Reads as: riskier than 35.3% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
NJ median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
3.60
3.31
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.31
0.35
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
3.35
3.21
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.70
3.37
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
87.1
3.60
0.31
1.18
2.11
3.35
1.2%
2025Q3
92
94.6
3.31
0.29
0.98
2.03
2.95
0.0%
2025Q2
91
100.5
3.19
0.33
0.97
1.90
2.92
3.9%
2025Q1
90
104.2
2.74
0.34
0.86
1.54
2.37
3.4%
2024Q4
92
104.4
2.74
0.31
0.90
1.53
2.34
0.0%
2024Q3
92
102.4
2.67
0.29
0.90
1.48
2.11
0.0%
2024Q2
91
109.7
2.57
0.23
0.86
1.49
2.07
0.0%
2024Q1
91
107.3
2.56
0.28
0.78
1.50
2.12
0.0%
2023Q4
92
100.0
2.56
0.28
0.84
1.43
2.12
0.0%
2023Q3
92
99.7
2.47
0.29
0.76
1.43
2.17
0.0%
2023Q2
91
99.3
2.56
0.19
0.86
1.51
2.25
0.0%
2023Q1
90
103.1
2.47
0.20
0.83
1.44
2.23
0.7%
2022Q4
92
103.8
2.46
0.18
0.81
1.47
2.29
1.5%
2022Q3
92
104.5
2.67
0.19
0.81
1.67
2.42
0.0%
2022Q2
91
99.4
2.55
0.08
0.74
1.73
2.38
1.5%
2022Q1
90
102.9
2.25
0.04
0.65
1.56
2.14
0.0%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0
No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
19
D × 14E × 4F × 1
deficiencies by survey year
Survey
Type
Tag
Deficiency
Scope
Corrected
2024-11-26
Health
F0638
Assure that each resident’s assessment is updated at least once every 3 months.
E
2024-12-31
2024-11-26
Health
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
D
2024-12-31
2024-11-26
Health
F0695
Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed.
D
2024-12-31
2024-11-26
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
F
2024-12-31
2023-04-27
Health
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
D
2023-05-20
2023-04-27
Health
F0695
Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed.
D
2023-05-20
2023-04-27
Health
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
D
2023-05-20
2023-04-27
Health
F0836
Ensure the facility is licensed under applicable State and local law and operates and provides services in compliance with all applicable Federal, State, and local laws, regulations, and codes, and with accepted professional standards.
D
2023-05-20
2022-02-18
Health
F0636
Assess the resident completely in a timely manner when first admitted, and then periodically, at least every 12 months.
E
2022-03-31
2022-02-18
Health
F0638
Assure that each resident’s assessment is updated at least once every 3 months.
E
2022-03-31
2022-02-18
Health
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
D
2022-03-15
2022-02-18
Health
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
D
2022-03-15
2022-02-18
Health
F0690
Provide appropriate care for residents who are continent or incontinent of bowel/bladder, appropriate catheter care, and appropriate care to prevent urinary tract infections.
D
2022-03-15
2022-02-18
Health
F0695
Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed.
D
2022-03-15
2022-02-18
Health
F0698
Provide safe, appropriate dialysis care/services for a resident who requires such services.
D
2022-03-15
2022-02-18
Health
F0712
Ensure that the resident and his/her doctor meet face-to-face at all required visits.
E
2022-03-15
2022-02-18
Health
F0755
Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist.
D
2022-03-15
2022-02-18
Health
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
D
2022-03-15
2022-02-18
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
D
2022-03-15
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
10
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
CAPE MAY SNF HOLDCO LLC
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2022-12-01
current
pecos_ownership
502 N ROUTE 9 LLC
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
—
2024-01-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
502 N ROUTE 9 LLC
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
—
2023-01-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
BOK FINANCIAL CORP
5% OR GREATER MORTGAGE INTEREST
—
2022-12-01
current
pecos_ownership
COPPER NJ TRUST
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2022-12-01
current
pecos_ownership
FOGEL, SHLOMO
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2022-12-01
current
pecos_ownership
GOLD NJ TRUST
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2022-12-01
current
pecos_ownership
NJ NOBLE PARENTCO 3 LLC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2022-12-01
current
pecos_ownership
SILVER NJ TR
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2022-12-01
current
pecos_ownership
SHLOMO FOGEL
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
100%
2022-12-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
2
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-12-31
$2,397,884
—
—
—
—
1
propco
2023-12-31
$1,804,639
—
—
—
—
2
propco
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
32
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 34009
acs median gross
0
$826
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 34009
fmr
0
$1,320
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 34009
acs median gross
1
$946
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 34009
fmr
1
$1,366
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 34009
acs median gross
2
$1,485
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 34009
fmr
2
$1,792
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 34009
acs median gross
3
$1,865
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 34009
fmr
3
$2,396
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 34009
acs median gross
4
$1,499
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 34009
fmr
4
$2,405
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 34009
acs median gross
5
$974
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 34009
acs median gross
$1,360
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 34009
acs recent mover gross
$1,765
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 08210
acs median gross
1
$1,217
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 08210
acs median gross
2
$893
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 08210
acs median gross
3
$2,016
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 08210
acs median gross
$1,525
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 08210
payment standard 110
0
$1,595
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 08210
payment standard 90
0
$1,305
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 08210
safmr
0
$1,450
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 08210
payment standard 110
1
$1,650
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 08210
payment standard 90
1
$1,350
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 08210
safmr
1
$1,500
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 08210
payment standard 110
2
$2,167
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 08210
payment standard 90
2
$1,773
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 08210
safmr
2
$1,970
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 08210
payment standard 110
3
$2,893
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 08210
payment standard 90
3
$2,367
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 08210
safmr
3
$2,630
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 08210
payment standard 110
4
$2,904
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 08210
payment standard 90
4
$2,376
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 08210
safmr
4
$2,640
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.