Reads as: riskier than 65.8% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
6
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
6 chains
MILLER ROBERT
31 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
5 chains
LIBERTY HEALTHCARE MANAGEMENT INC
30 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
4 chains
CALCUTT JOSEPH
34 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
4 chains
OLIVER ANNA
25 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
4 chains
MCNEILL JOHN
31 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
4 chains
LONG TERM CARE MANAGEMENT SERVICES LLC
33 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
NC median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
3.12
3.08
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.24
0.30
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
2.94
2.93
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.19
3.14
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
89.5
3.12
0.24
1.06
1.82
2.94
46.2%
2025Q3
92
86.1
2.78
0.22
0.87
1.69
2.44
23.7%
2025Q2
91
74.9
2.90
0.18
0.91
1.80
2.53
20.7%
2025Q1
90
73.6
2.79
0.17
0.84
1.78
2.41
19.4%
2024Q4
92
74.5
3.05
0.14
0.83
2.08
2.73
24.3%
2024Q3
92
81.1
2.75
0.09
0.68
1.98
2.57
25.5%
2024Q2
91
75.4
2.86
0.15
0.80
1.91
2.69
18.7%
2024Q1
91
66.7
3.15
0.17
0.98
2.00
2.82
20.1%
2023Q4
92
61.4
3.05
0.18
0.98
1.88
2.78
16.3%
2023Q3
92
57.8
3.22
0.23
1.09
1.89
2.83
16.7%
2023Q2
91
70.4
3.25
0.23
1.05
1.97
2.78
31.3%
2023Q1
90
74.7
3.21
0.22
0.99
2.00
2.78
33.6%
2022Q4
92
69.0
3.60
0.16
1.06
2.38
3.28
39.8%
2022Q3
92
65.8
3.31
0.17
1.18
1.96
2.56
13.4%
2022Q2
91
69.1
3.94
0.20
1.30
2.44
4.25
17.4%
2022Q1
90
75.9
4.52
0.22
1.38
2.92
4.12
28.4%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0
No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
15
B × 1D × 13E × 1
deficiencies by survey year
Survey
Type
Tag
Deficiency
Scope
Corrected
2026-03-13
Health · complaint
F0584
Honor the resident's right to a safe, clean, comfortable and homelike environment, including but not limited to receiving treatment and supports for daily living safely.
D
2026-04-10
2026-03-13
Health · complaint
F0602
Protect each resident from the wrongful use of the resident's belongings or money.
D
2026-04-10
2026-03-13
Health
F0641
Ensure each resident receives an accurate assessment.
D
2026-04-10
2026-03-13
Health · complaint
F0685
Assist a resident in gaining access to vision and hearing services.
D
2026-04-10
2026-03-13
Health · complaint
F0686
Provide appropriate pressure ulcer care and prevent new ulcers from developing.
D
2026-04-10
2026-03-13
Health · complaint
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
D
2026-04-10
2024-12-19
Health · complaint
F0561
Honor the resident's right to and the facility must promote and facilitate resident self-determination through support of resident choice.
D
2025-01-21
2024-12-19
Health · complaint
F0567
Honor the resident's right to manage his or her financial affairs.
B
2025-01-22
2024-12-19
Health · complaint
F0585
Honor the resident's right to voice grievances without discrimination or reprisal and the facility must establish a grievance policy and make prompt efforts to resolve grievances.
D
2025-01-21
2024-12-19
Health · complaint
F0641
Ensure each resident receives an accurate assessment.
D
2025-01-21
2024-12-19
Health · complaint
F0644
Coordinate assessments with the pre-admission screening and resident review program; and referring for services as needed.
D
2025-01-21
2024-12-19
Health · complaint
F0677
Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable.
D
2025-01-21
2023-08-24
Health · complaint
F0660
Plan the resident's discharge to meet the resident's goals and needs.
D
2023-09-19
2023-08-24
Health · complaint
F0690
Provide appropriate care for residents who are continent or incontinent of bowel/bladder, appropriate catheter care, and appropriate care to prevent urinary tract infections.
E
2023-09-19
2023-06-14
Health · complaint
F0808
Ensure therapeutic diets are prescribed by the attending physician and may be delegated to a registered or licensed dietitian, to the extent allowed by State law.
D
2023-06-30
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
34
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
CALCUTT, JOSEPH
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-04-29
current
pecos_ownership
CALCUTT, JOSEPH
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2022-10-01
current
pecos_ownership
DRAKE, TONYA
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2026-04-20
current
pecos_ownership
DRAKE, TONYA
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-04-29
current
pecos_ownership
LIBERTY HEALTHCARE MANAGEMENT INC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-04-29
current
pecos_ownership
LIBERTY HEALTHCARE PROPERTIES OF HIGHLAND HOUSE, LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-04-29
current
pecos_ownership
LIBERTY PROPERTIES
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
—
2023-10-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
LIBERTY PROPERTIES
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
—
2022-10-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
LIBERTY REAL PROPERTIES IV LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-04-29
current
pecos_ownership
LONG TERM CARE MANAGEMENT SERVICES LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-04-29
current
pecos_ownership
MCNEILL, JOHN
LIMITED PARTNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2025-04-29
current
pecos_ownership
MCNEILL, ROBERT
TRUSTEE OF THE SNF
—
2025-04-29
current
pecos_ownership
MILLER, ROBERT
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2025-04-29
current
pecos_ownership
OKONKWO, IFEYINWA
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2026-04-20
current
pecos_ownership
OKONKWO, IFEYINWA
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-04-29
current
pecos_ownership
OLIVER, ANNA
TRUSTEE OF THE SNF
—
2025-04-29
current
pecos_ownership
PURIFOY, PENNY
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2025-04-29
current
pecos_ownership
PURVIS, JENNY
TRUSTEE OF THE SNF
—
2025-04-29
current
pecos_ownership
WILSON, JEFFREY
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-04-29
current
pecos_ownership
WILSON, JEFFREY
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2022-10-01
current
pecos_ownership
LIBERTY HEALTHCARE GROUP LLC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2022-09-30
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
LIBERTY LONG TERM CARE LLC
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2022-09-30
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
RICHARD ALLEN
Director, officer, administrator or key person of provider or organization
100%
2020-10-01
ended 2021-09-30
hcris_a_8_1
RICHARD ALLEN
Director, officer, administrator or key person of provider or organization
100%
2021-10-01
ended 2022-09-30
hcris_a_8_1
RICHARD ALLEN
Director, officer, administrator or key person of provider or organization
100%
2019-10-01
ended 2020-09-30
hcris_a_8_1
JOHN MCNEILL
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
26%
2022-09-30
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
RONALD MCNEILL
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
26%
2022-09-30
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOHN A MCNEILL JR 2012 IRRV TR
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
24%
2022-09-30
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
RONALD B AND CYNTHIA J MCNEILL 2013 IRRV TR
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
24%
2022-09-30
ended 2026-04-01
pecos_ownership
RONALD B. AND CYNTHIA J. MCNEILL 2013 IRREVOCABLE TRUST
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
24%
2022-09-30
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JEFFREY WILSON
CORPORATE OFFICER
0%
2022-10-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOSEPH CALCUTT
CORPORATE OFFICER
0%
2022-10-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PENNY PURIFOY
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
0%
2022-10-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
TONYA DRAKE
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2023-04-23
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
5
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-09-30
$2,326,497
—
$520,935
$3,408
$400,486
5
propco
2023-09-30
$2,516,028
—
—
—
$612,831
5
propco
2022-09-30
$26,986
—
—
—
—
2
propco
2021-09-30
$26,986
—
—
—
—
2
propco
2020-09-30
$26,986
—
—
—
—
2
propco
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
1
Close date
Price
Buyer
Seller
Evidence
2022-10-01
—
LIBERTY COMMONS NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER OF HIGHLAND
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
36
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 37051
acs median gross
0
$1,067
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 37051
fmr
0
$1,090
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 37051
acs median gross
1
$1,013
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 37051
fmr
1
$1,113
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 37051
acs median gross
2
$1,140
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 37051
fmr
2
$1,251
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 37051
acs median gross
3
$1,353
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 37051
fmr
3
$1,667
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 37051
acs median gross
4
$1,682
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 37051
fmr
4
$2,068
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 37051
acs median gross
5
$1,781
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 37051
acs median gross
$1,222
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 37051
acs recent mover gross
$1,454
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 28301
acs median gross
0
$658
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 28301
acs median gross
1
$734
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 28301
acs median gross
2
$894
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 28301
acs median gross
3
$1,105
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 28301
acs median gross
4
$1,142
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 28301
acs median gross
5
$1,205
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 28301
acs median gross
$951
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 28301
acs recent mover gross
$1,096
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 28301
payment standard 110
0
$1,078
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28301
payment standard 90
0
$882
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28301
safmr
0
$980
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28301
payment standard 110
1
$1,089
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28301
payment standard 90
1
$891
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28301
safmr
1
$990
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28301
payment standard 110
2
$1,232
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28301
payment standard 90
2
$1,008
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28301
safmr
2
$1,120
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28301
payment standard 110
3
$1,672
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28301
payment standard 90
3
$1,368
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28301
safmr
3
$1,520
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28301
payment standard 110
4
$2,068
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28301
payment standard 90
4
$1,692
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28301
safmr
4
$1,880
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.