Reads as: riskier than 74.9% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
5
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
6 chains
MILLER ROBERT
31 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
4 chains
CALCUTT JOSEPH
34 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
4 chains
MCNEILL JOHN
31 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
4 chains
MCNEILL RONALD
29 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
4 chains
LONG TERM CARE MANAGEMENT SERVICES LLC
33 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
NC median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
2.58
3.08
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.38
0.30
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
2.57
2.93
3.11
—
Weekday total
2.58
3.14
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
102.7
2.58
0.38
0.55
1.64
2.57
28.1%
2025Q3
92
101.6
2.48
0.44
0.48
1.57
2.42
22.0%
2025Q2
91
100.9
2.46
0.45
0.41
1.60
2.38
21.6%
2025Q1
90
103.1
2.29
0.44
0.45
1.41
2.25
9.1%
2024Q4
92
98.3
2.37
0.55
0.31
1.51
2.31
6.9%
2024Q3
92
95.3
2.33
0.54
0.31
1.47
2.28
13.1%
2024Q2
91
100.0
2.42
0.54
0.30
1.58
2.32
27.3%
2024Q1
91
102.3
2.32
0.61
0.23
1.48
2.24
30.7%
2023Q4
92
98.8
2.24
0.59
0.25
1.40
2.17
27.9%
2023Q3
92
94.6
2.09
0.64
0.21
1.24
1.99
11.0%
2023Q2
91
98.3
2.02
0.62
0.26
1.14
1.92
7.4%
2023Q1
90
97.0
2.09
0.66
0.28
1.15
2.11
2.3%
2022Q4
92
96.3
2.16
0.60
0.33
1.23
2.19
0.4%
2022Q3
92
86.5
2.42
0.65
0.35
1.43
2.48
0.3%
2022Q2
91
105.4
2.09
0.55
0.31
1.24
2.04
4.9%
2022Q1
90
104.9
2.15
0.55
0.34
1.26
2.08
4.2%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
E
2025-04-02
2025-04-01
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
L
2025-04-02
2023-12-06
Health · complaint
F0550
Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights.
D
2024-01-02
2023-12-06
Health
F0641
Ensure each resident receives an accurate assessment.
D
2024-01-02
2023-12-06
Health
F0644
Coordinate assessments with the pre-admission screening and resident review program; and referring for services as needed.
D
2024-01-02
2023-12-06
Health · complaint
F0677
Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable.
D
2024-01-02
2023-12-06
Health · complaint
F0686
Provide appropriate pressure ulcer care and prevent new ulcers from developing.
D
2024-01-02
2023-12-06
Health · complaint
F0725
Provide enough nursing staff every day to meet the needs of every resident; and have a licensed nurse in charge on each shift.
D
2024-01-02
2023-12-06
Health
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
E
2024-01-02
2023-12-06
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
E
2024-01-02
2023-12-06
Health
F0867
Set up an ongoing quality assessment and assurance group to review quality deficiencies and develop corrective plans of action.
E
2024-01-02
2022-06-10
Health
F0550
Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights.
H
2022-07-04
2022-06-10
Health
F0554
Allow residents to self-administer drugs if determined clinically appropriate.
D
2022-07-04
2022-06-10
Health
F0558
Reasonably accommodate the needs and preferences of each resident.
D
2022-07-04
2022-06-10
Health
F0561
Honor the resident's right to and the facility must promote and facilitate resident self-determination through support of resident choice.
E
2022-07-04
2022-06-10
Health
F0578
Honor the resident's right to request, refuse, and/or discontinue treatment, to participate in or refuse to participate in experimental research, and to formulate an advance directive.
D
2022-07-04
2022-06-10
Health
F0583
Keep residents' personal and medical records private and confidential.
D
2022-07-04
2022-06-10
Health
F0622
Not transfer or discharge a resident without an adequate reason; and must provide documentation and convey specific information when a resident is transferred or discharged.
D
2022-07-04
2022-06-10
Health
F0641
Ensure each resident receives an accurate assessment.
D
2022-07-04
2022-06-10
Health
F0644
Coordinate assessments with the pre-admission screening and resident review program; and referring for services as needed.
D
2022-07-04
2022-06-10
Health
F0657
Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals.
D
2022-07-04
2022-06-10
Health
F0677
Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable.
E
2022-07-04
2022-06-10
Health
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
D
2022-07-04
2022-06-10
Health
F0686
Provide appropriate pressure ulcer care and prevent new ulcers from developing.
D
2022-07-04
2022-06-10
Health
F0695
Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed.
D
2022-07-04
2022-06-10
Health
F0725
Provide enough nursing staff every day to meet the needs of every resident; and have a licensed nurse in charge on each shift.
H
2022-07-04
2022-06-10
Health
F0810
Provide special eating equipment and utensils for residents who need them and appropriate assistance.
D
2022-07-04
2022-06-10
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
E
2022-07-04
2022-06-10
Health
F0842
Safeguard resident-identifiable information and/or maintain medical records on each resident that are in accordance with accepted professional standards.
D
2022-07-04
2022-06-10
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
F
2022-07-04
2022-06-10
Health
F0888
Ensure staff are vaccinated for COVID-19
C
2022-07-04
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
20
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
LONG TERM CARE MANAGEMENT SERVICES LLC
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2011-03-10
current
pecos_ownership
CALCUTT, JOSEPH
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2011-03-10
current
pecos_ownership
GRANDY, MICHELLE
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2009-08-03
current
pecos_ownership
LIBERTY PROPERTIES
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
—
2023-10-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
LIBERTY PROPERTIES
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
—
2022-10-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
MCNEILL, JOHN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2011-03-10
current
pecos_ownership
MCNEILL, RONALD
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2011-03-10
current
pecos_ownership
MILLER, ROBERT
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2024-09-01
current
pecos_ownership
PURIFOY, PENNY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2011-03-10
current
pecos_ownership
WILSON, JEFFREY
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2011-03-10
current
pecos_ownership
JEFFREY WILSON
CORPORATE OFFICER
100%
2011-03-10
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOSEPH CALCUTT
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
100%
2011-03-10
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
LIBERTY PROPERTIES
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
100%
2020-10-01
ended 2021-09-30
hcris_a_8_1
LIBERTY PROPERTIES
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
100%
2019-10-01
ended 2020-09-30
hcris_a_8_1
PENNY PURIFOY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
100%
2011-03-10
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOHN MCNEILL
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
50%
2011-03-10
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
RONALD MCNEILL
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
50%
2011-03-10
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
LIBERTY PROPERTIES
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
—
2021-10-01
ended 2022-09-30
hcris_a_8_1
MICHELLE GRANDY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2009-08-03
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ROBERT MILLER
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2024-09-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
5
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-09-30
$3,722,066
—
$812,128
$24,293
$323,193
5
propco
2023-09-30
$2,718,048
—
—
—
$104,839
5
propco
2022-09-30
$2,988,101
—
—
—
—
11
propco
2021-09-30
$2,979,162
—
—
—
—
11
propco
2020-09-30
$2,818,613
—
—
—
—
16
propco
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
33
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 37021
acs median gross
0
$1,125
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 37021
fmr
0
$1,227
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 37021
acs median gross
1
$1,235
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 37021
fmr
1
$1,429
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 37021
acs median gross
2
$1,412
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 37021
fmr
2
$1,567
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 37021
acs median gross
3
$1,459
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 37021
fmr
3
$1,905
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 37021
acs median gross
4
$2,654
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 37021
fmr
4
$2,629
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 37021
acs median gross
5
$2,777
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 37021
acs median gross
$1,362
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 37021
acs recent mover gross
$1,794
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 28715
acs median gross
0
$1,613
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 28715
acs median gross
2
$1,211
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 28715
acs median gross
3
$1,124
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 28715
acs median gross
4
$3,173
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 28715
acs median gross
$1,216
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 28715
payment standard 110
0
$1,562
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28715
payment standard 90
0
$1,278
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28715
safmr
0
$1,420
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28715
payment standard 110
1
$1,826
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28715
payment standard 90
1
$1,494
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28715
safmr
1
$1,660
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28715
payment standard 110
2
$2,002
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28715
payment standard 90
2
$1,638
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28715
safmr
2
$1,820
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28715
payment standard 110
3
$2,431
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28715
payment standard 90
3
$1,989
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28715
safmr
3
$2,210
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28715
payment standard 110
4
$3,355
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28715
payment standard 90
4
$2,745
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28715
safmr
4
$3,050
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.