Reads as: riskier than 71.0% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
1
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
50% fined
MORGAN DANIEL
10 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
NC median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
2.77
3.08
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.11
0.30
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
2.76
2.93
3.11
—
Weekday total
2.77
3.14
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
72.6
2.77
0.11
0.98
1.67
2.76
0.0%
2025Q3
92
68.2
2.88
0.19
0.96
1.73
2.77
0.0%
2025Q2
91
73.4
2.77
0.17
0.95
1.64
2.58
0.0%
2025Q1
90
74.2
2.63
0.17
0.86
1.60
2.43
0.0%
2024Q4
92
73.9
2.72
0.20
0.85
1.67
2.46
0.0%
2024Q3
92
76.2
2.70
0.21
0.89
1.60
2.45
0.0%
2024Q2
91
75.2
2.71
0.26
0.85
1.60
2.32
0.0%
2024Q1
91
73.2
2.84
0.22
0.97
1.65
2.40
0.0%
2023Q4
92
67.9
3.15
0.19
1.08
1.87
2.70
0.0%
2023Q3
92
72.8
2.92
0.17
0.96
1.79
2.62
0.0%
2023Q2
91
73.2
2.70
0.19
0.90
1.61
2.41
0.0%
2023Q1
90
72.7
2.74
0.25
0.70
1.79
2.54
0.3%
2022Q4
92
71.8
2.86
0.30
0.65
1.91
2.65
0.0%
2022Q3
92
70.5
2.28
0.21
0.71
1.36
2.08
0.0%
2022Q2
91
67.2
1.85
0.22
0.49
1.14
1.78
0.0%
2022Q1
90
70.2
2.00
0.20
0.64
1.16
1.91
0.0%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Reasonably accommodate the needs and preferences of each resident.
D
2025-12-01
2025-11-18
Health
F0641
Ensure each resident receives an accurate assessment.
D
2025-11-25
2025-11-18
Health
F0644
Coordinate assessments with the pre-admission screening and resident review program; and referring for services as needed.
D
2025-04-04
2025-11-18
Health
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
D
2025-12-01
2025-11-18
Health
F0657
Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals.
D
2025-12-01
2025-11-18
Health
F0658
Ensure services provided by the nursing facility meet professional standards of quality.
D
2025-12-01
2025-11-18
Health
F0688
Provide appropriate care for a resident to maintain and/or improve range of motion (ROM), limited ROM and/or mobility, unless a decline is for a medical reason.
D
2025-12-01
2025-11-18
Health · complaint
F0695
Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed.
D
2025-12-01
2025-11-18
Health
F0700
Try different approaches before using a bed rail. If a bed rail is needed, the facility must (1) assess a resident for safety risk; (2) review these risks and benefits with the resident/representative; (3) get informed consent; and (4) Correctly install and maintain the bed rail.
D
2025-12-06
2025-11-18
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2025-12-01
2024-09-04
Health
F0604
Ensure that each resident is free from the use of physical restraints, unless needed for medical treatment.
D
2024-09-21
2024-09-04
Health
F0637
Assess the resident when there is a significant change in condition
D
2024-09-21
2024-09-04
Health
F0641
Ensure each resident receives an accurate assessment.
D
2024-09-21
2024-09-04
Health · complaint
F0677
Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable.
D
2024-09-21
2024-09-04
Health · complaint
F0760
Ensure that residents are free from significant medication errors.
J
2023-10-30
2024-09-04
Health
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
D
2024-09-21
2024-09-04
Health · complaint
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2024-09-21
2024-01-26
Health · complaint
F0584
Honor the resident's right to a safe, clean, comfortable and homelike environment, including but not limited to receiving treatment and supports for daily living safely.
E
2024-02-22
2024-01-26
Health · complaint
F0660
Plan the resident's discharge to meet the resident's goals and needs.
D
2024-02-22
2024-01-26
Health · complaint
F0695
Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed.
D
2024-02-22
2024-01-26
Health · complaint
F0755
Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist.
