33910 E. COLUMBIA AVENUE, SCAPPOOSE, OR 97056 · CCN 385283 · chain AVALON HEALTH CARE INC
Composite
23.8 / 100 percentile
Peer group
snf n = 14,684
Evidence depth
moderate
Certified beds
40
Model
v1.2
Reads as: riskier than 23.8% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
2
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
40% fined
THE BYRON A KIRTON INDIVIDUAL TR
5 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
40% fined
HYRUM A KIRTON INDIVIDUAL TR
5 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
OR median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
4.13
4.20
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.41
0.41
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
4.12
3.99
3.11
—
Weekday total
4.13
4.27
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
29.4
4.13
0.41
0.54
3.18
4.12
17.5%
2025Q3
92
30.6
3.98
0.39
0.47
3.13
3.99
13.4%
2025Q2
91
31.4
3.78
0.41
0.42
2.95
3.73
15.8%
2025Q1
90
28.6
3.58
0.48
0.40
2.69
3.56
17.0%
2024Q4
92
26.7
3.82
0.42
0.56
2.84
3.82
16.8%
2024Q3
92
25.6
3.60
0.39
0.65
2.56
3.37
11.2%
2024Q2
91
25.4
4.15
0.26
0.73
3.17
3.93
11.1%
2024Q1
91
26.2
3.74
0.25
0.57
2.92
3.76
9.8%
2023Q4
92
26.9
3.56
0.24
0.63
2.69
3.47
6.9%
2023Q3
92
27.0
3.75
0.21
0.72
2.81
3.40
5.5%
2023Q2
91
26.1
4.02
0.25
0.89
2.88
3.49
10.0%
2023Q1
90
25.7
3.87
0.28
0.89
2.71
3.71
3.9%
2022Q4
92
26.3
3.69
0.26
0.94
2.50
3.55
17.3%
2022Q3
92
26.6
2.23
0.00
0.42
1.81
1.94
0.0%
2022Q2
91
29.0
3.41
0.30
0.57
2.54
3.21
12.0%
2022Q1
90
26.7
3.52
0.38
0.67
2.47
3.27
9.0%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0
No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
18
D × 14E × 3G × 1
deficiencies by survey year
Survey
Type
Tag
Deficiency
Scope
Corrected
2026-04-03
Health · complaint
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
D
2026-04-14
2025-12-19
Health
F0584
Honor the resident's right to a safe, clean, comfortable and homelike environment, including but not limited to receiving treatment and supports for daily living safely.
D
2026-01-23
2025-12-19
Health
F0628
Provide the required documentation or notification related to the resident's needs, appeal rights, or bed-hold policies.
E
2026-01-23
2025-12-19
Health
F0636
Assess the resident completely in a timely manner when first admitted, and then periodically, at least every 12 months.
D
2026-01-23
2025-12-19
Health
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
D
2026-01-23
2025-12-19
Health
F0676
Ensure residents do not lose the ability to perform activities of daily living unless there is a medical reason.
D
2026-01-23
2025-12-19
Health
F0677
Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable.
D
2026-01-23
2025-12-19
Health
F0679
Provide activities to meet all resident's needs.
D
2026-01-23
2025-12-19
Health
F0686
Provide appropriate pressure ulcer care and prevent new ulcers from developing.
D
2026-01-23
2025-12-19
Health
F0688
Provide appropriate care for a resident to maintain and/or improve range of motion (ROM), limited ROM and/or mobility, unless a decline is for a medical reason.
D
2026-01-23
2025-08-26
Health · complaint
F0585
Honor the resident's right to voice grievances without discrimination or reprisal and the facility must establish a grievance policy and make prompt efforts to resolve grievances.
D
2025-09-12
2024-08-16
Health
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
D
2024-09-24
2024-08-16
Health · complaint
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
G
2023-12-06
2024-08-16
Health
F0804
Ensure food and drink is palatable, attractive, and at a safe and appetizing temperature.
E
2024-09-24
2024-08-16
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
E
2024-09-24
2019-12-13
Health
F0550
Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights.
D
2020-01-23
2019-12-13
Health
F0600
Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody.
