Reads as: riskier than 41.6% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
7
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
6 chains
MILLER ROBERT
31 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
5 chains
LIBERTY HEALTHCARE MANAGEMENT INC
30 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
4 chains
CALCUTT JOSEPH
34 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
4 chains
OLIVER ANNA
25 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
4 chains
MCNEILL JOHN
31 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
4 chains
MCNEILL RONALD
29 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
4 chains
LONG TERM CARE MANAGEMENT SERVICES LLC
33 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
NC median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
3.30
3.08
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.30
0.30
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
3.21
2.93
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.33
3.14
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
78.2
3.30
0.30
0.87
2.13
3.21
4.9%
2025Q3
92
78.9
3.38
0.30
0.88
2.20
3.22
21.6%
2025Q2
91
78.7
3.25
0.27
0.82
2.15
3.08
20.4%
2025Q1
90
79.5
3.02
0.23
0.79
2.00
2.87
23.8%
2024Q4
92
74.3
3.13
0.28
0.70
2.15
2.86
23.1%
2024Q3
92
74.1
3.03
0.30
0.77
1.96
2.85
17.5%
2024Q2
91
75.8
3.12
0.23
0.83
2.05
2.98
33.2%
2024Q1
91
76.4
3.15
0.20
0.87
2.08
3.04
33.5%
2023Q4
92
72.0
2.96
0.12
0.91
1.94
2.92
23.4%
2023Q3
92
72.4
2.98
0.15
0.81
2.02
2.85
20.3%
2023Q2
91
71.8
3.04
0.15
0.89
2.00
2.82
32.3%
2023Q1
90
71.5
2.96
0.21
0.93
1.81
2.70
34.2%
2022Q4
92
73.0
2.85
0.21
0.79
1.85
2.59
38.9%
2022Q3
92
68.1
2.80
0.24
0.75
1.81
2.58
25.6%
2022Q2
91
73.3
2.64
0.14
0.84
1.66
2.38
22.4%
2022Q1
90
71.8
2.95
0.14
1.03
1.78
2.74
23.7%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
G
—
2024-08-23
Health · complaint
F0580
Immediately tell the resident, the resident's doctor, and a family member of situations (injury/decline/room, etc.) that affect the resident.
D
2024-09-30
2024-08-23
Health · complaint
F0686
Provide appropriate pressure ulcer care and prevent new ulcers from developing.
D
2024-08-20
2023-03-09
Health
F0623
Provide timely notification to the resident, and if applicable to the resident representative and ombudsman, before transfer or discharge, including appeal rights.
B
2023-04-14
2023-03-09
Health
F0641
Ensure each resident receives an accurate assessment.
E
2023-03-28
2023-03-09
Health
F0644
Coordinate assessments with the pre-admission screening and resident review program; and referring for services as needed.
D
2023-03-28
2023-03-09
Health
F0677
Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable.
D
2023-04-14
2023-03-09
Health
F0686
Provide appropriate pressure ulcer care and prevent new ulcers from developing.
E
2023-04-15
2023-03-09
Health
F0695
Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed.
D
2023-04-14
2023-03-09
Health
F0757
Ensure each resident’s drug regimen must be free from unnecessary drugs.
E
2023-04-15
2023-03-09
Health
F0842
Safeguard resident-identifiable information and/or maintain medical records on each resident that are in accordance with accepted professional standards.
D
2023-04-15
2023-03-09
Health
F0867
Set up an ongoing quality assessment and assurance group to review quality deficiencies and develop corrective plans of action.
