Reads as: riskier than 56.5% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
8
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
6 chains
MILLER ROBERT
31 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
5 chains
LIBERTY HEALTHCARE MANAGEMENT INC
30 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
4 chains
CALCUTT JOSEPH
34 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
4 chains
OLIVER ANNA
25 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
4 chains
MCNEILL JOHN
31 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
4 chains
MCNEILL RONALD
29 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
4 chains
LONG TERM CARE MANAGEMENT SERVICES LLC
33 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
4 chains
LIBERTY REAL PROPERTIES LLC
11 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
NC median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
2.86
3.08
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.11
0.30
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
2.87
2.93
3.11
—
Weekday total
2.86
3.14
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
86.9
2.86
0.11
0.84
1.91
2.87
31.1%
2025Q3
92
85.5
2.99
0.07
0.90
2.03
2.93
28.6%
2025Q2
91
80.4
3.00
0.13
0.89
1.98
2.96
38.0%
2025Q1
90
80.6
3.03
0.14
0.87
2.02
2.89
30.3%
2024Q4
92
79.0
3.02
0.14
0.92
1.97
2.92
25.1%
2024Q3
92
73.0
3.11
0.12
1.05
1.95
2.93
25.5%
2024Q2
91
68.2
3.10
0.19
1.01
1.90
2.88
25.6%
2024Q1
91
69.4
3.00
0.10
1.02
1.88
2.82
26.1%
2023Q4
92
69.0
2.91
0.08
0.87
1.96
2.76
20.6%
2023Q3
92
67.7
2.68
0.12
0.78
1.79
2.48
10.2%
2023Q2
91
68.9
2.52
0.16
0.67
1.69
2.31
3.5%
2023Q1
90
64.3
2.72
0.15
0.77
1.79
2.44
0.0%
2022Q4
92
63.7
2.48
0.15
0.69
1.63
2.12
0.5%
2022Q3
92
60.1
2.46
0.16
0.58
1.71
2.21
2.4%
2022Q2
91
58.8
2.63
0.15
0.67
1.80
2.41
10.1%
2022Q1
90
59.0
2.35
0.17
0.60
1.58
2.21
11.0%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
D
2026-03-20
2026-02-26
Health · complaint
F0759
Ensure medication error rates are not 5 percent or greater.
D
2026-03-20
2026-02-26
Health
F0790
Provide routine and 24-hour emergency dental care for each resident.
D
2026-03-20
2026-02-26
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2026-03-20
2024-12-19
Health · complaint
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
D
2024-11-15
2023-10-19
Health
F0636
Assess the resident completely in a timely manner when first admitted, and then periodically, at least every 12 months.
B
2023-11-06
2023-10-19
Health
F0638
Assure that each resident’s assessment is updated at least once every 3 months.
B
2023-11-06
2023-10-19
Health
F0641
Ensure each resident receives an accurate assessment.
B
2023-11-06
2023-10-19
Health
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
D
2023-11-06
2023-10-19
Health
F0867
Set up an ongoing quality assessment and assurance group to review quality deficiencies and develop corrective plans of action.
