Reads as: riskier than 65.1% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
6
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+28.7 vs natl
PC HMH PROPCO HOLDINGS LLC
7 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+28.2 vs natl
PC HMH PROPCO INTERMEDIATE 9 LLC
7 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+26.7 vs natl
PC HMH TOPCO PROPCO HOLDINGS LLC
6 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+26.3 vs natl
PC HMH HOLDINGS LLC
8 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+26.3 vs natl
PC HMH OPCO HOLDNGS LLC
8 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+21.7 vs natl
SABELLA SABRINA
5 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
NJ median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
3.42
3.31
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.30
0.35
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
3.40
3.21
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.42
3.37
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
72.4
3.42
0.30
0.94
2.18
3.40
13.2%
2025Q3
92
78.8
3.34
0.40
0.83
2.11
3.31
13.5%
2025Q2
91
78.9
3.40
0.48
0.83
2.09
3.37
14.6%
2025Q1
90
78.8
3.54
0.31
1.08
2.15
3.50
17.2%
2024Q4
92
72.8
3.91
0.35
1.22
2.34
3.78
14.6%
2024Q3
92
72.1
3.97
0.37
1.42
2.18
3.76
20.1%
2024Q2
91
71.3
4.07
0.53
1.27
2.26
3.74
36.7%
2024Q1
91
76.7
4.20
0.55
1.55
2.10
3.84
45.1%
2023Q4
92
56.6
4.81
0.35
2.22
2.25
4.58
40.2%
2023Q3
92
67.5
4.40
0.55
1.80
2.05
3.99
28.3%
2023Q2
91
72.3
4.45
1.00
1.28
2.17
4.23
40.8%
2023Q1
90
87.5
4.80
0.91
1.62
2.27
4.66
52.2%
2022Q4
92
69.3
5.78
1.09
1.86
2.83
5.38
46.1%
2022Q3
92
78.6
5.32
1.13
1.50
2.70
5.09
41.0%
2022Q2
91
77.9
5.78
1.49
1.42
2.87
5.47
30.4%
2022Q1
90
82.7
5.46
1.52
1.48
2.46
5.31
23.9%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0
No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
16
D × 3E × 10F × 2J × 1
Survey
Type
Tag
Deficiency
Scope
Corrected
2025-08-06
Health
F0580
Immediately tell the resident, the resident's doctor, and a family member of situations (injury/decline/room, etc.) that affect the resident.
D
2025-09-18
2025-08-06
Health
F0609
Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities.
E
2025-09-18
2025-08-06
Health · complaint
F0610
Respond appropriately to all alleged violations.
E
2025-09-18
2025-08-06
Health
F0677
Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable.
E
2025-09-18
2025-08-06
Health
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
D
2025-09-18
2025-08-06
Health
F0692
Provide enough food/fluids to maintain a resident's health.
E
2025-09-18
2025-08-06
Health
F0697
Provide safe, appropriate pain management for a resident who requires such services.
E
2025-09-18
2025-08-06
Health
F0698
Provide safe, appropriate dialysis care/services for a resident who requires such services.
E
2025-09-18
2025-08-06
Health
F0745
Provide medically-related social services to help each resident achieve the highest possible quality of life.
E
2025-09-18
2025-08-06
Health
F0760
Ensure that residents are free from significant medication errors.
D
2025-09-18
2025-08-06
Health
F0803
Ensure menus must meet the nutritional needs of residents, be prepared in advance, be followed, be updated, be reviewed by dietician, and meet the needs of the resident.
E
2025-09-18
2025-08-06
Health
F0804
Ensure food and drink is palatable, attractive, and at a safe and appetizing temperature.
E
2025-09-18
2025-08-06
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
F
2025-09-18
2025-08-06
Health
F0865
Have a plan that describes the process for conducting QAPI and QAA activities.
F
2025-09-18
2025-08-06
Health
F0919
Make sure that a working call system is available in each resident's bathroom and bathing area.
E
2025-09-18
2025-05-02
Health · complaint
F0760
Ensure that residents are free from significant medication errors.
