4062 ARLETA AVENUE NE, KEIZER, OR 97303 · CCN 385241 · chain VOLARE HEALTH LLC
Composite
2.5 / 100 percentile
Peer group
snf n = 14,684
Evidence depth
deep
Certified beds
49
Model
v1.2
Reads as: riskier than 2.5% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
10
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+20.6 vs natl
KNOX DONALD
16 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
50% fined
SMITH BRIAN
14 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
44% fined
HAGAR CHAIM
18 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
44% fined
VOLARE HEALTH LLC
16 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
44% fined
KNOX DONALD
16 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
42% fined
PAC 12 HOLDINGS LLC
12 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
42% fined
PAC 12 OPCO HOLDCO LLC
12 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
42% fined
PAC 12 PINNACLE HOLDCO LLC
12 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
42% fined
KNOX HEALTHCARE PAC 12 HOLDINGS LLC
12 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
42% fined
HAGLER ALEXANDER
12 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
OR median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
3.99
4.20
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.24
0.41
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
3.77
3.99
3.11
—
Weekday total
4.07
4.27
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
45.4
3.99
0.24
0.86
2.89
3.77
10.0%
2025Q3
92
43.3
4.17
0.27
0.90
3.01
3.79
10.3%
2025Q2
91
41.7
4.23
0.31
0.88
3.04
3.92
7.3%
2025Q1
90
42.3
4.46
0.37
0.84
3.26
4.19
17.2%
2024Q4
92
43.1
4.24
0.38
0.75
3.11
4.03
27.1%
2024Q3
92
41.7
4.24
0.33
0.90
3.01
3.85
23.1%
2024Q2
91
40.4
4.09
0.28
0.92
2.88
3.89
36.1%
2024Q1
91
39.8
3.46
0.19
0.79
2.48
3.40
35.6%
2023Q4
92
41.8
3.92
0.31
0.74
2.87
3.84
34.0%
2023Q3
92
41.4
2.50
0.23
0.56
1.71
2.18
8.6%
2023Q2
91
42.2
2.40
0.26
0.61
1.53
2.20
0.0%
2023Q1
90
43.8
3.60
0.14
0.96
2.50
3.43
20.7%
2022Q4
92
41.2
4.12
0.09
1.15
2.88
3.99
24.0%
2022Q3
92
40.3
3.75
0.21
1.01
2.52
3.61
21.7%
2022Q2
91
41.2
3.82
0.32
0.76
2.73
3.54
25.9%
2022Q1
90
40.3
3.02
0.23
0.74
2.05
2.72
25.4%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
D
2026-01-26
2025-12-17
Health · complaint
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
F
2026-01-26
2025-12-17
Health · complaint
F0813
Have a policy regarding use and storage of foods brought to residents by family and other visitors.
E
2026-01-26
2025-05-09
Health
F0580
Immediately tell the resident, the resident's doctor, and a family member of situations (injury/decline/room, etc.) that affect the resident.
D
2025-06-12
2025-05-09
Health
F0609
Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities.
D
2025-06-12
2025-05-09
Health
F0677
Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable.
D
2025-06-12
2025-05-09
Health
F0699
Provide care or services that was trauma informed and/or culturally competent.
D
2025-06-12
2025-05-09
Health
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
D
2025-06-12
2024-02-27
Health · complaint
F0580
Immediately tell the resident, the resident's doctor, and a family member of situations (injury/decline/room, etc.) that affect the resident.
D
2024-04-15
2024-02-27
Health · complaint
F0676
Ensure residents do not lose the ability to perform activities of daily living unless there is a medical reason.
D
2024-04-15
2024-02-27
Health · complaint
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
D
2024-04-15
2024-02-27
Health · complaint
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
D
2024-04-15
2024-02-27
Health · complaint
F0725
Provide enough nursing staff every day to meet the needs of every resident; and have a licensed nurse in charge on each shift.
E
2024-04-15
2024-02-27
Health · complaint
F0730
Observe each nurse aide's job performance and give regular training.
D
2024-04-15
2024-02-27
Health · complaint
F0732
Post nurse staffing information every day.
F
2024-04-15
2024-02-27
Health · complaint
F0755
Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist.
D
2024-04-15
2024-02-27
Health · complaint
F0770
Provide timely, quality laboratory services/tests to meet the needs of residents.
D
2024-04-15
2024-02-27
Health · complaint
F0810
Provide special eating equipment and utensils for residents who need them and appropriate assistance.
D
2024-04-15
2024-02-27
Health · complaint
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
E
2024-04-15
2024-02-27
Health · complaint
F0947
Ensure nurse aides have the skills they need to care for residents, and give nurse aides education in dementia care and abuse prevention.
E
2024-04-15
2023-09-14
Health · complaint
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
D
2023-10-10
2023-02-28
Health
F0584
Honor the resident's right to a safe, clean, comfortable and homelike environment, including but not limited to receiving treatment and supports for daily living safely.
E
2023-03-20
2023-02-28
Health
F0623
Provide timely notification to the resident, and if applicable to the resident representative and ombudsman, before transfer or discharge, including appeal rights.