D
2023-11-06
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
39
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
AYERS, TRACY
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-12-23
current
pecos_ownership
CALCUTT, JOSEPH
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-04-29
current
pecos_ownership
JOHN A MCNEILL JR 2012 IRRV TR
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2026-03-23
current
pecos_ownership
LIBERTY HEALTHCARE GROUP LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2026-03-23
current
pecos_ownership
LIBERTY HEALTHCARE MANAGEMENT INC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-04-29
current
pecos_ownership
LIBERTY HEALTHCARE PROPERTIES OF SHORELAND, LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-04-29
current
pecos_ownership
LIBERTY LONG TERM CARE LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2026-03-23
current
pecos_ownership
LIBERTY PROPERTIES
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
—
2022-10-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
LIBERTY PROPERTIES
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
—
2023-10-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
LIBERTY REAL PROPERTIES, LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-04-29
current
pecos_ownership
LONG TERM CARE MANAGEMENT SERVICES LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-04-29
current
pecos_ownership
MCNEILL, JOHN
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
1998-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
MCNEILL, JOHN
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2025-04-29
current
pecos_ownership
MCNEILL, JOHN
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2006-04-27
current
pecos_ownership
MCNEILL, RONALD
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-04-29
current
pecos_ownership
MCNEILL, RONALD
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2006-04-27
current
pecos_ownership
MCNEILL, RONALD
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
1998-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
MILLER, ROBERT
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2025-04-29
current
pecos_ownership
OLIVER, ANNA
INDIVIDUAL IS AN OWNER, PARTNER OR TRUSTEE OF ANY ADP OF THE SNF
—
2026-03-10
current
pecos_ownership
RONALD B. AND CYNTHIA J. MCNEILL 2013 IRREVOCABLE TRUST
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2026-03-23
current
pecos_ownership
SCHACHT, ERICA
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-12-23
current
pecos_ownership
WILSON, JEFFREY
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-04-29
current
pecos_ownership
WILSON, JEFFREY
INDIVIDUAL IS AN OWNER, PARTNER OR TRUSTEE OF ANY ADP OF THE SNF
—
2026-03-23
current
pecos_ownership
WILSON, JEFFREY
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2012-10-31
current
pecos_ownership
LIBERTY PROPERTIES
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
100%
2019-10-01
ended 2020-09-30
hcris_a_8_1
LIBERTY PROPERTIES
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
100%
2020-10-01
ended 2021-09-30
hcris_a_8_1
ERICA SCHACHT
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-12-23
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JEFFREY WILSON
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2025-04-29
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JEFFREY WILSON
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2012-10-31
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOHN MCNEILL
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2025-04-29
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOHN MCNEILL
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
1998-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOHN MCNEILL
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2006-04-27
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOSEPH CALCUTT
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-04-29
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
LIBERTY PROPERTIES
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
—
2021-10-01
ended 2022-09-30
hcris_a_8_1
ROBERT MILLER
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-04-29
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
RONALD MCNEILL
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2006-04-27
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
RONALD MCNEILL
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-04-29
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
RONALD MCNEILL
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
1998-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
TRACY AYERS
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-12-23
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
5
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-09-30
$1,663,336
—
$450,669
$10,132
$8,107
5
propco
2023-09-30
$1,285,003
—
—
—
$4,151
5
propco
2022-09-30
$1,322,994
—
—
—
—
11
propco
2021-09-30
$1,630,832
—
—
—
—
11
propco
2020-09-30
$71,363
—
—
—
—
16
propco
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
33
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 37047
fmr
0
$718
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 37047
acs median gross
1
$690
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 37047
fmr
1
$722
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 37047
acs median gross
2
$794
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 37047
fmr
2
$925
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 37047
acs median gross
3
$890
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 37047
fmr
3
$1,109
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 37047
acs median gross
4
$956
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 37047
fmr
4
$1,225
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 37047
acs median gross
5
$635
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 37047
acs median gross
$824
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 37047
acs recent mover gross
$959
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 28472
acs median gross
1
$836
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 28472
acs median gross
2
$894
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 28472
acs median gross
3
$866
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 28472
acs median gross
4
$870
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 28472
acs median gross
$845
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 28472
acs recent mover gross
$478
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 28472
payment standard 110
0
$803
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28472
payment standard 90
0
$657
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28472
safmr
0
$730
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28472
payment standard 110
1
$803
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28472
payment standard 90
1
$657
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28472
safmr
1
$730
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28472
payment standard 110
2
$1,034
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28472
payment standard 90
2
$846
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28472
safmr
2
$940
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28472
payment standard 110
3
$1,243
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28472
payment standard 90
3
$1,017
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28472
safmr
3
$1,130
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28472
payment standard 110
4
$1,364
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28472
payment standard 90
4
$1,116
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28472
safmr
4
$1,240
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.