Reads as: riskier than 66.0% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
14
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
50% fined
ROBIN 2008 FAMILY GRANTOR TRUST
8 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
50% fined
NORMAN 5571 LLC
8 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
50% fined
NORMAN 5571 FAMILY GRANTOR TRUST
8 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
50% fined
LAUREN 2020 FAMILY GRANTOR TRUST
8 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
44% fined
SUMMER SOUTH LLC
9 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
44% fined
LEPS 2003 FAMILY TRUST
9 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
40% fined
NORMAN 5571 FAMILY LLC
10 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
40% fined
LAUREN 2020 LLC
10 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
40% fined
RL 2008 FAMILY TRUST
10 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
40% fined
ROBIN 2008 LLC
10 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
40% fined
DRM SOUTH LLC
10 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
40% fined
RSBRM SOUTH MANAGER LLC
10 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
40% fined
SPRINGROCK SOUTH LLC
10 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
40% fined
CK 2008 FAMILY TRUST
10 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
NC median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
3.27
3.08
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.25
0.30
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
3.20
2.93
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.30
3.14
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
130.2
3.27
0.25
1.02
2.00
3.20
0.0%
2025Q3
92
131.8
2.98
0.27
0.92
1.78
2.89
0.0%
2025Q2
91
131.0
3.18
0.32
0.93
1.94
3.10
0.0%
2025Q1
90
128.0
3.15
0.29
0.92
1.94
2.97
0.0%
2024Q4
92
130.2
3.05
0.15
1.00
1.90
3.02
0.0%
2024Q3
92
131.2
3.19
0.14
1.09
1.97
3.15
0.0%
2024Q2
91
128.3
3.15
0.09
1.09
1.97
3.02
0.0%
2024Q1
91
130.1
3.21
0.12
1.09
2.00
3.10
0.0%
2023Q4
92
128.5
3.17
0.14
1.00
2.03
3.08
0.0%
2023Q3
92
131.9
3.06
0.09
1.02
1.95
3.00
0.0%
2023Q2
91
132.3
3.10
0.14
0.95
2.01
3.09
0.0%
2023Q1
90
132.0
3.22
0.15
0.99
2.08
3.19
0.0%
2022Q4
92
130.3
2.91
0.03
1.20
1.68
2.82
0.0%
2022Q3
92
130.9
2.51
0.06
1.04
1.41
2.31
6.6%
2022Q2
91
127.7
2.26
0.06
0.93
1.28
2.20
10.7%
2022Q1
90
126.6
2.86
0.07
1.04
1.75
2.77
25.6%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Ensure medication error rates are not 5 percent or greater.
D
2026-02-02
2025-07-02
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
E
2025-07-10
2025-03-05
Health · complaint
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
G
2025-03-13
2024-11-04
Health · complaint
F0583
Keep residents' personal and medical records private and confidential.
D
2024-09-27
2024-11-04
Health · complaint
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
J
2024-08-23
2024-11-04
Health · complaint
F0760
Ensure that residents are free from significant medication errors.
D
2024-11-05
2024-10-11
Health · complaint
F0696
Provide appropriate care/assistance for a resident with a prosthesis.
E
2024-11-04
2024-10-11
Health · complaint
F0842
Safeguard resident-identifiable information and/or maintain medical records on each resident that are in accordance with accepted professional standards.
D
2024-11-04
2024-08-21
Health · complaint
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
D
2024-08-13
2024-05-03
Health · complaint
F0551
Give the resident's representative the ability to exercise the resident's rights.
D
2024-05-24
2024-05-03
Health · complaint
F0567
Honor the resident's right to manage his or her financial affairs.
D
2024-05-24
2024-05-03
Health · complaint
F0609
Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities.
D
2024-05-24
2024-05-03
Health · complaint
F0677
Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable.
D
2024-05-24
2024-05-03
Health · complaint
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
G
2024-05-24
2024-05-03
Health · complaint
F0690
Provide appropriate care for residents who are continent or incontinent of bowel/bladder, appropriate catheter care, and appropriate care to prevent urinary tract infections.
E
2024-05-24
2024-05-03
Health · complaint
F0700
Try different approaches before using a bed rail. If a bed rail is needed, the facility must (1) assess a resident for safety risk; (2) review these risks and benefits with the resident/representative; (3) get informed consent; and (4) Correctly install and maintain the bed rail.
G
2024-05-24
2024-05-03
Health
F0760
Ensure that residents are free from significant medication errors.
E
2024-05-24
2024-05-03
Health · complaint
F0867
Set up an ongoing quality assessment and assurance group to review quality deficiencies and develop corrective plans of action.
G
2024-05-24
2024-05-03
Health
F0883
Develop and implement policies and procedures for flu and pneumonia vaccinations.