E
2024-02-22
2024-01-26
Health · complaint
F0770
Provide timely, quality laboratory services/tests to meet the needs of residents.
D
2024-02-22
2023-07-12
Health · complaint
F0745
Provide medically-related social services to help each resident achieve the highest possible quality of life.
E
2023-08-08
2023-07-12
Health · complaint
F0836
Ensure the facility is licensed under applicable State and local law and operates and provides services in compliance with all applicable Federal, State, and local laws, regulations, and codes, and with accepted professional standards.
F
2023-08-08
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
23
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
CLARKE, WENDY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-06-01
current
pecos_ownership
CSE KNIGHTDALE LP
5% OR GREATER SECURITY INTEREST
—
2025-05-01
current
pecos_ownership
HOBACK, TIFFANY
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-05-01
current
pecos_ownership
JONES, TEQUILLA
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-05-01
current
pecos_ownership
KNIGHTDALE PARENTCO LLC
DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2025-06-01
current
pecos_ownership
MORGAN, DANIEL
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2025-05-01
current
pecos_ownership
NCOP HOLDCO LLC
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2025-06-01
current
pecos_ownership
NU C II IRREVOCABLE TRUST
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2025-06-01
current
pecos_ownership
NU C IRREVOCABLE TRUST
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2025-06-01
current
pecos_ownership
O BRIEN, PATRICK
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-05-01
current
pecos_ownership
SNF CARE CENTERS LLC
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2025-06-01
current
pecos_ownership
SNF MGR LLC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-05-01
current
pecos_ownership
SNF MGR LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-04-14
current
pecos_ownership
WAKE HOLDCO LLC
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2025-06-01
current
pecos_ownership
WARRICK, GLORIA
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-05-01
current
pecos_ownership
ZENITH HOLDCO II LLC
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2025-06-01
current
pecos_ownership
ZENITH HOLDCO LLC
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2025-06-01
current
pecos_ownership
DANIEL MORGAN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-05-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
GLORIA WARRICK
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-05-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PATRICK O BRIEN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-05-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
TEQUILLA JONES
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-05-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
TIFFANY HOBACK
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-05-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
WENDY CLARKE
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-06-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
5
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-12-31
$433,262
—
—
—
—
3
—
2023-12-31
$419,121
—
—
—
—
3
—
2022-12-31
$357,875
—
—
—
—
3
—
2021-12-31
$350,110
—
—
—
—
4
—
2020-12-31
$355,064
—
—
—
—
2
—
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
35
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 37183
acs median gross
0
$1,390
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 37183
fmr
0
$1,524
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 37183
acs median gross
1
$1,423
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 37183
fmr
1
$1,596
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 37183
acs median gross
2
$1,600
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 37183
fmr
2
$1,750
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 37183
acs median gross
3
$1,830
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 37183
fmr
3
$2,196
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 37183
acs median gross
4
$2,353
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 37183
fmr
4
$2,936
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 37183
acs median gross
5
$2,651
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 37183
acs median gross
$1,623
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 37183
acs recent mover gross
$1,803
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 27545
acs median gross
1
$1,341
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 27545
acs median gross
2
$1,565
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 27545
acs median gross
3
$1,854
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 27545
acs median gross
4
$2,013
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 27545
acs median gross
5
$2,388
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 27545
acs median gross
$1,652
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 27545
acs recent mover gross
$1,787
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 27545
payment standard 110
0
$1,716
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 27545
payment standard 90
0
$1,404
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 27545
safmr
0
$1,560
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 27545
payment standard 110
1
$1,793
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 27545
payment standard 90
1
$1,467
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 27545
safmr
1
$1,630
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 27545
payment standard 110
2
$1,969
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 27545
payment standard 90
2
$1,611
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 27545
safmr
2
$1,790
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 27545
payment standard 110
3
$2,475
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 27545
payment standard 90
3
$2,025
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 27545
safmr
3
$2,250
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 27545
payment standard 110
4
$3,300
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 27545
payment standard 90
4
$2,700
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 27545
safmr
4
$3,000
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.