Reads as: riskier than 70.8% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
14
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
50% fined
ROBIN 2008 FAMILY GRANTOR TRUST
8 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
50% fined
NORMAN 5571 LLC
8 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
50% fined
NORMAN 5571 FAMILY GRANTOR TRUST
8 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
50% fined
LAUREN 2020 FAMILY GRANTOR TRUST
8 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
44% fined
SUMMER SOUTH LLC
9 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
44% fined
LEPS 2003 FAMILY TRUST
9 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
40% fined
NORMAN 5571 FAMILY LLC
10 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
40% fined
LAUREN 2020 LLC
10 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
40% fined
RL 2008 FAMILY TRUST
10 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
40% fined
ROBIN 2008 LLC
10 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
40% fined
DRM SOUTH LLC
10 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
40% fined
RSBRM SOUTH MANAGER LLC
10 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
40% fined
SPRINGROCK SOUTH LLC
10 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
40% fined
CK 2008 FAMILY TRUST
10 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
NC median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
3.49
3.08
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.39
0.30
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
3.42
2.93
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.52
3.14
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
82.6
3.49
0.39
0.92
2.18
3.42
12.7%
2025Q3
92
81.9
3.37
0.36
0.91
2.10
3.19
16.0%
2025Q2
91
82.9
3.12
0.41
0.80
1.92
2.96
8.4%
2025Q1
90
83.7
3.14
0.33
0.88
1.94
3.01
2.3%
2024Q4
92
87.9
2.96
0.25
0.89
1.82
2.74
0.0%
2024Q3
92
85.6
3.14
0.45
0.75
1.94
2.88
0.0%
2024Q2
91
81.8
3.21
0.31
0.94
1.96
2.91
0.0%
2024Q1
91
86.8
2.96
0.19
1.02
1.75
2.91
0.0%
2023Q4
92
86.0
3.19
0.14
0.94
2.10
3.16
0.0%
2023Q3
92
86.6
3.10
0.13
0.89
2.07
2.98
0.0%
2023Q2
91
85.2
2.90
0.22
0.88
1.80
2.65
0.0%
2023Q1
90
86.2
2.81
0.27
0.83
1.70
2.63
0.0%
2022Q4
92
82.3
2.70
0.27
0.63
1.80
2.50
0.8%
2022Q3
92
86.8
2.51
0.25
0.60
1.66
2.25
1.3%
2022Q2
91
85.1
2.35
0.23
0.67
1.44
2.16
2.5%
2022Q1
90
85.4
2.79
0.28
0.83
1.68
2.60
0.0%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Honor the resident's right to request, refuse, and/or discontinue treatment, to participate in or refuse to participate in experimental research, and to formulate an advance directive.
D
2025-09-15
2025-08-25
Health · complaint
F0628
Provide the required documentation or notification related to the resident's needs, appeal rights, or bed-hold policies.
J
2025-07-11
2025-08-25
Health
F0732
Post nurse staffing information every day.
C
2025-09-15
2025-08-25
Health
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
D
2025-09-15
2024-08-01
Health · complaint
F0580
Immediately tell the resident, the resident's doctor, and a family member of situations (injury/decline/room, etc.) that affect the resident.
D
2024-08-26
2024-08-01
Health · complaint
F0641
Ensure each resident receives an accurate assessment.
E
2024-08-26
2024-08-01
Health · complaint
F0646
Notify the appropriate authorities when residents with MD or ID services has a significant change in condition.
D
2024-08-26
2024-08-01
Health · complaint
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
D
2024-08-26
2024-08-01
Health · complaint
F0657
Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals.
D
2024-08-26
2024-08-01
Health · complaint
F0695
Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed.
E
2024-08-26
2024-08-01
Health · complaint
F0726
Ensure that nurses and nurse aides have the appropriate competencies to care for every resident in a way that maximizes each resident's well being.
E
2024-08-26
2024-08-01
Health · complaint
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
E
2024-08-26
2024-02-17
Health · complaint
F0867
Set up an ongoing quality assessment and assurance group to review quality deficiencies and develop corrective plans of action.
