Reads as: riskier than 46.9% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
NC median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
2.77
3.08
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.19
0.30
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
2.79
2.93
3.11
—
Weekday total
2.76
3.14
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
113.1
2.77
0.19
0.73
1.85
2.79
0.0%
2025Q3
92
114.0
2.63
0.20
0.68
1.75
2.76
0.0%
2025Q2
91
116.8
2.52
0.19
0.70
1.63
2.60
0.0%
2025Q1
90
115.5
2.67
0.21
0.65
1.80
2.80
0.0%
2024Q4
92
118.3
2.81
0.23
0.64
1.94
2.71
0.0%
2024Q3
92
122.8
2.69
0.23
0.65
1.80
2.72
0.0%
2024Q2
91
120.4
2.83
0.24
0.73
1.86
2.79
0.0%
2024Q1
91
113.6
2.87
0.29
0.65
1.93
2.81
0.0%
2023Q4
92
117.3
2.73
0.31
0.53
1.89
2.66
0.0%
2023Q3
92
111.3
2.70
0.32
0.60
1.78
2.67
0.0%
2023Q2
91
108.9
2.42
0.25
0.63
1.54
2.18
0.0%
2023Q1
90
111.8
2.28
0.25
0.59
1.44
2.27
0.0%
2022Q4
92
112.2
2.25
0.23
0.59
1.42
2.15
0.0%
2022Q3
92
108.9
2.24
0.27
0.61
1.36
2.30
1.2%
2022Q2
91
112.5
2.12
0.28
0.53
1.31
2.18
0.0%
2022Q1
90
103.8
2.55
0.35
0.64
1.55
2.65
0.0%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Protect each resident from the wrongful use of the resident's belongings or money.
D
2025-09-20
2025-09-05
Health
F0641
Ensure each resident receives an accurate assessment.
D
2025-09-16
2025-09-05
Health
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
D
2025-09-16
2025-09-05
Health
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
G
2025-07-23
2025-09-05
Health
F0695
Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed.
D
2025-09-23
2025-09-05
Health
F0700
Try different approaches before using a bed rail. If a bed rail is needed, the facility must (1) assess a resident for safety risk; (2) review these risks and benefits with the resident/representative; (3) get informed consent; and (4) Correctly install and maintain the bed rail.
D
2025-09-20
2025-09-05
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2025-09-23
2025-09-05
Health
F0883
Develop and implement policies and procedures for flu and pneumonia vaccinations.
D
2025-09-24
2025-09-05
Health
F0887
Educate residents and staff on COVID-19 vaccination, offer the COVID-19 vaccine to eligible residents and staff after education, and properly document each resident and staff member's vaccination status.
E
2025-09-23
2025-09-05
Health
F0925
Make sure there is a pest control program to prevent/deal with mice, insects, or other pests.
B
2025-09-20
2025-09-05
Health
F0947
Ensure nurse aides have the skills they need to care for residents, and give nurse aides education in dementia care and abuse prevention.
E
2025-09-23
2025-01-17
Health · complaint
F0925
Make sure there is a pest control program to prevent/deal with mice, insects, or other pests.
E
2025-02-13
2024-06-12
Health · complaint
F0558
Reasonably accommodate the needs and preferences of each resident.
D
2024-07-10
2024-06-12
Health · complaint
F0578
Honor the resident's right to request, refuse, and/or discontinue treatment, to participate in or refuse to participate in experimental research, and to formulate an advance directive.
D
2024-07-10
2024-06-12
Health
F0641
Ensure each resident receives an accurate assessment.
E
2024-07-10
2024-06-12
Health
F0657
Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals.
D
2024-07-10
2024-06-12
Health · complaint
F0688
Provide appropriate care for a resident to maintain and/or improve range of motion (ROM), limited ROM and/or mobility, unless a decline is for a medical reason.
D
2024-07-10
2024-06-12
Health
F0692
Provide enough food/fluids to maintain a resident's health.
D
2024-07-10
2024-06-12
Health
F0693
Ensure that feeding tubes are not used unless there is a medical reason and the resident agrees; and provide appropriate care for a resident with a feeding tube.
D
2024-07-10
2024-06-12
Health
F0803
Ensure menus must meet the nutritional needs of residents, be prepared in advance, be followed, be updated, be reviewed by dietician, and meet the needs of the resident.