J
2025-05-02
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
29
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
PC HMH OPCO HOLDNGS LLC
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2023-03-16
current
pecos_ownership
PC HMH PROPCO HOLDINGS LLC
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
100%
2023-03-16
current
hcris_a_8_1
PC HMH PROPCO HOLDINGS LLC
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
100%
2024-01-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
EEF CAPITAL LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-03-16
current
pecos_ownership
HOCH, ROBERT
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-03-16
current
pecos_ownership
JAVINES, AISHA
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-03-16
current
pecos_ownership
MERCADO, WANDA
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-03-16
current
pecos_ownership
PASS, MARK
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-03-16
current
pecos_ownership
PC HMH HOLDINGS LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-03-16
current
pecos_ownership
PC HMH PROPCO INTERMEDIATE 9 LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-03-16
current
pecos_ownership
PC HMH TOPCO PROPCO HOLDINGS LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-03-16
current
pecos_ownership
PEACE CAPITAL HOLDINGS LLC (DE)
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-03-16
current
pecos_ownership
SABELLA, SABRINA
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-03-16
current
pecos_ownership
SCHLAFF, BENNY
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-03-16
current
pecos_ownership
SCHLAFF, NACHUM
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-03-16
current
pecos_ownership
SIEGFRIED, ELIYAHU
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-03-16
current
pecos_ownership
SMS 2021 TRUST
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2023-03-16
current
pecos_ownership
STEIN, SHALOM
TRUSTEE OF THE SNF
—
2023-03-16
current
pecos_ownership
WALL PROPCO HOLDCO LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-03-16
current
pecos_ownership
WALL PROPCO LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-03-16
current
pecos_ownership
SHALOM STEIN
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
5%
2023-03-16
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
AISHA JAVINES
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-03-16
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
BENNY SCHLAFF
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-03-16
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ELIYAHU SIEGFRIED
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-03-16
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MARK PASS
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-03-16
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
NACHUM SCHLAFF
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-03-16
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ROBERT HOCH
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2023-03-16
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SABRINA SABELLA
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-03-16
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
WANDA MERCADO
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-03-16
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
6
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-12-31
$4,297,625
—
—
—
—
2
propco
2023-12-31
$3,480,879
—
—
—
—
2
propco
2023-03-15
$821,136
—
$250,351
$359,220
$14,094
11
—
2022-12-31
$6,154,934
—
$1,234,841
$430,563
$2,520,237
11
—
2021-12-31
$6,139,852
—
$1,256,125
$292,377
$2,398,997
11
—
2020-12-31
$4,964,316
—
$1,438,914
$596,364
$83,869
11
—
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
35
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 34025
acs median gross
0
$1,439
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 34025
fmr
0
$1,676
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 34025
acs median gross
1
$1,497
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 34025
fmr
1
$1,889
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 34025
acs median gross
2
$2,057
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 34025
fmr
2
$2,328
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 34025
acs median gross
3
$2,485
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 34025
fmr
3
$3,043
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 34025
acs median gross
4
$2,753
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 34025
fmr
4
$3,371
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 34025
acs median gross
5
$2,261
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 34025
acs median gross
$1,827
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 34025
acs recent mover gross
$2,294
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 07719
acs median gross
0
$1,605
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 07719
acs median gross
1
$1,440
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 07719
acs median gross
2
$1,984
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 07719
acs median gross
3
$2,580
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 07719
acs median gross
4
$2,606
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 07719
acs median gross
$1,750
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 07719
acs recent mover gross
$1,803
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 07719
payment standard 110
0
$1,848
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 07719
payment standard 90
0
$1,512
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 07719
safmr
0
$1,680
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 07719
payment standard 110
1
$2,079
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 07719
payment standard 90
1
$1,701
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 07719
safmr
1
$1,890
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 07719
payment standard 110
2
$2,563
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 07719
payment standard 90
2
$2,097
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 07719
safmr
2
$2,330
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 07719
payment standard 110
3
$3,355
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 07719
payment standard 90
3
$2,745
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 07719
safmr
3
$3,050
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 07719
payment standard 110
4
$3,707
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 07719
payment standard 90
4
$3,033
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 07719
safmr
4
$3,370
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.