Reads as: riskier than 90.7% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
14
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+30.5 vs natl
MAZE FAMILY LIMITED PARTNERSHIP
5 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+28.5 vs natl
CHARLY BELLO FAMILY LIMITED PARTNERSHIP
6 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+28.0 vs natl
MAHRT DAVID
11 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+23.0 vs natl
MYERS WALTER
22 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+21.9 vs natl
SWAIN JARED
19 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+20.7 vs natl
COTTONWOOD HEALTHCARE LLC
22 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+20.0 vs natl
MYERS KATIE
16 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
55% fined
MAHRT DAVID
11 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
50% fined
MYERS KATIE
16 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
47% fined
SWAIN JARED
19 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
47% fined
SWAIN HOLLY
15 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
41% fined
MYERS WALTER
22 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
41% fined
COTTONWOOD HEALTHCARE LLC
22 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
40% fined
MAZE FAMILY LIMITED PARTNERSHIP
5 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
NV median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
2.48
3.62
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.58
0.64
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
2.41
3.46
3.11
—
Weekday total
2.50
3.68
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
89.3
2.48
0.58
0.46
1.44
2.41
0.0%
2025Q3
92
88.9
2.40
0.54
0.47
1.39
2.29
0.0%
2025Q2
91
83.0
2.56
0.52
0.41
1.63
2.42
0.0%
2025Q1
90
80.8
2.65
0.53
0.37
1.75
2.56
0.0%
2024Q4
92
80.2
2.62
0.47
0.38
1.77
2.44
0.0%
2024Q3
92
80.2
2.57
0.48
0.32
1.77
2.30
0.0%
2024Q2
91
79.7
2.22
0.43
0.26
1.53
2.10
0.0%
2024Q1
91
75.7
3.01
0.66
0.41
1.94
2.66
13.8%
2023Q4
92
72.5
3.18
0.67
0.43
2.08
2.80
20.4%
2023Q3
92
65.9
3.54
0.86
0.36
2.32
3.15
28.9%
2023Q2
91
63.9
3.40
0.81
0.39
2.19
2.97
31.8%
2023Q1
90
63.5
3.09
0.70
0.44
1.95
2.78
16.2%
2022Q4
92
61.6
2.98
0.83
0.29
1.86
2.49
4.6%
2022Q3
92
56.7
3.18
0.94
0.29
1.95
2.78
0.7%
2022Q2
91
55.9
3.46
1.20
0.29
1.98
3.08
0.0%
2022Q1
90
51.8
3.76
1.33
0.36
2.07
3.48
0.0%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0
No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
32
B × 2D × 23E × 3F × 4
deficiencies by survey year
Survey
Type
Tag
Deficiency
Scope
Corrected
2025-08-07
Health
F0550
Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights.
D
2025-09-19
2025-08-07
Health
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
D
2025-09-19
2025-08-07
Health
F0698
Provide safe, appropriate dialysis care/services for a resident who requires such services.
D
2025-09-19
2025-08-07
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
E
2025-09-19
2025-08-07
Health
F0842
Safeguard resident-identifiable information and/or maintain medical records on each resident that are in accordance with accepted professional standards.
D
2025-09-19
2025-08-07
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2025-09-19
2025-08-07
Health
F0881
Implement a program that monitors antibiotic use.
F
2025-09-19
2025-08-07
Health
F0887
Educate residents and staff on COVID-19 vaccination, offer the COVID-19 vaccine to eligible residents and staff after education, and properly document each resident and staff member's vaccination status.
D
2025-09-19
2024-07-18
Health · complaint
F0558
Reasonably accommodate the needs and preferences of each resident.
D
2024-09-01
2024-07-18
Health
F0577
Allow residents to easily view the nursing home's survey results and communicate with advocate agencies.
B
2024-09-01
2024-07-18
Health
F0609
Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities.
D
2024-09-01
2024-07-18
Health
F0657
Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals.
D
2024-09-01
2024-07-18
Health
F0690
Provide appropriate care for residents who are continent or incontinent of bowel/bladder, appropriate catheter care, and appropriate care to prevent urinary tract infections.
D
2024-09-01
2024-07-18
Health
F0691
Provide appropriate colostomy, urostomy, or ileostomy care/services for a resident who requires such services.
D
2024-09-01
2024-07-18
Health
F0695
Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed.
D
2024-09-01
2024-07-18
Health
F0698
Provide safe, appropriate dialysis care/services for a resident who requires such services.
D
2024-09-01
2024-07-18
Health
F0726
Ensure that nurses and nurse aides have the appropriate competencies to care for every resident in a way that maximizes each resident's well being.
E
2024-09-01
2024-07-18
Health
F0732
Post nurse staffing information every day.