D
2024-07-10
2024-06-12
Health
F0842
Safeguard resident-identifiable information and/or maintain medical records on each resident that are in accordance with accepted professional standards.
D
2024-07-10
2024-06-12
Health · complaint
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2024-07-10
2023-05-24
Health
F0550
Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights.
D
2023-06-21
2023-05-24
Health
F0561
Honor the resident's right to and the facility must promote and facilitate resident self-determination through support of resident choice.
E
2023-06-21
2023-05-24
Health
F0565
Honor the resident's right to organize and participate in resident/family groups in the facility.
E
2023-06-21
2023-05-24
Health
F0583
Keep residents' personal and medical records private and confidential.
D
2023-06-21
2023-05-24
Health
F0641
Ensure each resident receives an accurate assessment.
D
2023-06-21
2023-05-24
Health
F0677
Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable.
D
2023-06-21
2023-05-24
Health
F0725
Provide enough nursing staff every day to meet the needs of every resident; and have a licensed nurse in charge on each shift.
E
2023-06-21
2023-05-24
Health
F0947
Ensure nurse aides have the skills they need to care for residents, and give nurse aides education in dementia care and abuse prevention.
D
2023-06-21
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
20
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
RIDGEWOOD PROPCO
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
100%
2024-01-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
RIDGEWOOD PROPCO
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
100%
2023-01-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
NCNH HOLDINGS LLC
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
96%
2016-06-01
current
pecos_ownership
STARLIGHT HEALTHCARE LLC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
36%
2016-06-01
current
pecos_ownership
NCNH J-DEK LLC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
24%
2016-06-01
current
pecos_ownership
10-26 NATIONWIDE TR
DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2016-06-01
current
pecos_ownership
CCH HEALTHCARE LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2026-03-11
current
pecos_ownership
CCH HEALTHCARE LLC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2016-06-01
current
pecos_ownership
FORBRIGHT BANK
5% OR GREATER SECURITY INTEREST
—
2016-06-01
current
pecos_ownership
FORBRIGHT BANK
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2026-03-11
current
pecos_ownership
HARTLEY, LISA
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2020-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
LEWIS, DAVID
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
NCNH PROPCO HOLDING LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2016-06-01
current
pecos_ownership
RIDGEWOOD PROPCO LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2016-06-01
current
pecos_ownership
STERN, JACOB
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2020-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
STERN, JACOB
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2016-06-01
current
pecos_ownership
JACOB STERN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
100%
2016-06-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
RIDGEWOOD PROPCO
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
100%
2022-01-01
ended 2022-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
RIDGEWOOD PROPCO
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
100%
2021-01-01
ended 2021-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
MICHAEL KELLY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
1993-07-12
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
5
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-12-31
$3,072,102
—
—
—
—
2
propco
2023-12-31
$2,339,691
—
—
—
—
2
propco
2022-12-31
$2,153,616
—
—
—
$601,844
2
propco
2021-12-31
$1,840,855
—
—
—
$392,798
2
propco
2020-12-31
$1,376,389
—
—
—
$478,477
1
—
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
32
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 37013
acs median gross
0
$920
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 37013
fmr
0
$732
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 37013
acs median gross
1
$564
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 37013
fmr
1
$737
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 37013
acs median gross
2
$794
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 37013
fmr
2
$925
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 37013
acs median gross
3
$944
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 37013
fmr
3
$1,220
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 37013
acs median gross
4
$1,028
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 37013
fmr
4
$1,552
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 37013
acs median gross
$871
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 27889
acs median gross
0
$907
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 27889
acs median gross
1
$571
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 27889
acs median gross
2
$803
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 27889
acs median gross
3
$940
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 27889
acs median gross
4
$937
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 27889
acs median gross
$865
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 27889
payment standard 110
0
$880
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 27889
payment standard 90
0
$720
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 27889
safmr
0
$800
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 27889
payment standard 110
1
$880
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 27889
payment standard 90
1
$720
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 27889
safmr
1
$800
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 27889
payment standard 110
2
$1,089
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 27889
payment standard 90
2
$891
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 27889
safmr
2
$990
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 27889
payment standard 110
3
$1,474
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 27889
payment standard 90
3
$1,206
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 27889
safmr
3
$1,340
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 27889
payment standard 110
4
$1,826
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 27889
payment standard 90
4
$1,494
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 27889
safmr
4
$1,660
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.