E
2023-04-15
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
42
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
LONG TERM CARE MANAGEMENT SERVICES LLC
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2011-03-10
current
pecos_ownership
CALCUTT, JOSEPH
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2011-03-10
current
pecos_ownership
JOHN A MCNEILL JR 2012 IRRV TR
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2025-04-29
current
pecos_ownership
LIBERTY HEALTHCARE GROUP LLC
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2025-04-29
current
pecos_ownership
LIBERTY HEALTHCARE MANAGEMENT INC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2005-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
LIBERTY LONG TERM CARE LLC
DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2025-04-29
current
pecos_ownership
LIBERTY PROPERTIES
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
—
2022-10-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
LIBERTY PROPERTIES
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
—
2023-10-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
MCNEILL, JOHN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2011-03-10
current
pecos_ownership
MCNEILL, JOHN
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2005-08-18
current
pecos_ownership
MCNEILL, JOHN
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2005-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
MCNEILL, RONALD
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2011-03-10
current
pecos_ownership
MCNEILL, RONALD
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2005-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
MCNEILL, RONALD
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2005-08-18
current
pecos_ownership
MILLER, ROBERT
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-04-29
current
pecos_ownership
MITCHELL, RAJAN
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2025-04-29
current
pecos_ownership
MITCHELL, RAJAN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-12-08
current
pecos_ownership
OLIVER, ANNA
INDIVIDUAL IS AN OWNER, PARTNER OR TRUSTEE OF ANY ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-12-08
current
pecos_ownership
OSANO, PATIENCE
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-04-29
current
pecos_ownership
OSANO, PATIENCE
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-12-08
current
pecos_ownership
PURVIS, JENNY
INDIVIDUAL IS AN OWNER, PARTNER OR TRUSTEE OF ANY ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-12-08
current
pecos_ownership
RONALD B. AND CYNTHIA J. MCNEILL 2013 IRREVOCABLE TRUST
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2025-04-29
current
pecos_ownership
WILSON, JEFFREY
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2011-03-10
current
pecos_ownership
WILSON, JEFFREY
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-04-29
current
pecos_ownership
JEFFREY WILSON
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
100%
2011-03-10
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOHN MCNEILL
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
100%
2011-03-10
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
LIBERTY PROPERTIES
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
100%
2019-10-01
ended 2020-09-30
hcris_a_8_1
LIBERTY PROPERTIES
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
100%
2020-10-01
ended 2021-09-30
hcris_a_8_1
RONALD MCNEILL
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
100%
2011-03-10
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JEFFREY WILSON
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-04-29
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOHN MCNEILL
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2005-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOHN MCNEILL
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2005-08-18
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOSEPH CALCUTT
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2011-03-10
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
LIBERTY LONG TERM CARE LLC
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2005-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
LIBERTY PROPERTIES
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
—
2021-10-01
ended 2022-09-30
hcris_a_8_1
PATIENCE OSANO
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-04-29
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PATIENCE OSANO
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-12-08
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
RAJAN MITCHELL
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2025-04-29
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
RAJAN MITCHELL
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-12-08
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ROBERT MILLER
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2025-04-29
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
RONALD MCNEILL
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2005-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
RONALD MCNEILL
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2005-08-18
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
5
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-09-30
$2,460,295
—
$516,297
$3,679
$458,315
5
propco
2023-09-30
$2,253,794
—
—
—
$435,801
5
propco
2022-09-30
$2,082,376
—
—
—
—
11
propco
2021-09-30
$1,918,148
—
—
—
—
11
propco
2020-09-30
$1,849,369
—
—
—
—
16
propco
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
34
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 37105
acs median gross
0
$1,255
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 37105
fmr
0
$874
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 37105
acs median gross
1
$775
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 37105
fmr
1
$880
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 37105
acs median gross
2
$1,016
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 37105
fmr
2
$1,136
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 37105
acs median gross
3
$1,081
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 37105
fmr
3
$1,362
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 37105
acs median gross
4
$1,451
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 37105
fmr
4
$1,715
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 37105
acs median gross
$1,017
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 37105
acs recent mover gross
$1,435
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 27330
acs median gross
0
$1,297
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 27330
acs median gross
1
$827
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 27330
acs median gross
2
$1,027
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 27330
acs median gross
3
$1,166
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 27330
acs median gross
4
$1,329
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 27330
acs median gross
$1,039
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 27330
acs recent mover gross
$1,421
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 27330
payment standard 110
0
$1,540
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 27330
payment standard 90
0
$1,260
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 27330
safmr
0
$1,400
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 27330
payment standard 110
1
$1,628
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 27330
payment standard 90
1
$1,332
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 27330
safmr
1
$1,480
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 27330
payment standard 110
2
$1,859
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 27330
payment standard 90
2
$1,521
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 27330
safmr
2
$1,690
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 27330
payment standard 110
3
$2,321
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 27330
payment standard 90
3
$1,899
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 27330
safmr
3
$2,110
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 27330
payment standard 110
4
$2,783
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 27330
payment standard 90
4
$2,277
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 27330
safmr
4
$2,530
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.