Composite
19.5 / 100 percentile
| Component | Percentile | Raw | Weight | Weight share | Contribution | Counts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| financial risk | 63.9 | 54.9 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 14.75 | in index |
| regulatory risk | 44.0 | 32.8 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 10.15 | in index |
| billing conduct | 17.8 | 22.2 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 4.11 | in index |
| chow risk | 34.6 | 33.2 | 0.15 | 0.1154 | 3.99 | in index |
| staffing risk | 14.8 | 14.9 | 0.25 | 0.1923 | 2.85 | in index |
| Score type | Score | Grade | Model | Status | Registry model notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| billing conduct | 22.2 | A | v0.1-pacpuf-snf | default · in composite | R22. PAC PUF SNF 2023. PDPM coding intensity vs acuity, stay length, charge markup. |
| chow risk | 25.0 | B | v0.1-pos | default · in composite | Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure. |
| chow risk | 41.4 | B | v0.6 | default · in composite | |
| financial risk | 54.9 | C | v0.5 | default · in composite | R18. |
| p adverse action 12m | 0.0 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite. |
| p chow 12m | 0.0 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite. |
| regulatory risk | 32.8 | B | v0.3 | default · in composite | Deficiency-based, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.5-pos. |
| staffing risk | 14.9 | A | v0.3 | default · in composite | Cost-report staffing, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.4-pos, which covers ICF/IID from POS. |
| financial risk | 67.3 | D | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 47.3 | C | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 53.1 | C | v0.3 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 58.5 | C | v0.4 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 32.7 | B | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 32.7 | B | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 14.9 | A | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 14.9 | A | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current owner tenure (years) | 1.28 | -1.72 | |
| Never sold on record | 0.00 | -1.62 | |
| Ownership changes, last 5 years | 1.00 | -0.87 | |
| For-profit ownership | 1.00 | +0.69 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.42 | |
| Occupancy | 0.77 | -0.22 | |
| Total nurse staffing (HPRD) | 4.11 | -0.21 | |
| Facility size (log beds) | 5.49 | -0.18 |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| For-profit ownership | 1.00 | -0.69 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.39 | |
| Total nurse staffing (HPRD) | 4.11 | -0.38 | |
| Chain size (log) | 2.56 | -0.29 | |
| Never sold on record | 0.00 | -0.28 | |
| Current owner tenure (years) | 1.28 | -0.28 | |
| Staffing trend, last 4 quarters | 0.64 | +0.27 | |
| Deficiencies, last 12 months | 9.00 | -0.24 |
| 2025Q4 HPRD | This facility | NV median | National median | National p25–p75 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total nurse | 4.11 | 3.62 | 3.28 | 2.90–3.77 |
| RN | 0.51 | 0.64 | 0.39 | 0.25–0.58 |
| Weekend total | 4.01 | 3.46 | 3.11 | — |
| Weekday total | 4.15 | 3.68 | 3.35 | — |
| Quarter | Days | Avg census | Total HPRD | RN | LPN | CNA | Weekend | Contract % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025Q4 | 92 | 186.9 | 4.11 | 0.51 | 1.07 | 2.53 | 4.01 | 0.0% |
| 2025Q3 | 92 | 198.1 | 3.59 | 0.37 | 0.95 | 2.28 | 3.47 | 0.0% |
| 2025Q2 | 91 | 194.8 | 3.47 | 0.40 | 0.85 | 2.21 | 3.38 | 0.0% |
| 2025Q1 | 90 | 185.6 | 3.53 | 0.40 | 0.88 | 2.25 | 3.42 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q4 | 92 | 185.4 | 3.47 | 0.35 | 0.92 | 2.21 | 3.40 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q3 | 92 | 174.8 | 3.58 | 0.34 | 0.94 | 2.30 | 3.48 | 1.7% |
| 2024Q2 | 91 | 160.2 | 3.88 | 0.34 | 1.07 | 2.48 | 3.77 | 8.3% |
| 2024Q1 | 91 | 165.8 | 3.78 | 0.30 | 1.05 | 2.43 | 3.71 | 9.5% |
| 2023Q4 | 92 | 160.5 | 3.78 | 0.31 | 1.03 | 2.44 | 3.69 | 8.8% |
| 2023Q3 | 92 | 163.6 | 3.55 | 0.30 | 1.02 | 2.23 | 3.56 | 9.4% |
| 2023Q2 | 91 | 165.5 | 3.40 | 0.29 | 1.00 | 2.10 | 3.38 | 15.2% |
| 2023Q1 | 90 | 166.0 | 3.55 | 0.33 | 0.99 | 2.23 | 3.49 | 20.4% |
| 2022Q4 | 92 | 162.3 | 3.51 | 0.37 | 0.94 | 2.20 | 3.44 | 18.6% |
| 2022Q3 | 92 | 147.6 | 3.41 | 0.38 | 0.85 | 2.18 | 3.31 | 13.2% |
| 2022Q2 | 91 | 136.4 | 3.62 | 0.38 | 0.94 | 2.31 | 3.45 | 21.7% |
| 2022Q1 | 90 | 132.0 | 3.66 | 0.41 | 0.97 | 2.28 | 3.54 | 25.4% |
| Survey | Type | Tag | Deficiency | Scope | Corrected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-13 | Health · complaint | F0609 | Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities. | D | — |
| 2025-09-26 | Health | F0552 | Ensure that residents are fully informed and understand their health status, care and treatments. | D | 2025-12-05 |
| 2025-09-26 | Health | F0637 | Assess the resident when there is a significant change in condition | D | 2025-12-05 |
| 2025-09-26 | Health | F0657 | Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals. | D | 2025-12-05 |
| 2025-09-26 | Health | F0677 | Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable. | D | 2025-12-05 |
