Composite
9.6 / 100 percentile
| Component | Percentile | Raw | Weight | Weight share | Contribution | Counts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| staffing risk | 76.9 | 76.9 | 0.25 | 0.1923 | 14.79 | in index |
| regulatory risk | 31.1 | 21.5 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 7.18 | in index |
| financial risk | 18.4 | 25.9 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 4.25 | in index |
| chow risk | 25.3 | 24.3 | 0.15 | 0.1154 | 2.92 | in index |
| billing conduct | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 0.00 | in index |
| Score type | Score | Grade | Model | Status | Registry model notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| billing conduct | 0.0 | A | v0.1-pacpuf-snf | default · in composite | R22. PAC PUF SNF 2023. PDPM coding intensity vs acuity, stay length, charge markup. |
| chow risk | 25.0 | B | v0.1-pos | default · in composite | Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure. |
| chow risk | 23.7 | A | v0.6 | default · in composite | |
| financial risk | 25.9 | B | v0.5 | default · in composite | R18. |
| p adverse action 12m | 0.4 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite. |
| p chow 12m | 1.5 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite. |
| regulatory risk | 21.5 | A | v0.3 | default · in composite | Deficiency-based, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.5-pos. |
| staffing risk | 76.9 | D | v0.3 | default · in composite | Cost-report staffing, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.4-pos, which covers ICF/IID from POS. |
| financial risk | 74.3 | D | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 54.3 | C | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 45.9 | C | v0.3 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 30.6 | B | v0.4 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 21.3 | A | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 21.3 | A | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 76.9 | D | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 76.9 | D | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| For-profit ownership | 1.00 | +0.69 | |
| Never sold on record | 1.00 | +0.62 | |
| Current owner tenure (years) | 25.00 | +0.57 | |
| Occupancy | 0.89 | -0.57 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.42 | |
| Chain size (log) | 0.00 | -0.40 | |
| Ownership changes, last 5 years | 0.00 | +0.20 | |
| Deficiencies, last 12 months | 0.00 | -0.17 |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deficiencies, last 12 months | 0.00 | +1.43 | |
| Chain size (log) | 0.00 | +1.20 | |
| For-profit ownership | 1.00 | -0.69 | |
| Occupancy | 0.89 | -0.61 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.39 | |
| Fine amount, 12m (log) | 0.00 | +0.18 | |
| Total nurse staffing (HPRD) | 2.87 | +0.15 | |
| Facility size (log beds) | 5.02 | -0.14 |
| 2025Q4 HPRD | This facility | CT median | National median | National p25–p75 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total nurse | 2.87 | 3.46 | 3.28 | 2.90–3.77 |
| RN | 0.26 | 0.40 | 0.39 | 0.25–0.58 |
| Weekend total | 2.72 | 3.25 | 3.11 | — |
| Weekday total | 2.92 | 3.51 | 3.35 | — |
| Quarter | Days | Avg census | Total HPRD | RN | LPN | CNA | Weekend | Contract % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025Q4 | 92 | 134.1 | 2.87 | 0.26 | 0.68 | 1.92 | 2.72 | 0.7% |
| 2025Q3 | 92 | 135.6 | 2.86 | 0.22 | 0.74 | 1.89 | 2.73 | 2.9% |
| 2025Q2 | 91 | 137.2 | 2.84 | 0.19 | 0.76 | 1.89 | 2.71 | 1.9% |
| 2025Q1 | 90 | 133.0 | 3.05 | 0.20 | 0.85 | 2.00 | 2.84 | 1.2% |
| 2024Q4 | 92 | 135.6 | 3.07 | 0.20 | 0.84 | 2.03 | 2.81 | 2.9% |
| 2024Q3 | 92 | 134.9 | 3.18 | 0.18 | 0.89 | 2.11 | 2.98 | 1.9% |
| 2024Q2 | 91 | 136.9 | 3.19 | 0.17 | 0.85 | 2.17 | 3.02 | 2.2% |
| 2024Q1 | 91 | 138.6 | 2.90 | 0.17 | 0.81 | 1.92 | 2.77 | 0.5% |
| 2023Q4 | 92 | 136.7 | 3.06 | 0.22 | 0.86 | 1.98 | 2.95 | 1.0% |
| 2023Q3 | 92 | 138.2 | 2.88 | 0.00 | 0.86 | 2.01 | 2.73 | 2.2% |
| 2023Q2 | 91 | 135.3 | 2.85 | 0.01 | 0.83 | 2.00 | 2.73 | 2.0% |
| 2023Q1 | 90 | 136.1 | 2.74 | 0.01 | 0.80 | 1.92 | 2.65 | 2.1% |
| 2022Q4 | 92 | 126.5 | 2.92 | 0.00 | 0.90 | 2.01 | 2.78 | 1.2% |
| 2022Q3 | 92 | 121.8 | 2.92 | 0.01 | 0.85 | 2.05 | 2.70 | 2.5% |
| 2022Q2 | 91 | 121.8 | 2.76 | 0.00 | 0.85 | 1.91 | 2.61 | 2.3% |
| 2022Q1 | 90 | 116.9 | 2.78 | 0.01 | 0.80 | 1.97 | 2.70 | 0.1% |
| Survey | Type | Tag | Deficiency | Scope | Corrected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-11 | Health | F0565 | Honor the resident's right to organize and participate in resident/family groups in the facility. | C | 2025-05-23 |
| 2025-04-11 | Health | F0568 | Properly hold, secure, and manage each resident's personal money which is deposited with the nursing home. | B | 2025-05-23 |
| 2025-04-11 | Health | F0584 | Honor the resident's right to a safe, clean, comfortable and homelike environment, including but not limited to receiving treatment and supports for daily living safely. | E | 2025-05-23 |
| 2025-04-11 | Health | F0657 | Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals. | B | 2025-05-23 |
| 2025-04-11 | Health | F0658 | Ensure services provided by the nursing facility meet professional standards of quality. | D | — |
| 2025-04-11 | Health | F0688 | Provide appropriate care for a resident to maintain and/or improve range of motion (ROM), limited ROM and/or mobility, unless a decline is for a medical reason. | D | 2025-05-23 |
| 2025-04-11 | Health | F0698 | Provide safe, appropriate dialysis care/services for a resident who requires such services. | D | 2025-05-23 |
| 2025-04-11 | Health | F0804 | Ensure food and drink is palatable, attractive, and at a safe and appetizing temperature. | E | 2025-05-23 |
| 2025-04-11 | Health | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | E | 2025-05-23 |
| 2025-04-11 | Health | F0921 | Make sure that the nursing home area is safe, easy to use, clean and comfortable for residents, staff and the public. | D | 2025-05-23 |
| 2025-04-11 | Health | F0926 | Have policies on smoking. | D | 2025-05-23 |
| 2024-12-19 | Health · complaint | F0609 | Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities. | D | 2025-01-21 |
| 2024-11-19 | Health · complaint | F0585 | Honor the resident's right to voice grievances without discrimination or reprisal and the facility must establish a grievance policy and make prompt efforts to resolve grievances. | D | 2024-12-11 |
| 2024-11-19 | Health · complaint | F0609 | Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities. | D | 2024-12-11 |
| 2024-04-03 | Health · complaint | F0580 | Immediately tell the resident, the resident's doctor, and a family member of situations (injury/decline/room, etc.) that affect the resident. | D | 2024-05-15 |
| 2024-04-03 | Health · complaint | F0684 | Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals. | D | 2024-05-15 |
| 2023-06-27 | Health | F0550 | Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights. | E | 2023-08-12 |
| 2023-06-27 | Health · complaint | F0580 | Immediately tell the resident, the resident's doctor, and a family member of situations (injury/decline/room, etc.) that affect the resident. | D | 2023-08-12 |
| 2023-06-27 | Health | F0609 | Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities. | D | 2023-08-12 |
| 2023-06-27 | Health | F0610 | Respond appropriately to all alleged violations. | D | 2023-08-12 |
| 2023-06-27 | Health | F0644 | Coordinate assessments with the pre-admission screening and resident review program; and referring for services as needed. | D | 2023-08-12 |
| 2023-06-27 | Health | F0684 | Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals. | E | 2023-08-12 |
| 2023-06-27 | Health | F0688 | Provide appropriate care for a resident to maintain and/or improve range of motion (ROM), limited ROM and/or mobility, unless a decline is for a medical reason. | D | 2023-08-12 |
| 2023-06-27 | Health | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | D | 2023-08-12 |
| 2023-06-27 | Health | F0695 | Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed. | D | 2023-08-12 |
| 2023-06-27 | Health | F0756 | Ensure a licensed pharmacist perform a monthly drug regimen review, including the medical chart, following irregularity reporting guidelines in developed policies and procedures. | D | 2023-08-12 |
| 2021-06-24 | Health | F0550 | Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights. | D | 2021-08-05 |
| 2021-06-24 | Health | F0580 | Immediately tell the resident, the resident's doctor, and a family member of situations (injury/decline/room, etc.) that affect the resident. | E | 2021-08-05 |
| 2021-06-24 | Health | F0658 | Ensure services provided by the nursing facility meet professional standards of quality. | D | 2021-08-05 |
| 2021-06-24 | Health | F0684 | Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals. | E | 2021-08-05 |
| 2021-06-24 | Health | F0711 | Ensure the resident's doctor reviews the resident's care, writes, signs and dates progress notes and orders, at each required visit. | D | 2021-08-05 |
| 2021-06-24 | Health | F0759 | Ensure medication error rates are not 5 percent or greater. | D | 2021-08-05 |
| 2021-06-24 | Health | F0761 | Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs. | D | 2021-08-05 |
| 2021-06-24 | Health | F0790 | Provide routine and 24-hour emergency dental care for each resident. | D | 2021-08-05 |
| 2021-06-24 | Health | F0882 | Designate a qualified infection preventionist to be responsible for the infection prevent and control program in the nursing home. | C | 2021-09-24 |
| Owner | Role | Pct | From | Status | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| REALTY COMPANY | Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider | 100% | 2023-01-01 | current | hcris_a_8_1 |
| REALTY COMPANY | Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider | 100% | 2024-01-01 | current | hcris_a_8_1 |
| CREATIVE INVESTMENT LLC | 5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 45% | 2019-01-25 | current | pecos_ownership |
| KRAUSZ, BATSHEVA | 5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 45% | 2019-01-25 | current | pecos_ownership |
| SILVER INVESTMENT LLC | 5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 45% | 2019-01-25 | current | pecos_ownership |
| LANDI, MICHAEL | W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE | — | 2019-01-25 | current | pecos_ownership |
| WRIGHT, CHRISTOPHER | CORPORATE OFFICER | — | 2019-01-25 | current | pecos_ownership |
| REALTY COMPANY | Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider | 100% | 2020-01-01 | ended 2020-12-31 | hcris_a_8_1 |
| REALTY COMPANY | Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider | 100% | 2021-01-01 | ended 2021-12-31 | hcris_a_8_1 |
| REALTY COMPANY | Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider | 100% | 2022-01-01 | ended 2022-12-31 | hcris_a_8_1 |
| Close | Facility | Price | $/bed | Cap rate | Beds | Buyer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-21 | INGRAHAM MANOR REHAB AND NURSING | — | — | — | 128 | IM OPCO LLC |
| 2025-05-15 | HAVENCARE AT LITCHFIELD WOODS | — | — | — | 160 | LITCHFIELD OPCO LLC |
| 2025-05-15 | HAVENCARE AT VALERIE MANOR | — | — | — | 151 | VALERIE OPCO LLC |
| 2024-10-10 | SHADY KNOLL CENTER FOR HEALTH & REHABILITATION | — | — | — | 128 | SHADY KNOLL ACQUISITION OPERATOR LLC |
| 2024-10-10 | MAEFAIR CENTER FOR HEALTH & REHABILITATION | — | — | — | 134 | MAEFAIR ACQUISITION OPERATOR LLC |
| 2024-10-10 | GLASTONBURY CENTER FOR HEALTH & REHABILITATION | — | — | — | 105 | GLASTONBURY ACQUISITION OPERATOR LLC |
| 2024-08-01 | MANSFIELD CENTER FOR NURSING AND REHABILITATION | — | — | — | 98 | MANSFIELD ACQUISITION OPERATOR LLC |
| 2024-06-07 | EVERGREEN CENTER FOR HEALTH & REHABILITATION | — | — | — | 180 | EVERGREEN ACQUISITION OPERATOR LLC |
| 2024-06-07 | MONTOWESE CENTER FOR HEALTH & REHABILITATION | — | — | — | 120 | MONTOWESE ACQUISITION OPERATOR LLC |
| 2024-06-07 | SHARON CENTER FOR HEALTH & REHABILITATION | — | — | — | 88 | SHARON ACQUISITION OPERATOR LLC |
| 2024-06-07 | BEACON BROOK CENTER FOR HEALTH & REHABILITATION | — | — | — | 126 | BEACON BROOK ACQUISITION OPERATOR LLC |
| 2024-06-07 | STONE BRIDGE CENTER FOR HEALTH & REHABILITATION | — | — | — | 154 | NEWTOWN ACQUISITION OPERATOR LLC |
| Geo | Kind | BR | Amount | As of | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| county 09110 | acs median gross | 0 | $1,036 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 09110 | acs median gross | 1 | $1,183 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 09110 | acs median gross | 2 | $1,532 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 09110 | acs median gross | 3 | $1,594 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 09110 | acs median gross | 4 | $1,851 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 09110 | acs median gross | 5 | $2,536 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 09110 | acs median gross | $1,411 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| county 09110 | acs recent mover gross | $1,678 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 06106 | acs median gross | 0 | $1,147 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 06106 | acs median gross | 1 | $1,027 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 06106 | acs median gross | 2 | $1,325 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 06106 | acs median gross | 3 | $1,440 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 06106 | acs median gross | 4 | $1,714 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 06106 | acs median gross | 5 | $2,510 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 06106 | acs median gross | $1,274 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 06106 | acs recent mover gross | $1,472 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zip 06106 | payment standard 110 | 0 | $1,243 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 06106 | payment standard 90 | 0 | $1,017 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 06106 | safmr | 0 | $1,130 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 06106 | payment standard 110 | 1 | $1,430 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 06106 | payment standard 90 | 1 | $1,170 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 06106 | safmr | 1 | $1,300 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 06106 | payment standard 110 | 2 | $1,804 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 06106 | payment standard 90 | 2 | $1,476 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 06106 | safmr | 2 | $1,640 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 06106 | payment standard 110 | 3 | $2,167 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 06106 | payment standard 90 | 3 | $1,773 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 06106 | safmr | 3 | $1,970 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 06106 | payment standard 110 | 4 | $2,453 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 06106 | payment standard 90 | 4 | $2,007 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 06106 | safmr | 4 | $2,230 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |