Reads as: riskier than 93.0% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
1
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
12 chains
CAPITAL FINANCE LLC
33 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
15
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
NJ median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
3.34
3.31
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.17
0.35
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
3.24
3.21
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.37
3.37
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
73.5
3.34
0.17
1.04
2.12
3.24
0.0%
2025Q3
92
73.3
2.95
0.14
0.89
1.92
2.94
0.0%
2025Q2
91
71.0
3.03
0.10
0.96
1.97
3.06
0.0%
2025Q1
90
75.0
2.99
0.02
1.11
1.86
2.92
0.0%
2024Q4
92
76.6
2.88
0.07
0.94
1.87
2.90
0.2%
2024Q3
92
72.5
2.91
0.07
0.91
1.93
2.81
0.5%
2024Q2
91
69.4
3.02
0.04
0.94
2.04
2.99
0.0%
2024Q1
91
67.6
2.87
0.00
0.90
1.97
2.80
0.0%
2023Q4
92
69.5
2.93
0.04
0.81
2.08
2.67
0.0%
2023Q3
92
71.9
3.10
0.08
0.94
2.08
2.88
21.1%
2023Q2
91
66.0
3.03
0.01
0.93
2.10
2.79
7.4%
2023Q1
90
71.9
3.23
0.03
1.06
2.13
2.91
5.2%
2022Q4
92
71.8
3.11
0.11
0.94
2.06
2.87
4.6%
2022Q3
92
76.2
3.10
0.17
0.81
2.11
2.81
1.2%
2022Q2
91
70.2
3.08
0.20
0.97
1.92
2.81
0.0%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0
No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
30
D × 17E × 10F × 3
deficiencies by survey year
Survey
Type
Tag
Deficiency
Scope
Corrected
2026-03-26
Health · complaint
F0802
Provide sufficient support personnel to safely and effectively carry out the functions of the food and nutrition service.
F
2026-04-10
2026-03-26
Health
F0803
Ensure menus must meet the nutritional needs of residents, be prepared in advance, be followed, be updated, be reviewed by dietician, and meet the needs of the resident.
D
2026-04-10
2026-03-26
Health
F0814
Dispose of garbage and refuse properly.
E
2026-04-22
2026-03-26
Health
F0881
Implement a program that monitors antibiotic use.
E
2026-04-07
2024-12-11
Health · complaint
F0584
Honor the resident's right to a safe, clean, comfortable and homelike environment, including but not limited to receiving treatment and supports for daily living safely.
D
2024-12-24
2024-12-11
Health
F0600
Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody.
D
2024-12-17
2024-12-11
Health
F0623
Provide timely notification to the resident, and if applicable to the resident representative and ombudsman, before transfer or discharge, including appeal rights.
D
2024-12-12
2024-12-11
Health
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
E
2024-12-16
2024-12-11
Health
F0658
Ensure services provided by the nursing facility meet professional standards of quality.
D
2024-12-12
2024-12-11
Health
F0686
Provide appropriate pressure ulcer care and prevent new ulcers from developing.
D
2024-12-18
2024-12-11
Health
F0698
Provide safe, appropriate dialysis care/services for a resident who requires such services.
D
2024-12-12
2024-12-11
Health
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
D
2024-12-12
2024-12-11
Health
F0810
Provide special eating equipment and utensils for residents who need them and appropriate assistance.
D
2024-12-12
2024-12-11
Health · complaint
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
F
2024-12-12
2024-12-11
Health
F0814
Dispose of garbage and refuse properly.
D
2024-12-12
2024-12-11
Health
F0868
Have the Quality Assessment and Assurance group have the required members and meet at least quarterly
D
2024-12-12
2024-12-11
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
F
2024-12-23
2024-12-11
Health
F0881
Implement a program that monitors antibiotic use.
E
2024-12-24
2024-12-11
Health
F0883
Develop and implement policies and procedures for flu and pneumonia vaccinations.
E
2024-12-24
2024-12-11
Health
F0887
Educate residents and staff on COVID-19 vaccination, offer the COVID-19 vaccine to eligible residents and staff after education, and properly document each resident and staff member's vaccination status.
E
2024-12-24
2024-12-11
Health
F0921
Make sure that the nursing home area is safe, easy to use, clean and comfortable for residents, staff and the public.
E
2024-12-12
2023-09-07
Health · complaint
F0558
Reasonably accommodate the needs and preferences of each resident.
D
2023-09-15
2023-09-07
Health
F0655
Create and put into place a plan for meeting the resident's most immediate needs within 48 hours of being admitted
D
2023-09-11
2023-09-07
Health · complaint
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
D
2023-09-11
2023-09-07
Health
F0695
Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed.
D
2023-09-11
2023-09-07
Health
F0698
Provide safe, appropriate dialysis care/services for a resident who requires such services.
E
2023-09-15
2023-09-07
Health
F0756
Ensure a licensed pharmacist perform a monthly drug regimen review, including the medical chart, following irregularity reporting guidelines in developed policies and procedures.
E
2023-09-11
2023-09-07
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
E
2023-09-20
2023-07-28
Health · complaint
F0755
Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist.
D
2023-09-09
2023-07-28
Health · complaint
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2023-09-09
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
29
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
BIG OAK
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
100%
2023-05-02
current
hcris_a_8_1
GARDENS HOLDCO LLC
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2023-05-02
current
pecos_ownership
849 BIG OAK RD HOLDINGS LLC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2023-05-02
current
pecos_ownership
849 BIG OAK RD LLC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2023-05-02
current
pecos_ownership
849 BIG OAK ROAD
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
—
2024-01-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
AMO HOLDINGS LLC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2023-05-02
current
pecos_ownership
AMO TRUST
TRUSTEE OF THE SNF
—
2023-05-02
current
pecos_ownership
BAGZ HOLDINGS, LLC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2023-05-02
current
pecos_ownership
CAPITAL FINANCE LLC
5% OR GREATER SECURITY INTEREST
—
2023-05-02
current
pecos_ownership
CZIMENT, RAFAEL
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-11-07
current
pecos_ownership
CZIMENT, RAFAEL
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-11-06
current
pecos_ownership
GASTWIRTH, JOSHUA
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-11-06
current
pecos_ownership
JCG HOLDINGS LLC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2023-05-02
current
pecos_ownership
JGOP LLC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2023-05-02
current
pecos_ownership
JSOP HOLDINGS LLC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2023-05-02
current
pecos_ownership
MANDEL, JOSEPH
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2023-05-02
current
pecos_ownership
SCHUSTER, JEREMY
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2023-05-02
current
pecos_ownership
SCHUSTER, JEREMY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-11-06
current
pecos_ownership
SJR HOLDINGS LLC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2023-05-02
current
pecos_ownership
BIG OAK
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
100%
2023-01-01
ended 2023-05-01
hcris_a_8_1
BIG OAK REALTY
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
100%
2022-01-01
ended 2022-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
JOSEPH MANDEL
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
100%
2023-05-02
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOSHUA GASTWIRTH
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
38%
2023-05-02
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JEREMY SCHUSTER
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
25%
2023-05-02
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JEREMY SCHUSTER
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
25%
2024-11-06
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ABE AND RACHEL BAK FAMILY TRUST
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
15%
2023-05-02
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOSHUA GASTWIRTH
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-11-06
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
RAFAEL CZIMENT
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-11-06
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
RAFAEL CZIMENT
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-11-07
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
6
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-12-31
$970,833
—
—
—
—
2
propco
2023-12-31
$974,231
—
—
—
—
7
propco
2023-05-01
$493,519
—
—
—
—
7
propco
2022-12-31
$1,338,690
—
—
—
—
8
propco
2021-12-31
$435,005
—
$420,439
—
—
2
—
2020-12-31
$505,909
—
$488,513
—
—
2
—
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
34
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 34033
acs median gross
0
$1,067
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 34033
fmr
0
$1,397
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 34033
acs median gross
1
$1,067
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 34033
fmr
1
$1,520
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 34033
acs median gross
2
$1,205
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 34033
fmr
2
$1,810
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 34033
acs median gross
3
$1,643
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 34033
fmr
3
$2,170
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 34033
acs median gross
4
$1,670
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 34033
fmr
4
$2,423
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 34033
acs median gross
5
$1,509
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 34033
acs median gross
$1,253
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 34033
acs recent mover gross
$1,677
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 08318
acs median gross
1
$1,008
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 08318
acs median gross
2
$1,242
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 08318
acs median gross
3
$1,619
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 08318
acs median gross
4
$2,081
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 08318
acs median gross
$1,349
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 08318
acs recent mover gross
$1,320
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 08318
payment standard 110
0
$1,540
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 08318
payment standard 90
0
$1,260
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 08318
safmr
0
$1,400
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 08318
payment standard 110
1
$1,683
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 08318
payment standard 90
1
$1,377
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 08318
safmr
1
$1,530
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 08318
payment standard 110
2
$2,002
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 08318
payment standard 90
2
$1,638
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 08318
safmr
2
$1,820
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 08318
payment standard 110
3
$2,398
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 08318
payment standard 90
3
$1,962
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 08318
safmr
3
$2,180
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 08318
payment standard 110
4
$2,684
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 08318
payment standard 90
4
$2,196
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 08318
safmr
4
$2,440
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.