D
2020-01-23
2019-12-13
Health
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
D
2020-01-23
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
46
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
AVALON HEALTH CARE INC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
AVALON HEALTH CARE MANAGEMENT INC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-04-11
current
pecos_ownership
AVALON HEALTH CARE MANAGEMENT INC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
AVALON HOLDING INC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
AVALON REAL ESTATE LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
AVALON REALTY - SCAPPOOSE LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
BORISEVICH, MARIA
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2024-01-08
current
pecos_ownership
DANGERFIELD, DAVID
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2024-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
FATHIZADEH, ARASH
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-12-16
current
pecos_ownership
HASH, ALAN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
HUTCHINSON, JONATHAN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-05-01
current
pecos_ownership
HYRUM A KIRTON INDIVIDUAL TR
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-10-01
current
pecos_ownership
K-TEAM LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-10-01
current
pecos_ownership
KIRTON, BYRON
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2024-08-27
current
pecos_ownership
KIRTON, HYRUM
INDIVIDUAL IS AN OWNER, PARTNER OR TRUSTEE OF ANY ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-12-31
current
pecos_ownership
KIRTON, HYRUM
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2024-08-27
current
pecos_ownership
KIRTON, HYRUM
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
KIRTON, SPENCER
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-10-01
current
pecos_ownership
KIRTON, SPENCER
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2024-08-27
current
pecos_ownership
MOBERLY, RICHARD
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
NELSON, RYAN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
SMITH, NICOLE
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
SPENCER K KIRTON INDIVIDUAL TR
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-10-01
current
pecos_ownership
THE BYRON A KIRTON INDIVIDUAL TR
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-10-01
current
pecos_ownership
WOLTIL, ROBERT
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2024-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
AVALON HEALTH CARE INC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2024-06-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
AVALON HEALTH CARE, INC.
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2024-06-01
ended 2026-04-01
pecos_ownership
AVALON HOLDING, INC.
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2024-07-01
ended 2026-04-01
pecos_ownership
BYRON KIRTON
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
33%
2025-10-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
HYRUM KIRTON
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
33%
2025-10-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SPENCER KIRTON
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
33%
2025-10-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ALAN HASH
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ARASH FATHIZADEH
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-12-16
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
AVALON HEALTH CARE MANAGEMENT, INC.
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-07-01
ended 2026-04-01
pecos_ownership
AVALON HEALTH CARE, INC.
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-07-01
ended 2026-04-01
pecos_ownership
BYRON KIRTON
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2024-08-27
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DAVID DANGERFIELD
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2024-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
HYRUM KIRTON
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2024-08-27
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
HYRUM KIRTON
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2024-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JONATHAN HUTCHINSON
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-05-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MARIA BORISEVICH
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-01-08
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
NICOLE SMITH
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2024-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
RICHARD MOBERLY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ROBERT WOLTIL
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2024-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
RYAN NELSON
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SPENCER KIRTON
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2024-08-27
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
1
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-12-31
$134,323
—
—
—
$6,270
2
—
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
33
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 41009
acs median gross
0
$1,109
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 41009
fmr
0
$1,570
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 41009
acs median gross
1
$942
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 41009
fmr
1
$1,677
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 41009
acs median gross
2
$1,175
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 41009
fmr
2
$1,922
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 41009
acs median gross
3
$1,722
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 41009
fmr
3
$2,619
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 41009
acs median gross
4
$2,672
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 41009
fmr
4
$3,109
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 41009
acs median gross
5
$1,722
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 41009
acs median gross
$1,373
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 41009
acs recent mover gross
$1,803
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 97056
acs median gross
1
$665
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 97056
acs median gross
2
$1,398
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 97056
acs median gross
3
$1,777
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 97056
acs median gross
4
$2,729
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 97056
acs median gross
$1,617
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 97056
payment standard 110
0
$1,771
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 97056
payment standard 90
0
$1,449
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 97056
safmr
0
$1,610
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 97056
payment standard 110
1
$1,892
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 97056
payment standard 90
1
$1,548
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 97056
safmr
1
$1,720
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 97056
payment standard 110
2
$2,167
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 97056
payment standard 90
2
$1,773
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 97056
safmr
2
$1,970
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 97056
payment standard 110
3
$2,948
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 97056
payment standard 90
3
$2,412
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 97056
safmr
3
$2,680
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 97056
payment standard 110
4
$3,509
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 97056
payment standard 90
4
$2,871
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 97056
safmr
4
$3,190
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.