E
2024-05-24
2024-03-25
Health · complaint
F0600
Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody.
J
2024-03-16
2024-03-25
Health · complaint
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
G
2024-03-02
2024-03-25
Health · complaint
F0744
Provide the appropriate treatment and services to a resident who displays or is diagnosed with dementia.
D
2024-03-16
2024-03-25
Health · complaint
F0867
Set up an ongoing quality assessment and assurance group to review quality deficiencies and develop corrective plans of action.
D
2024-04-03
2023-02-02
Health
F0585
Honor the resident's right to voice grievances without discrimination or reprisal and the facility must establish a grievance policy and make prompt efforts to resolve grievances.
D
2023-02-25
2023-02-02
Health
F0742
Provide the appropriate treatment and services to a resident who displays or is diagnosed with mental disorder or psychosocial adjustment difficulty, or who has a history of trauma and/or post-traumatic stress disorder.
D
2023-02-25
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
20
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
CAROLINA CUMBERLAND HOLDINGS LLC
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2021-05-28
current
pecos_ownership
CHARLES 1994 FAMILY GRANTOR TRUST
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2021-05-28
current
pecos_ownership
CK 2008 FAMILY TRUST
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2021-05-28
current
pecos_ownership
DRM SOUTH LLC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2021-05-28
current
pecos_ownership
EDWARD 1998 FAMILY GRANTOR TRUST
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2021-05-28
current
pecos_ownership
LAUREN 2020 FAMILY GRANTOR TRUST
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2021-05-28
current
pecos_ownership
LAUREN 2020 LLC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2021-05-28
current
pecos_ownership
LEPS 2003 FAMILY TRUST
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2021-05-28
current
pecos_ownership
MAHER, CINDY
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2021-05-28
current
pecos_ownership
NORMAN 5571 & FAMILY LLC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2021-05-28
current
pecos_ownership
NORMAN 5571 FAMILY GRANTOR TRUST
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2021-05-28
current
pecos_ownership
NORMAN 5571 LLC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2021-05-28
current
pecos_ownership
RL 2008 FAMILY TRUST
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2021-05-28
current
pecos_ownership
ROBIN 2008 FAMILY GRANTOR TRUST
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2021-05-28
current
pecos_ownership
ROBIN 2008 LLC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2021-05-28
current
pecos_ownership
RSBRM SOUTH MANAGER LLC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2021-05-28
current
pecos_ownership
SAUL 2012 FAMILY GRANTOR TRUST
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2021-05-28
current
pecos_ownership
SPRINGROCK SOUTH LLC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2021-05-28
current
pecos_ownership
SUMMER SOUTH LLC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2021-05-28
current
pecos_ownership
CINDY MAHER
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
100%
2021-05-28
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
2
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2021-05-27
$545,448
—
$504,001
—
$41,447
1
—
2020-09-30
$712,862
—
$663,996
—
$48,866
1
—
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
1
Close date
Price
Buyer
Seller
Evidence
2021-05-28
—
CAROLINA CUMBERLAND OPERATOR LLC
CAROLINA HEALTH CARE CENTER OF CUMBERLAND COUNTY, LP
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
36
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 37051
acs median gross
0
$1,067
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 37051
fmr
0
$1,090
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 37051
acs median gross
1
$1,013
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 37051
fmr
1
$1,113
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 37051
acs median gross
2
$1,140
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 37051
fmr
2
$1,251
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 37051
acs median gross
3
$1,353
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 37051
fmr
3
$1,667
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 37051
acs median gross
4
$1,682
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 37051
fmr
4
$2,068
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 37051
acs median gross
5
$1,781
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 37051
acs median gross
$1,222
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 37051
acs recent mover gross
$1,454
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 28306
acs median gross
0
$851
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 28306
acs median gross
1
$1,024
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 28306
acs median gross
2
$976
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 28306
acs median gross
3
$1,193
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 28306
acs median gross
4
$1,775
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 28306
acs median gross
5
$1,198
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 28306
acs median gross
$1,150
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 28306
acs recent mover gross
$1,400
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 28306
payment standard 110
0
$1,078
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28306
payment standard 90
0
$882
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28306
safmr
0
$980
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28306
payment standard 110
1
$1,089
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28306
payment standard 90
1
$891
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28306
safmr
1
$990
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28306
payment standard 110
2
$1,232
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28306
payment standard 90
2
$1,008
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28306
safmr
2
$1,120
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28306
payment standard 110
3
$1,672
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28306
payment standard 90
3
$1,368
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28306
safmr
3
$1,520
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28306
payment standard 110
4
$2,068
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28306
payment standard 90
4
$1,692
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28306
safmr
4
$1,880
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.