625 Bethany Church Road, Albemarle, NC 28001 · CCN 345281 · chain ADVOCATE HEALTH INC
Composite
74.2 / 100 percentile
Peer group
snf n = 14,684
Evidence depth
deep
Certified beds
90
Model
v1.2
Reads as: riskier than 74.2% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
NC median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
3.06
3.08
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.29
0.30
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
2.72
2.93
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.20
3.14
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
57.4
3.06
0.29
0.44
2.34
2.72
3.7%
2025Q3
92
55.6
3.25
0.44
0.68
2.14
2.71
14.6%
2025Q2
91
49.5
3.65
0.49
0.99
2.17
3.15
22.2%
2025Q1
90
49.1
4.02
0.39
1.12
2.51
3.71
22.2%
2024Q4
92
53.0
4.10
0.41
1.19
2.51
3.92
17.7%
2024Q3
92
59.7
2.53
0.29
0.83
1.40
2.40
15.0%
2024Q2
91
58.6
3.64
0.34
1.04
2.27
3.12
8.5%
2024Q1
91
58.4
3.66
0.33
1.08
2.25
3.25
7.1%
2023Q4
92
57.8
3.61
0.39
0.90
2.32
3.21
18.5%
2023Q3
92
52.2
3.27
0.22
0.99
2.06
2.91
11.9%
2023Q2
91
49.7
3.52
0.28
1.32
1.91
2.99
21.6%
2023Q1
90
44.1
3.89
0.22
1.36
2.32
3.12
29.2%
2022Q4
92
42.8
3.83
0.25
1.33
2.25
3.14
27.2%
2022Q3
92
40.3
4.07
0.15
1.53
2.39
3.46
25.8%
2022Q2
91
38.6
3.91
0.07
1.48
2.36
3.37
24.0%
2022Q1
90
39.3
3.34
0.08
1.15
2.10
2.74
3.8%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
E
2026-01-22
2024-10-24
Health · complaint
F0583
Keep residents' personal and medical records private and confidential.
D
2024-11-15
2024-10-24
Health · complaint
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
J
2024-11-15
2024-10-24
Health
F0685
Assist a resident in gaining access to vision and hearing services.
E
2024-11-15
2024-10-24
Health · complaint
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
J
2024-11-15
2024-10-24
Health · complaint
F0693
Ensure that feeding tubes are not used unless there is a medical reason and the resident agrees; and provide appropriate care for a resident with a feeding tube.
D
2024-11-15
2024-10-24
Health · complaint
F0695
Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed.
D
2024-11-15
2024-10-24
Health · complaint
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
D
2024-11-15
2024-10-24
Health · complaint
F0837
Establish a governing body that is legally responsible for establishing and implementing policies for managing and operating the facility and appoints a properly licensed administrator responsible for managing the facility.
C
2024-11-15
2023-11-29
Health · complaint
F0550
Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights.
D
2023-12-27
2023-05-25
Health
F0638
Assure that each resident’s assessment is updated at least once every 3 months.
B
2023-06-08
2023-05-25
Health
F0727
Have a registered nurse on duty 8 hours a day; and select a registered nurse to be the director of nurses on a full time basis.
F
2023-06-08
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
20
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
ADVOCATE HEALTH INC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2022-12-02
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ADVOCATE HEALTH INC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-04-23
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ATRIUM HEALTH INC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-04-23
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ATRIUM HEALTH INC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2020-10-09
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
BROAD RIVER REHABILITATION
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-06-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
BROAD RIVER REHABILITATION
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-05-05
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JENNIFER MORGAN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-03-20
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
KENNETH HAYNES
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2019-12-20
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
KENNETH HAYNES
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2019-06-21
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
OPTIMED HOSPITALISTS
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-05-05
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
OPTIMED HOSPITALISTS
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2017-12-22
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
OPTIMED HOSPITALISTS, PLLC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2017-12-22
ended 2026-04-01
pecos_ownership
PRO DIVERSITY PARTNERS, LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-04-23
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PRO DIVERSITY PARTNERS, LLC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2021-08-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ROBERT MURRAY
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-01-16
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
RODNEY BALL
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2023-02-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
RODNEY BALL
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2023-08-30
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SCOTT RISSMILLER
TRUSTEE OF THE SNF
—
2019-06-21
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SCOTT RISSMILLER
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2019-06-19
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
THE CHARLOTTE-MECKLENBURG HOSPITAL AUTHORITY
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-04-22
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
6
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-12-31
$2,089,930
—
$2,089,930
—
—
0
—
2023-12-31
$1,548,121
—
$1,548,121
—
—
1
—
2022-12-31
$2,017,574
—
$2,017,574
—
—
4
—
2021-12-31
$2,243,355
—
$2,243,355
—
—
4
—
2020-12-31
$1,314,360
—
$1,314,360
—
—
4
—
2020-01-31
$148,732
—
$148,732
—
—
4
—
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
33
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 37167
fmr
0
$638
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 37167
acs median gross
1
$576
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 37167
fmr
1
$705
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 37167
acs median gross
2
$843
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 37167
fmr
2
$925
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 37167
acs median gross
3
$1,059
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 37167
fmr
3
$1,281
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 37167
acs median gross
4
$1,002
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 37167
fmr
4
$1,466
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 37167
acs median gross
$861
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 37167
acs recent mover gross
$1,102
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 28001
acs median gross
0
$690
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 28001
acs median gross
1
$572
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 28001
acs median gross
2
$868
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 28001
acs median gross
3
$1,229
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 28001
acs median gross
4
$955
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 28001
acs median gross
$858
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 28001
acs recent mover gross
$1,063
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 28001
payment standard 110
0
$715
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28001
payment standard 90
0
$585
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28001
safmr
0
$650
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28001
payment standard 110
1
$792
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28001
payment standard 90
1
$648
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28001
safmr
1
$720
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28001
payment standard 110
2
$1,045
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28001
payment standard 90
2
$855
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28001
safmr
2
$950
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28001
payment standard 110
3
$1,452
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28001
payment standard 90
3
$1,188
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28001
safmr
3
$1,320
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28001
payment standard 110
4
$1,672
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28001
payment standard 90
4
$1,368
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28001
safmr
4
$1,520
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.