B
2024-09-01
2024-07-18
Health
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
D
2024-09-01
2024-07-18
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
F
2024-09-01
2024-07-18
Health
F0842
Safeguard resident-identifiable information and/or maintain medical records on each resident that are in accordance with accepted professional standards.
D
2024-09-01
2024-07-18
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
F
2024-09-01
2024-07-18
Health
F0881
Implement a program that monitors antibiotic use.
F
2024-09-01
2024-07-18
Health
F0882
Designate a qualified infection preventionist to be responsible for the infection prevent and control program in the nursing home.
E
2024-09-01
2024-07-18
Health
F0883
Develop and implement policies and procedures for flu and pneumonia vaccinations.
D
2024-09-01
2023-05-18
Health
F0609
Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities.
D
2023-06-30
2023-05-18
Health
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
D
2023-06-30
2023-05-18
Health
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
D
2023-06-30
2023-05-18
Health
F0756
Ensure a licensed pharmacist perform a monthly drug regimen review, including the medical chart, following irregularity reporting guidelines in developed policies and procedures.
D
2023-06-30
2023-05-18
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
D
2023-06-30
2023-05-18
Health
F0883
Develop and implement policies and procedures for flu and pneumonia vaccinations.
D
2023-06-30
2023-05-18
Health
F0887
Educate residents and staff on COVID-19 vaccination, offer the COVID-19 vaccine to eligible residents and staff after education, and properly document each resident and staff member's vaccination status.
D
2023-06-30
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
20
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
BANFORD, ANDREW
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-04-18
current
pecos_ownership
CHARLY BELLO FAMILY LIMITED PARTNERSHIP
DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2024-04-18
current
pecos_ownership
COTTONWOOD HEALTHCARE LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-04-18
current
pecos_ownership
HIGHLAND MANOR OF ELKO HOLDINGS LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-08-15
current
pecos_ownership
MAHRT, DAVID
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2024-04-18
current
pecos_ownership
MAZE FAMILY LIMITED PARTNERSHIP
DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2024-04-18
current
pecos_ownership
MYERS, KATIE
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2024-04-18
current
pecos_ownership
MYERS, WALTER
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-04-18
current
pecos_ownership
PICKD LLC
DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2024-04-18
current
pecos_ownership
ROGERS, ANDREW
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-04-18
current
pecos_ownership
SLATTERY & HOLMAN P.C.
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-04-18
current
pecos_ownership
SWAIN, HOLLY
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2024-04-18
current
pecos_ownership
SWAIN, JARED
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2024-04-18
current
pecos_ownership
KATIE MYERS
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
24%
2024-04-18
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
WALTER MYERS
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
24%
2024-04-18
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
HOLLY SWAIN
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
17%
2024-04-18
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JARED SWAIN
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
17%
2024-04-18
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DAVID MAHRT
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
15%
2024-04-18
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ANDREW BANFORD
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-04-18
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ANDREW ROGERS
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-04-18
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
5
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-04-17
$112,893
—
$112,893
—
—
2
—
2023-09-30
$182,874
—
$182,874
—
—
2
—
2022-09-30
$112,284
—
$112,284
—
—
2
—
2021-09-30
$93,627
—
$93,627
—
—
2
—
2020-09-30
$132,222
—
$132,222
—
—
2
—
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
36
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 32007
acs median gross
0
$843
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 32007
fmr
0
$1,055
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 32007
acs median gross
1
$862
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 32007
fmr
1
$1,166
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 32007
acs median gross
2
$1,153
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 32007
fmr
2
$1,530
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 32007
acs median gross
3
$1,523
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 32007
fmr
3
$1,933
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 32007
acs median gross
4
$2,016
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 32007
fmr
4
$2,567
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 32007
acs median gross
5
$1,250
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 32007
acs median gross
$1,164
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 32007
acs recent mover gross
$1,148
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 89801
acs median gross
0
$819
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 89801
acs median gross
1
$920
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 89801
acs median gross
2
$1,279
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 89801
acs median gross
3
$1,589
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 89801
acs median gross
4
$2,182
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 89801
acs median gross
5
$1,250
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 89801
acs median gross
$1,276
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 89801
acs recent mover gross
$1,204
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 89801
payment standard 110
0
$1,177
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 89801
payment standard 90
0
$963
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 89801
safmr
0
$1,070
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 89801
payment standard 110
1
$1,298
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 89801
payment standard 90
1
$1,062
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 89801
safmr
1
$1,180
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 89801
payment standard 110
2
$1,705
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 89801
payment standard 90
2
$1,395
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 89801
safmr
2
$1,550
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 89801
payment standard 110
3
$2,156
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 89801
payment standard 90
3
$1,764
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 89801
safmr
3
$1,960
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 89801
payment standard 110
4
$2,860
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 89801
payment standard 90
4
$2,340
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 89801
safmr
4
$2,600
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.