D
2023-03-20
2023-02-28
Health
F0636
Assess the resident completely in a timely manner when first admitted, and then periodically, at least every 12 months.
D
2023-03-20
2023-02-28
Health
F0677
Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable.
D
2023-03-20
2023-02-28
Health
F0688
Provide appropriate care for a resident to maintain and/or improve range of motion (ROM), limited ROM and/or mobility, unless a decline is for a medical reason.
E
2023-03-20
2023-02-28
Health
F0692
Provide enough food/fluids to maintain a resident's health.
G
2023-03-20
2023-02-28
Health
F0725
Provide enough nursing staff every day to meet the needs of every resident; and have a licensed nurse in charge on each shift.
E
2023-03-20
2023-02-28
Health
F0730
Observe each nurse aide's job performance and give regular training.
E
2023-03-20
2023-02-28
Health
F0732
Post nurse staffing information every day.
D
2023-03-20
2023-02-28
Health
F0757
Ensure each resident’s drug regimen must be free from unnecessary drugs.
D
2023-03-20
2023-02-28
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
D
2023-03-20
2023-02-28
Health
F0840
Employ or obtain outside professional resources to provide services in the nursing home when the facility does not employ a qualified professional to furnish a required service.
D
2023-03-20
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
26
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
PAC 12 OPCO HOLDCO LLC
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2023-03-01
current
pecos_ownership
KEIZER PROPCO LLC
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
5%
2023-03-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
KEIZER PROPCO LLC
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
5%
2024-01-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
DUNHAM, SARAH
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
HAGAR, CHAIM
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-03-01
current
pecos_ownership
HAGLER, ALEXANDER
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2023-03-01
current
pecos_ownership
HANSON, KANDIS
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-03-01
current
pecos_ownership
KEIZER PROPCO LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-03-01
current
pecos_ownership
KNOX HEALTHCARE PAC 12 HOLDINGS LLC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2023-03-01
current
pecos_ownership
KNOX, DONALD
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-03-01
current
pecos_ownership
PAC 12 HOLDINGS LLC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2023-03-01
current
pecos_ownership
PAC 12 PINNACLE HOLDCO LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-03-01
current
pecos_ownership
SCHWARTZ, ELIEZER
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-03-01
current
pecos_ownership
SMITH, BRIAN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-03-27
current
pecos_ownership
VOLARE HEALTH LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-08-19
current
pecos_ownership
VOLARE HEALTH LLC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-03-01
current
pecos_ownership
AVALON REALTY - KEIZER
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
100%
2021-11-01
ended 2022-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
AVALON REALTY - KEIZER
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
100%
2023-01-01
ended 2023-02-28
hcris_a_8_1
BRIAN SMITH
CORPORATE OFFICER
100%
2023-03-27
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DONALD KNOX
CORPORATE OFFICER
100%
2023-03-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ELIEZER SCHWARTZ
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
34%
2023-03-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CHAIM HAGAR
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
31%
2023-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ALEXANDER HAGLER
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
24%
2023-03-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CHAIM HAGAR
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-03-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
KANDIS HANSON
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-03-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SARAH DUNHAM
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
5
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-12-31
$2,071,653
$1,847,679
$223,974
—
—
1
propco
2023-12-31
$1,571,630
$1,571,630
—
—
—
1
propco
2023-02-28
$89,757
—
—
—
$2,094
3
propco
2022-12-31
$705,567
—
—
—
$196,534
3
propco
2020-12-31
$769,027
$420,000
—
—
—
5
—
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
35
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 41047
acs median gross
0
$1,161
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 41047
fmr
0
$1,181
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 41047
acs median gross
1
$1,101
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 41047
fmr
1
$1,201
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 41047
acs median gross
2
$1,419
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 41047
fmr
2
$1,560
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 41047
acs median gross
3
$1,771
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 41047
fmr
3
$2,159
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 41047
acs median gross
4
$1,908
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 41047
fmr
4
$2,338
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 41047
acs median gross
5
$1,908
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 41047
acs median gross
$1,414
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 41047
acs recent mover gross
$1,673
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 97303
acs median gross
1
$1,198
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 97303
acs median gross
2
$1,395
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 97303
acs median gross
3
$1,756
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 97303
acs median gross
4
$1,858
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 97303
acs median gross
5
$2,824
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 97303
acs median gross
$1,415
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 97303
acs recent mover gross
$1,683
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 97303
payment standard 110
0
$1,287
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 97303
payment standard 90
0
$1,053
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 97303
safmr
0
$1,170
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 97303
payment standard 110
1
$1,309
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 97303
payment standard 90
1
$1,071
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 97303
safmr
1
$1,190
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 97303
payment standard 110
2
$1,694
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 97303
payment standard 90
2
$1,386
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 97303
safmr
2
$1,540
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 97303
payment standard 110
3
$2,343
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 97303
payment standard 90
3
$1,917
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 97303
safmr
3
$2,130
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 97303
payment standard 110
4
$2,541
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 97303
payment standard 90
4
$2,079
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 97303
safmr
4
$2,310
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.