Reads as: riskier than 10.3% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
1
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
4 chains
LIFE CARE SERVICES LLC
58 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
CT median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
4.56
3.46
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
1.11
0.40
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
4.22
3.25
3.11
—
Weekday total
4.70
3.51
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
39.0
4.56
1.11
0.36
3.09
4.22
1.8%
2025Q3
92
37.4
4.66
1.10
0.37
3.19
4.38
3.2%
2025Q2
91
37.7
4.56
1.19
0.29
3.08
4.18
3.5%
2025Q1
90
37.7
4.64
1.20
0.28
3.17
4.29
4.8%
2024Q4
92
36.6
4.67
1.05
0.38
3.24
4.35
5.5%
2024Q3
92
36.7
4.55
1.00
0.46
3.09
4.32
11.5%
2024Q2
91
37.2
4.81
1.17
0.41
3.23
4.48
9.4%
2024Q1
91
39.1
4.56
1.13
0.40
3.03
4.06
7.5%
2023Q4
92
38.9
4.46
1.06
0.41
2.99
4.00
9.5%
2023Q3
92
38.1
4.45
1.11
0.42
2.92
4.08
13.6%
2023Q2
91
38.3
4.53
1.12
0.41
2.99
4.14
12.5%
2023Q1
90
36.1
4.68
1.23
0.36
3.09
4.29
13.9%
2022Q4
92
36.4
4.80
1.18
0.42
3.21
4.21
11.7%
2022Q3
92
37.9
4.26
1.09
0.39
2.79
3.58
6.2%
2022Q2
91
38.1
4.28
1.13
0.45
2.70
3.62
4.0%
2022Q1
90
37.2
4.40
1.22
0.40
2.78
3.94
2.6%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0
No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
17
D × 14E × 3
deficiencies by survey year
Survey
Type
Tag
Deficiency
Scope
Corrected
2025-11-21
Health · complaint
F0580
Immediately tell the resident, the resident's doctor, and a family member of situations (injury/decline/room, etc.) that affect the resident.
D
2026-01-02
2025-11-21
Health · complaint
F0658
Ensure services provided by the nursing facility meet professional standards of quality.
D
2026-01-02
2025-01-10
Health
F0580
Immediately tell the resident, the resident's doctor, and a family member of situations (injury/decline/room, etc.) that affect the resident.
E
2025-02-21
2025-01-10
Health
F0609
Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities.
E
2025-02-21
2025-01-10
Health
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
D
2025-02-21
2025-01-10
Health
F0692
Provide enough food/fluids to maintain a resident's health.
D
2025-02-21
2025-01-10
Health
F0755
Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist.
D
2025-02-21
2025-01-10
Health
F0758
Implement gradual dose reductions(GDR) and non-pharmacological interventions, unless contraindicated, prior to initiating or instead of continuing psychotropic medication; and PRN orders for psychotropic medications are only used when the medication is necessary and PRN use is limited.
D
2025-02-21
2024-11-26
Health · complaint
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
D
2025-01-07
2022-11-14
Health
F0600
Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody.
D
2022-12-26
2022-11-14
Health
F0609
Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities.
E
2022-12-26
2022-11-14
Health
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
D
2022-12-26
2022-11-14
Health
F0657
Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals.
D
2022-12-26
2022-11-14
Health
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
D
2022-12-26
2020-01-13
Health
F0609
Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities.
D
2020-02-24
2020-01-13
Health
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
D
2020-02-24
2020-01-13
Health
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
D
2020-02-24
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
41
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
BANK OF AMERICA CORP
5% OR GREATER MORTGAGE INTEREST
—
2025-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
BIRD, JOHN
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2024-03-15
current
pecos_ownership
DESS, KATHLEEN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2011-09-29
current
pecos_ownership
DUFFY, PATRICK
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2025-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
LAHEY, DANIEL
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2024-03-15
current
pecos_ownership
LCS ESSEX MEADOWS HOLDCO LLC
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2025-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
LCS ESSEX MEADOWS JV LLC
DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2025-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
LCS HOLDING COMPANY LLC
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2025-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
LCS MANAGEMENT HOLDING COMPANY, LLC
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2025-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
LIFE CARE COMPANIES LLC
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2025-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
LIFE CARE SERVICES COMMUNITIES, LLC
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2025-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
LIFE CARE SERVICES LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-02-24
current
pecos_ownership
LIFE CARE SERVICES LLC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
LINDNER, MEREDITH
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-03-15
current
pecos_ownership
LYNCH, MARIKATE
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-03-15
current
pecos_ownership
LYNCH, MARIKATE
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-02-16
current
pecos_ownership
MCCARTHY GROUP LLC
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2025-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
MPM SENIOR LIVING INVESTORS LLC
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2025-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
OAK INVESTMENT TRUST
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2025-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
OAK INVESTMENT TRUST II
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2025-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
RCI LEGACY HOLDINGS LLC
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2025-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
REDWOOD HOLDINGS, LLC
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2025-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
SHAW, GELYNNA
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2024-03-15
current
pecos_ownership
UHLEMANN, BRIDGETTE
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2024-03-15
current
pecos_ownership
VICTOR, JASON
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2024-03-15
current
pecos_ownership
LCS ESSEX MEADOWS JV LLC
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2024-03-15
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
LCS ESSEX MEADOWS HOLDCO LLC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
10%
2024-03-15
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
LCS HOLDING COMPANY LLC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
10%
2024-03-15
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
LIFE CARE COMPANIES LLC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
10%
2024-03-15
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PATRICK DUFFY
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
2%
2025-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MCCARTHY PARTNERS, LLC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
1%
2025-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JAMES DAVIS
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
0%
2025-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DANIEL LAHEY
CORPORATE OFFICER
0%
2024-03-15
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
GELYNNA SHAW
CORPORATE OFFICER
0%
2024-03-15
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOHN BIRD
CORPORATE OFFICER
0%
2024-03-15
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
BRIDGETTE UHLEMANN
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2024-03-15
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JASON VICTOR
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2024-03-15
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
KATHLEEN DESS
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2011-09-29
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MARIKATE LYNCH
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-02-16
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MARIKATE LYNCH
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-03-15
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MEREDITH LINDNER
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-03-15
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
0
No related-party cost years on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
26
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 09130
acs median gross
0
$664
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 09130
acs median gross
1
$1,272
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 09130
acs median gross
2
$1,614
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 09130
acs median gross
3
$1,816
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 09130
acs median gross
4
$1,989
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 09130
acs median gross
5
$3,501
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 09130
acs median gross
$1,454
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 09130
acs recent mover gross
$1,719
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 06426
acs median gross
1
$1,573
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 06426
acs median gross
2
$1,975
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 06426
acs median gross
$1,860
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 06426
payment standard 110
0
$1,617
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 06426
payment standard 90
0
$1,323
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 06426
safmr
0
$1,470
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 06426
payment standard 110
1
$1,859
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 06426
payment standard 90
1
$1,521
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 06426
safmr
1
$1,690
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 06426
payment standard 110
2
$2,343
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 06426
payment standard 90
2
$1,917
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 06426
safmr
2
$2,130
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 06426
payment standard 110
3
$2,805
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 06426
payment standard 90
3
$2,295
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 06426
safmr
3
$2,550
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 06426
payment standard 110
4
$3,190
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 06426
payment standard 90
4
$2,610
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 06426
safmr
4
$2,900
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.