26
0.86
2.03
2.96
0.0%
2025Q3
92
106.1
3.13
0.30
0.92
1.91
3.01
2.5%
2025Q2
91
105.5
2.94
0.30
0.86
1.78
2.67
0.0%
2025Q1
90
103.2
2.88
0.29
0.79
1.80
2.65
0.0%
2024Q4
92
83.2
3.29
0.36
0.98
1.95
3.10
0.0%
2024Q3
92
94.3
3.20
0.52
1.04
1.64
3.08
0.0%
2024Q2
91
83.8
3.78
0.47
1.22
2.09
3.63
0.0%
2024Q1
91
98.1
3.38
0.41
1.06
1.91
3.22
0.0%
2023Q4
92
92.9
3.43
0.42
1.13
1.89
3.36
0.0%
2023Q3
92
95.8
3.21
0.44
1.01
1.76
3.05
0.0%
2023Q2
91
90.8
3.13
0.45
1.01
1.66
2.88
0.0%
2023Q1
90
96.1
2.89
0.43
0.92
1.55
2.73
0.0%
2022Q4
92
95.2
3.00
0.56
0.91
1.53
2.71
0.0%
2022Q3
92
95.3
2.97
0.57
0.94
1.46
2.62
0.0%
2022Q2
91
95.2
3.23
0.58
1.01
1.64
2.89
8.9%
2022Q1
90
104.0
3.05
0.50
1.02
1.53
2.76
19.3%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
J
2025-05-30
2025-01-07
Health
F0550
Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights.
D
2025-01-31
2025-01-07
Health
F0578
Honor the resident's right to request, refuse, and/or discontinue treatment, to participate in or refuse to participate in experimental research, and to formulate an advance directive.
D
2025-01-31
2025-01-07
Health
F0641
Ensure each resident receives an accurate assessment.
D
2025-01-31
2025-01-07
Health
F0695
Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed.
D
2025-01-31
2025-01-07
Health · complaint
F0698
Provide safe, appropriate dialysis care/services for a resident who requires such services.
D
2025-01-31
2025-01-07
Health
F0755
Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist.
E
2025-01-31
2025-01-07
Health
F0757
Ensure each resident’s drug regimen must be free from unnecessary drugs.
D
2025-01-31
2025-01-07
Health
F0759
Ensure medication error rates are not 5 percent or greater.
E
2025-01-31
2025-01-07
Health
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
E
2025-01-31
2025-01-07
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
F
2025-01-31
2025-01-07
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
F
2025-01-31
2024-11-19
Health · complaint
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
G
2025-01-03
2023-10-13
Health · complaint
F0609
Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities.
D
2023-11-02
2023-10-13
Health
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
D
2023-11-02
2023-10-13
Health
F0686
Provide appropriate pressure ulcer care and prevent new ulcers from developing.
D
2023-11-02
2023-10-13
Health
F0695
Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed.
D
2023-11-02
2023-10-13
Health
F0698
Provide safe, appropriate dialysis care/services for a resident who requires such services.
D
2023-11-03
2023-10-13
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
D
2023-11-03
2022-08-03
Health
F0559
Honor the resident's right to share a room with spouse or roommate of choice and receive written notice before a change is made.
E
2022-08-26
2022-08-03
Health
F0609
Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities.
D
2022-08-26
2022-08-03
Health
F0610
Respond appropriately to all alleged violations.
D
2022-08-26
2022-08-03
Health
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
D
2022-08-26
2022-08-03
Health
F0658
Ensure services provided by the nursing facility meet professional standards of quality.
E
2022-08-26
2022-08-03
Health
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
G
2022-11-01
2022-08-03
Health
F0690
Provide appropriate care for residents who are continent or incontinent of bowel/bladder, appropriate catheter care, and appropriate care to prevent urinary tract infections.
D
2022-08-26
2022-08-03
Health
F0712
Ensure that the resident and his/her doctor meet face-to-face at all required visits.
E
2022-08-26
2022-08-03
Health
F0836
Ensure the facility is licensed under applicable State and local law and operates and provides services in compliance with all applicable Federal, State, and local laws, regulations, and codes, and with accepted professional standards.
E
2022-08-26
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
15
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
CARE ONE LLC
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2004-03-31
current
pecos_ownership
301 UNION STREET LLC
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
43%
2023-01-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
301 UNION STREET LLC
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
43%
2024-01-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
BARUCH, DAVID
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2021-12-01
current
pecos_ownership
CARE ONE MANAGEMENT, LLC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2004-03-31
current
pecos_ownership
DES 2009 GST TRUST
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2021-12-01
current
pecos_ownership
DES HOLDING CO., INC.
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2007-12-16
current
pecos_ownership
DES-C 2009 GRAT
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2009-10-26
current
pecos_ownership
HEALTHBRIDGE MANAGEMENT LLC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2008-07-25
current
pecos_ownership
STRAUS, DANIEL
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2004-03-01
current
pecos_ownership
301 UNION STREET LLC
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
100%
2020-01-01
ended 2020-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
301 UNION STREET LLC
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
100%
2021-01-01
ended 2021-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
301 UNION STREET LLC
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
100%
2022-01-01
ended 2022-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
DANIEL STRAUS
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2004-03-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DAVID BARUCH
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2021-12-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
5
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-12-31
$4,578,671
$2,163,449
—
$-3,700
—
10
propco
2023-12-31
$3,526,229
$1,882,560
—
$138,466
—
10
propco
2022-12-31
$3,384,052
$1,650,792
—
$199,584
—
4
propco
2021-12-31
$3,545,533
$1,475,329
—
$201,186
—
4
propco
2020-12-31
$3,359,333
$898,296
—
$184,298
—
4
propco
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
35
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 34003
acs median gross
0
$1,638
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 34003
fmr
0
$1,778
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 34003
acs median gross
1
$1,698
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 34003
fmr
1
$2,024
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 34003
acs median gross
2
$2,014
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 34003
fmr
2
$2,324
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 34003
acs median gross
3
$2,431
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 34003
fmr
3
$2,835
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 34003
acs median gross
4
$3,170
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 34003
fmr
4
$3,618
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 34003
acs median gross
5
$3,501
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 34003
acs median gross
$1,914
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 34003
acs recent mover gross
$2,373
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 07601
acs median gross
0
$1,627
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 07601
acs median gross
1
$1,839
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 07601
acs median gross
2
$2,172
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 07601
acs median gross
3
$2,325
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 07601
acs median gross
4
$2,255
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 07601
acs median gross
$1,911
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 07601
acs recent mover gross
$2,536
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 07601
payment standard 110
0
$2,101
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 07601
payment standard 90
0
$1,719
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 07601
safmr
0
$1,910
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 07601
payment standard 110
1
$2,398
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 07601
payment standard 90
1
$1,962
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 07601
safmr
1
$2,180
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 07601
payment standard 110
2
$2,750
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 07601
payment standard 90
2
$2,250
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 07601
safmr
2
$2,500
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 07601
payment standard 110
3
$3,355
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 07601
payment standard 90
3
$2,745
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 07601
safmr
3
$3,050
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 07601
payment standard 110
4
$4,279
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 07601
payment standard 90
4
$3,501
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 07601
safmr
4
$3,890
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.