D
2024-02-20
2024-02-17
Health · complaint
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2024-02-20
2024-01-22
Health · complaint
F0695
Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed.
D
2024-02-17
2024-01-22
Health · complaint
F0760
Ensure that residents are free from significant medication errors.
G
2024-02-17
2023-02-09
Health
F0677
Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable.
D
2023-03-06
2023-02-09
Health
F0697
Provide safe, appropriate pain management for a resident who requires such services.
E
2023-03-06
2023-02-09
Health
F0867
Set up an ongoing quality assessment and assurance group to review quality deficiencies and develop corrective plans of action.
D
2023-03-06
2023-02-09
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2023-03-06
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
19
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
CAROLINA BURKE HOLDINGS I LLC
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2021-05-28
current
pecos_ownership
CHARLES 1994 FAMILY GRANTOR TRUST
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2021-05-28
current
pecos_ownership
CK 2008 FAMILY TRUST
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2021-05-28
current
pecos_ownership
DRM SOUTH LLC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2021-05-28
current
pecos_ownership
LAUREN 2020 FAMILY GRANTOR TRUST
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2021-05-28
current
pecos_ownership
LAUREN 2020 LLC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2021-05-28
current
pecos_ownership
LEPS 2003 FAMILY TRUST
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2021-05-28
current
pecos_ownership
MCGROARTY, HEATHER
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2023-12-11
current
pecos_ownership
NORMAN 5571 & FAMILY LLC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2021-05-28
current
pecos_ownership
NORMAN 5571 FAMILY GRANTOR TRUST
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2021-05-28
current
pecos_ownership
NORMAN 5571 LLC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2021-05-28
current
pecos_ownership
RL 2008 FAMILY TRUST
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2021-05-28
current
pecos_ownership
ROBIN 2008 FAMILY GRANTOR TRUST
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2021-05-28
current
pecos_ownership
ROBIN 2008 LLC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2021-05-28
current
pecos_ownership
RSBRM SOUTH MANAGER LLC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2021-05-28
current
pecos_ownership
SAUL 2012 FAMILY GRANTOR TRUST
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2021-05-28
current
pecos_ownership
SPRINGROCK SOUTH LLC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2021-05-28
current
pecos_ownership
SUMMER SOUTH LLC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2021-05-28
current
pecos_ownership
HEATHER MCGROARTY
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
100%
2023-12-11
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
2
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2021-05-27
$352,361
—
$325,586
—
$26,775
1
—
2020-09-30
$528,112
—
$491,910
—
$36,202
1
—
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
1
Close date
Price
Buyer
Seller
Evidence
2021-05-28
—
CAROLINA BURKE OPERATOR LLC
CAROLINA HEALTH CARE CENTER OF BURKE LIMITED PARTNERSHIP
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
33
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 37023
acs median gross
0
$1,050
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 37023
fmr
0
$858
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 37023
acs median gross
1
$560
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 37023
fmr
1
$908
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 37023
acs median gross
2
$871
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 37023
fmr
2
$1,095
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 37023
acs median gross
3
$915
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 37023
fmr
3
$1,372
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 37023
acs median gross
4
$1,199
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 37023
fmr
4
$1,660
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 37023
acs median gross
5
$1,440
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 37023
acs median gross
$884
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 37023
acs recent mover gross
$1,224
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 28612
acs median gross
2
$848
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 28612
acs median gross
3
$977
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 28612
acs median gross
4
$1,063
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 28612
acs median gross
$872
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 28612
acs recent mover gross
$1,046
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 28612
payment standard 110
0
$935
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28612
payment standard 90
0
$765
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28612
safmr
0
$850
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28612
payment standard 110
1
$990
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28612
payment standard 90
1
$810
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28612
safmr
1
$900
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28612
payment standard 110
2
$1,188
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28612
payment standard 90
2
$972
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28612
safmr
2
$1,080
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28612
payment standard 110
3
$1,485
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28612
payment standard 90
3
$1,215
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28612
safmr
3
$1,350
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28612
payment standard 110
4
$1,804
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28612
payment standard 90
4
$1,476
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28612
safmr
4
$1,640
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.