| 2025-09-26 | Health | F0686 | Provide appropriate pressure ulcer care and prevent new ulcers from developing. | D | 2025-12-05 |
| 2025-09-26 | Health | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | D | 2025-12-05 |
| 2025-09-26 | Health | F0813 | Have a policy regarding use and storage of foods brought to residents by family and other visitors. | D | 2025-12-05 |
| 2025-09-26 | Health | F0921 | Make sure that the nursing home area is safe, easy to use, clean and comfortable for residents, staff and the public. | D | 2025-12-05 |
| 2025-05-22 | Health · complaint | F0600 | Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody. | D | 2025-05-22 |
| 2025-05-22 | Health · complaint | F0755 | Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist. | D | 2025-06-17 |
| 2025-05-22 | Health · complaint | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | E | 2025-06-17 |
| 2024-09-27 | Health | F0561 | Honor the resident's right to and the facility must promote and facilitate resident self-determination through support of resident choice. | D | 2024-11-07 |
| 2024-09-27 | Health · complaint | F0641 | Ensure each resident receives an accurate assessment. | D | 2024-11-07 |
| 2024-09-27 | Health | F0644 | Coordinate assessments with the pre-admission screening and resident review program; and referring for services as needed. | D | 2024-11-07 |
| 2024-09-27 | Health | F0656 | Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured. | D | 2024-11-07 |
| 2024-09-27 | Health | F0686 | Provide appropriate pressure ulcer care and prevent new ulcers from developing. | D | 2024-11-07 |
| 2024-09-27 | Health · complaint | F0692 | Provide enough food/fluids to maintain a resident's health. | D | 2024-11-07 |
| 2024-09-27 | Health | F0693 | Ensure that feeding tubes are not used unless there is a medical reason and the resident agrees; and provide appropriate care for a resident with a feeding tube. | D | 2024-11-07 |
| 2024-09-27 | Health | F0694 | Provide for the safe, appropriate administration of IV fluids for a resident when needed. | D | 2024-11-07 |
| 2024-09-27 | Health | F0695 | Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed. | D | 2024-11-07 |
| 2024-09-27 | Health | F0730 | Observe each nurse aide's job performance and give regular training. | D | 2024-11-07 |
| 2024-09-27 | Health | F0758 | Implement gradual dose reductions(GDR) and non-pharmacological interventions, unless contraindicated, prior to initiating or instead of continuing psychotropic medication; and PRN orders for psychotropic medications are only used when the medication is necessary and PRN use is limited. | E | 2024-11-07 |
| 2024-09-27 | Health | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | D | 2024-11-07 |
| 2023-06-16 | Health | F0554 | Allow residents to self-administer drugs if determined clinically appropriate. | D | 2023-07-18 |
| 2023-06-16 | Health | F0656 | Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured. | D | 2023-07-18 |
| 2023-06-16 | Health | F0684 | Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals. | D | 2023-07-18 |
| 2023-06-16 | Health | F0688 | Provide appropriate care for a resident to maintain and/or improve range of motion (ROM), limited ROM and/or mobility, unless a decline is for a medical reason. | D | 2023-07-18 |
| 2023-06-16 | Health | F0694 | Provide for the safe, appropriate administration of IV fluids for a resident when needed. | D | 2023-07-18 |
| 2023-06-16 | Health | F0697 | Provide safe, appropriate pain management for a resident who requires such services. | D | 2023-07-18 |
| 2023-06-16 | Health | F0698 | Provide safe, appropriate dialysis care/services for a resident who requires such services. | D | 2023-07-18 |
| 2023-06-16 | Health | F0755 | Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist. | D | 2023-07-18 |
| 2023-06-16 | Health | F0761 | Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs. | D | 2023-07-18 |
| 2023-06-16 | Health | F0920 | Provide at least one room set aside to use as a resident dining room and for activities, that is a good size, with good lighting, air flow and furniture. | E | 2023-07-18 |
| Owner | Role | Pct | From | Status | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HENDERSON DELMAR NV PROPCO LLC | Other (financial or non-financial) | 100% | 2024-04-01 | current | hcris_a_8_1 |
| HENDERSON NV OPCO HOLDCO LLC | 5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 100% | 2025-04-17 | current | pecos_ownership |
| DELMAR GARDENS ENTERPRISES INC. | Other (financial or non-financial) | — | 2023-04-01 | current | hcris_a_8_1 |
| DELMAR GARDENS OF GREEN VALLEY INC. | Other (financial or non-financial) | — | 2024-04-01 | current | hcris_a_8_1 |
| ISKEB 2024 TRUST | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2025-04-17 | current | pecos_ownership |
| NBH BANK | 5% OR GREATER SECURITY INTEREST | — | 2025-04-17 | current | pecos_ownership |
| RAMI, ISAAC | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2025-04-17 | current | pecos_ownership |
| DELMAR GARDENS ENTERPRISES INC. | Other (financial or non-financial) | 100% | 2020-04-01 | ended 2021-03-31 | hcris_a_8_1 |
| DELMAR GARDENS ENTERPRISES INC. | Other (financial or non-financial) | — | 2021-04-01 | ended 2022-03-31 | hcris_a_8_1 |
| DELMAR GARDENS ENTERPRISES INC. | Other (financial or non-financial) | — | 2022-04-01 | ended 2023-03-31 | hcris_a_8_1 |
| ISAAC RAMI | MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY | — | 2025-04-17 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| Close date | Price | Buyer | Seller | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-17 | — | HENDERSON DELMAR NV OPCO LLC | DELMAR GARDENS OF GREEN VALLEY OPERATING, LLC | chow |
| Close | Facility | Price | $/bed | Cap rate | Beds | Buyer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-17 | OASIS NURSING & REHAB OF GREEN VALLEYthis facility | — | — | — | 242 | HENDERSON DELMAR NV OPCO LLC |
| 2024-08-01 | NORTHERN NEVADA STATE VETERANS HOME | — | — | — | 96 | DIMENSIONS MANAGEMENT OF NORTHERN NEVADA LLC |
| 2024-04-18 | HIGHLAND MANOR OF ELKO REHABILITATION LLC | — | — | — | 146 | HIGHLAND MANOR OF ELKO REHABILITATION LLC |
| 2024-04-18 | HIGHLAND MANOR OF FALLON REHABILITATION LLC | — | — | — | 102 | HIGHLAND MANOR OF FALLON REHABILITATION LLC |
| 2024-04-18 | HIGHLAND MANOR OF MESQUITE REHABILITATION LLC | — | — | — | 112 | HIGHLAND MANOR OF MESQUITE REHABILITATION LLC |
| 2024-01-01 | HEARTHSTONE | — | — | — | 125 | TRUCKEE MEADOWS HEALTHCARE, INC. |
| 2023-09-07 | TLC CARE CENTER | — | — | — | 255 | TLC SNF OPERATIONS LLC |
| 2023-08-31 | PAHRUMP HEALTH AND REHABILITATION CENTER | — | — | — | 120 | PAHRUMP SNF OPERATIONS, LLC |
| 2023-08-31 | MOUNTAIN VIEW HEALTH AND REHABILITATION | — | — | — | 146 | MV SNF OPERATIONS LLC |
| 2023-08-31 | GARDNERVILLE HEALTH & REHABILITATION CENTER | — | — | — | 60 | GARDNERVILLE SNF OPERATIONS LLC |
| 2023-08-31 | ORMSBY POST ACUTE REHABILITATION | — | — | — | 120 | ORMSBY SNF OPERATIONS LLC |
| 2023-06-01 | MOUNTAIN VIEW CARE CENTER | — | — | — | 87 | BOULDER CITY NV OPCO LLC |
| Geo | Kind | BR | Amount | As of | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| county 32003 | acs median gross | 0 | $1,218 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 32003 | fmr | 0 | $1,333 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 32003 | acs median gross | 1 | $1,308 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 32003 | fmr | 1 | $1,478 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 32003 | acs median gross | 2 | $1,553 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 32003 | fmr | 2 | $1,735 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 32003 | acs median gross | 3 | $1,908 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 32003 | fmr | 3 | $2,413 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 32003 | acs median gross | 4 | $2,227 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 32003 | fmr | 4 | $2,764 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 32003 | acs median gross | 5 | $2,581 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 32003 | acs median gross | $1,626 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| county 32003 | acs recent mover gross | $1,755 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 89074 | acs median gross | 0 | $1,593 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 89074 | acs median gross | 1 | $1,733 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 89074 | acs median gross | 2 | $1,780 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 89074 | acs median gross | 3 | $2,140 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 89074 | acs median gross | 4 | $2,291 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 89074 | acs median gross | 5 | $3,144 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 89074 | acs median gross | $1,883 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 89074 | acs recent mover gross | $1,934 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zip 89074 | payment standard 110 | 0 | $1,793 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 89074 | payment standard 90 | 0 | $1,467 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 89074 | safmr | 0 | $1,630 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 89074 | payment standard 110 | 1 | $1,991 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 89074 | payment standard 90 | 1 | $1,629 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 89074 | safmr | 1 | $1,810 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 89074 | payment standard 110 | 2 | $2,332 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 89074 | payment standard 90 | 2 | $1,908 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 89074 | safmr | 2 | $2,120 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 89074 | payment standard 110 | 3 | $3,245 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 89074 | payment standard 90 | 3 | $2,655 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 89074 | safmr | 3 | $2,950 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 89074 | payment standard 110 | 4 | $3,718 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 89074 | payment standard 90 | 4 | $3,042 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 89074 | safmr | 4 | $3,380 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |