3450 N BUFFALO DR, LAS VEGAS, NV 89129 · CCN 295066 · chain COVENANT CARE LLC
Composite
63.0 / 100 percentile
Peer group
snf n = 14,684
Evidence depth
deep
Certified beds
155
Model
v1.2
Reads as: riskier than 63.0% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
7
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
4 chains
MIDCAP FUNDING IV TRUST
36 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
43% fined
MIDCAP FUNDING IV TRUST
37 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
40% fined
CARNEY KEVIN
15 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
40% fined
LEVIN ROBERT
15 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
40% fined
TOROK ANDREW
15 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
40% fined
EVANS MARY
15 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
40% fined
ASHLEY DAVA
15 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
NV median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
3.48
3.62
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.45
0.64
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
3.36
3.46
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.53
3.68
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
150.6
3.48
0.45
0.99
2.04
3.36
10.3%
2025Q3
92
139.3
2.94
0.51
0.88
1.55
2.83
0.0%
2025Q2
91
125.7
3.42
0.57
0.96
1.89
3.27
0.0%
2025Q1
90
118.8
3.37
0.46
0.95
1.96
3.34
0.0%
2024Q4
92
117.7
3.72
0.53
1.10
2.09
3.60
0.0%
2024Q3
92
121.5
3.55
0.42
1.15
1.99
3.43
0.0%
2024Q2
91
130.7
3.40
0.49
0.96
1.95
3.29
0.0%
2024Q1
91
137.2
3.21
0.47
0.92
1.81
3.02
0.0%
2023Q4
92
136.4
3.29
0.48
0.89
1.93
3.09
0.0%
2023Q3
92
137.8
3.57
0.50
0.96
2.11
3.33
0.0%
2023Q2
91
134.1
3.56
0.41
1.05
2.09
3.32
0.0%
2023Q1
90
140.7
3.35
0.45
1.02
1.88
2.99
0.0%
2022Q4
92
137.8
3.21
0.40
1.08
1.73
2.99
0.0%
2022Q3
92
137.2
3.32
0.43
0.99
1.90
3.18
0.0%
2022Q2
91
134.7
3.47
0.58
0.92
1.98
3.35
0.0%
2022Q1
90
120.9
3.52
0.58
1.01
1.93
3.32
0.0%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0
No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
27
D × 25E × 1F × 1
deficiencies by survey year
Survey
Type
Tag
Deficiency
Scope
Corrected
2025-11-20
Health · complaint
F0607
Develop and implement policies and procedures to prevent abuse, neglect, and theft.
D
2026-01-08
2025-11-20
Health · complaint
F0609
Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities.
D
2026-01-08
2025-08-20
Health
F0552
Ensure that residents are fully informed and understand their health status, care and treatments.
D
2025-10-03
2025-08-20
Health
F0657
Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals.
D
2025-10-03
2025-08-20
Health
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
D
2025-10-03
2025-08-20
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
F
2025-10-03
2025-08-20
Health
F0813
Have a policy regarding use and storage of foods brought to residents by family and other visitors.
D
2025-10-03
2025-08-20
Health
F0842
Safeguard resident-identifiable information and/or maintain medical records on each resident that are in accordance with accepted professional standards.
D
2025-10-03
2025-08-20
Health
F0865
Have a plan that describes the process for conducting QAPI and QAA activities.
D
2025-10-03
2025-08-20
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2025-10-03
2025-02-06
Health · complaint
F0554
Allow residents to self-administer drugs if determined clinically appropriate.
D
2025-02-21
2025-02-06
Health · complaint
F0610
Respond appropriately to all alleged violations.
D
2025-02-21
2025-02-06
Health · complaint
F0624
Prepare residents for a safe transfer or discharge from the nursing home.
D
2025-02-21
2025-02-06
Health · complaint
F0676
Ensure residents do not lose the ability to perform activities of daily living unless there is a medical reason.
D
2025-02-21
2024-09-06
Health
F0677
Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable.
D
2024-09-27
2024-09-06
Health
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
D
2024-09-27
2024-09-06
Health
F0697
Provide safe, appropriate pain management for a resident who requires such services.
D
2024-09-27
2024-09-06
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
E
2024-09-27
2024-09-06
Health
F0813
Have a policy regarding use and storage of foods brought to residents by family and other visitors.
D
2024-09-27
2024-09-06
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2024-09-27
2024-06-14
Health · complaint
F0609
Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities.
D
2024-07-19
2024-06-14
Health · complaint
F0655
Create and put into place a plan for meeting the resident's most immediate needs within 48 hours of being admitted
D
2024-07-19
2024-06-14
Health · complaint
F0677
Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable.
D
2024-07-19
2024-06-14
Health · complaint
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
D
2024-07-29
2024-06-14
Health · complaint
F0686
Provide appropriate pressure ulcer care and prevent new ulcers from developing.
D
2024-07-19
2023-09-29
Health
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
D
2023-11-03
2023-09-29
Health
F0848
Provide a neutral and fair arbitration process and agree to arbitrator and venue.
D
2023-11-03
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
40
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
COVENANT CARE CALIFORNIA, LLC
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2008-07-17
current
pecos_ownership
ASHLEY, DAVA
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2013-11-01
current
pecos_ownership
CARNEY, KEVIN
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2013-11-01
current
pecos_ownership
CENTRE CAPITAL INVESTORS V, LP
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2008-07-17
current
pecos_ownership
CENTRE COVENANT PURCHASER (B), LLC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2008-07-17
current
pecos_ownership
CENTRE COVENANT PURCHASER (Q), LLC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2008-07-17
current
pecos_ownership
CENTRE COVENANT PURCHASER (S), LLC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2008-12-19
current
pecos_ownership
CENTRE V SECONDARY FUND, L.P.
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2008-07-17
current
pecos_ownership
COVENANT CARE, LLC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2008-07-17
current
pecos_ownership
COVENANT HOLDCO, LLC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2008-07-17
current
pecos_ownership
COVENANT SUBCO, LLC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2008-07-17
current
pecos_ownership
EVANS, MARY
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2008-07-17
current
pecos_ownership
EVANS, MARY
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2013-11-01
current
pecos_ownership
HASSELL, LANCE
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2018-05-17
current
pecos_ownership
LEVIN, ROBERT
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2008-07-17
current
pecos_ownership
LEVIN, ROBERT
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2000-10-05
current
pecos_ownership
LEVIN, ROBERT
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2013-11-01
current
pecos_ownership
MIDCAP FUNDING IV TRUST
5% OR GREATER SECURITY INTEREST
—
2014-02-20
current
pecos_ownership
SIMS, CHRISTINE
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2006-12-08
current
pecos_ownership
SIMS, CHRISTINE
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2008-07-17
current
pecos_ownership
SIMS, CHRISTINE
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2013-11-01
current
pecos_ownership
SPARKS, CAROL
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2008-09-02
current
pecos_ownership
STATE TREASURER OF MICH CUSTODIAN OF PUBLIC SCHOOL EMPL RTMNT SYSTEMS
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2008-12-19
current
pecos_ownership
STOCKWELL FUND II LP
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2008-12-19
current
pecos_ownership
TOROK, ANDREW
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2013-11-01
current
pecos_ownership
TOROK, ANDREW
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2008-07-17
current
pecos_ownership
LANCE HASSELL
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
100%
2018-05-17
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ROBERT LEVIN
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
13%
2008-07-17
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ANDREW TOROK
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
11%
2008-07-17
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CHRISTINE SIMS
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
11%
2008-07-17
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MARY EVANS
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
11%
2008-07-17
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ANDREW TOROK
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2013-11-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CAROL SPARKS
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2008-09-02
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CHRISTINE SIMS
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2006-12-08
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CHRISTINE SIMS
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2013-11-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DAVA ASHLEY
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2013-11-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
KEVIN CARNEY
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2013-11-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MARY EVANS
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2013-11-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ROBERT LEVIN
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2013-11-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ROBERT LEVIN
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2000-10-05
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
5
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-12-31
$1,894,580
—
—
—
$89,656
2
—
2023-12-31
$3,118,553
—
—
$1,321,368
$118,041
3
—
2022-12-31
$3,244,713
—
—
$1,514,869
$101,794
3
—
2021-12-31
$3,006,413
—
—
$1,500,966
$86,594
3
—
2020-12-31
$3,302,718
—
—
$1,571,661
$143,450
3
—
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
36
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 32003
acs median gross
0
$1,218
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 32003
fmr
0
$1,333
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 32003
acs median gross
1
$1,308
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 32003
fmr
1
$1,478
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 32003
acs median gross
2
$1,553
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 32003
fmr
2
$1,735
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 32003
acs median gross
3
$1,908
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 32003
fmr
3
$2,413
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 32003
acs median gross
4
$2,227
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 32003
fmr
4
$2,764
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 32003
acs median gross
5
$2,581
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 32003
acs median gross
$1,626
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 32003
acs recent mover gross
$1,755
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 89129
acs median gross
0
$1,477
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 89129
acs median gross
1
$1,464
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 89129
acs median gross
2
$1,687
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 89129
acs median gross
3
$2,018
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 89129
acs median gross
4
$2,271
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 89129
acs median gross
5
$2,954
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 89129
acs median gross
$1,852
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 89129
acs recent mover gross
$1,947
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 89129
payment standard 110
0
$1,606
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 89129
payment standard 90
0
$1,314
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 89129
safmr
0
$1,460
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 89129
payment standard 110
1
$1,782
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 89129
payment standard 90
1
$1,458
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 89129
safmr
1
$1,620
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 89129
payment standard 110
2
$2,090
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 89129
payment standard 90
2
$1,710
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 89129
safmr
2
$1,900
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 89129
payment standard 110
3
$2,904
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 89129
payment standard 90
3
$2,376
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 89129
safmr
3
$2,640
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 89129
payment standard 110
4
$3,333
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 89129
payment standard 90
4
$2,727
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 89129
safmr
4
$3,030
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.